On 11/24/06, Eric Yost <eyost1132@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
______ You are given a proposition: "All swans are white". You are given three boxes to test the proposition. You open Box 1: in it is a white swan. Box 2: is empty. Box 3: you are not allowed to open. Until, that is, you have found a way to say _as a probability_ what should _probably_ be in the box.
As any decent statistician will tell you two observations are far too small a sample to say anything about the probability of a third. John -- John McCreery The Word Works, Ltd., Yokohama, JAPAN http://www.wordworks.jp/ US CITIZEN ABROAD? YOU'RE THE DECIDER! Register to Vote in '06 Elections www.VoteFromAbroad.org ------------------------------------------------------------------ To change your Lit-Ideas settings (subscribe/unsub, vacation on/off, digest on/off), visit www.andreas.com/faq-lit-ideas.html
