Taking a deeper look at this than usual this year again, I’ve had a few
conversations with people in the game recently too which has influenced my
thinking on this.
It’s a strange draft with a lack of true superstar quality at the top, there
are some really good players at the top of this group, but a lot of players in
the first round will be good to above average pros and nothing more than that -
there seems to be a lot of players whose skill sets we seem to see every year.
There are very few “unicorns” with skill sets or workout numbers that you only
see once every few years. As a result, you can throw every mock draft you’ve
read over the last 4 months in the bin because there is no consensus and 32
teams will have 32 wildly different top tens. Round one is going to shock
people who’s research has been via mock drafts. Nobody knows anything. The
strength of this draft is in the middle rounds, and there are several positions
with good depth into the 4th round so teams with multiple picks from rounds two
through four (Ravens, Chiefs) have an opportunity to draft well here for depth
with future starting potential. And because of many players being granted an
extra year because of Covid disruption, there are a higher number of overaged
seniors this year and it’s a deeper class as a result of that, too.
I’ve actually had more time to look at the prospects this year, here’s some
thoughts….
Quarterback — No generational type QB’s this year, but as always, the success
of any rookie QB depends heavily on the scheme and philosophies of the offense,
the coaching and the surrounding cast to make a good fit and to that end, there
are some talented players here and you can bet that all 32 teams will have a
different order on their board for these guys, opinions are differing wildly on
some of these players. Kenny Pickett is fundamentally sound and intelligent,
nothing flashy but has the instincts you need. I think he’ll be a solid, above
average NFL starter in the Matt Hasselback / Derek Carr mould. Malik Willis is
raw and developmental, he has incredible athleticism and is a natural thrower
with a rocket launcher for an arm, but he needs to mature, he struggles with
recognition at times and his timing and accuracy are inconsistent, he needs a
lot of work in throwing from the pocket and stares down receivers too often.
80% of his problems are with the mental processing with what he sees and I
think you need to cut the field in half with his reads initially. He’ll make
plays for you but people need to be patient with him. I like the Jalen Hurts
comparisons here as a starting point for his career. Desmond Ridder is similar,
the biggest knock on Ridder is accuracy, which is also one of the toughest
things to fix in the pros, he needs to work on his timing and be more
consistent with his pocket setup, but he’s a calm presence, a good, mature
student of the game and is more advanced than Willis in his poise and command
of the offense he ran. Matt Corral is intriguing, he was hampered in my opinion
by a short range screens and slants offense, he ran a rigid RPO system and he
ran it well, but he needs to be more exposed in an offense that isn’t so
pre-determined in it’s philosophy. He has a live arm and reads the field well,
but there are several fundamental things about pro offenses he needs to master
before he can start, some scouts say there are Johnny Manziel similarities with
Corral when you talk about his off the field demeanour. Sam Howell’s issues are
more technical, he needs to develop more as a pocket passer and learn to read
the field more, but is a high character, tough kid with a good arm, I like the
Baker Mayfield comparisons here and someone also likened him to Joe Flacco or a
more talented Gardner Minshew. Carson Strong is a natural passer with medical
question marks around his knee injury and mechanical issues, his ceiling is
lower than the others, but he should have a good career as a backup and be
picked in the second half of the draft.
Sleeper:- Not really a sleeper as he is well known, but Bailey Zappe of Western
Kentucky is a solid, unathletic, unflashy player with a good feel for playing
the position and good intangibles. He should be a decade long career backup.
Running Back — There doesn’t appear to be an all around back in this year’s
class, there are a few backs who do certain things very well, but not enough to
be picked in round one. The best three are Kenneth Walker who is a powerful
runner who is a poor blocker and receiver, Breece Hall who has room for
improvement as a receiver and blocker but is a really strong zone runner and
Isaiah Spiller, who has good patience and vision, but like the others isn’t
much of a breakaway threat. All three should become solid, capable starters,
but doubts exist whether they are pure three down backs and they strike me as
the kind of backs you can find in rounds 2-3 of the draft every year. There are
other toolsy backs as well, James Cook is a threat as a slot receiver and his
versatility is his best trait, I like Dameon Pierce, a power back with attitude
who runs with violence and Brian Robinson and Kyren Williams are more like
third down or complimentary backs. Rachaad White is a terrific receiver, Pierre
Strong has great speed and is one of those guys that if you can block for him,
he knows where to go and Hassan Haskins is a solid workhorse. Like I said, this
group is just a bunch of guys with no one really standing out.
Sleeper:- Tyler Badie of Missouri is undersized, but has great assets with
balance and vision and catches the ball well, he could become a very productive
contributor in the right scheme.
Wide Receiver — This is another solid receiver class without having a top ten
overall talent, there’s an abundance of number two receivers or slot guys here.
Collectively, this group has a lot of slim, light, small receivers and the
bigger receivers in the class aren’t as fast. Garrett Wilson is an excellent
player in need of some technical improvements in his route running, but I think
he’s the most sure-fire top end receiver in this group. Jameson Williams would
have been the top receiver had he not torn his ACL in the national championship
game, I think he’s worth the risk though, Drake London is a bigger, stronger
receiver who dominates in contested situations, and Chris Olave is dependable.
Treylon Burks is outstanding after the catch and can line up anywhere and Jahan
Dotson is the best route runner in this class and reminds me a little of Tyler
Lockett, but needs to get stronger. Skyy Moore is a good slot prospect and
Christian Watson has unicorn triangle numbers but needs to add polish, if he
can get more consistency, he could be very interesting to watch, he’s very raw,
but could become very productive in the right setup. I like John Metchie’s
reliability, not a deep threat and he too is coming off an ACL injury, but he’s
solid. Keep an eye on George Pickens who missed most of last season with an ACL
injury, but could be special - he is also one of the nastiest blocking
receivers I’ve ever seen and one who plays to the echo of the whistle. There
are many others, but expect to see these guys in the top two rounds, other
names I like are David Bell, Khalil Shakir, Bo Melton and Tyquan Thornton, each
can do their own thing well.
Sleeper:-Justyn Ross, Clemson - major medical question marks as he works his
way back from a severe neck injury and surgery, but pre-injury he was looking
like a generational talent.
Tight End — A down year, with the best ones to be found in the round 2/3 range.
Trey McBride should be a decent pro, he does everything effectively at a pro
level without being an outstanding athlete and he’s a good blocker too, he
reminds me a little of Jason Witten. Greg Dulcich needs work as a blocker, but
he’s an excellent receiver and does well with the ball in his hands. Jeremy
Ruckert has upside and needs to continue to work on blocking, Jelani Woods is a
big, athletic target who can get deep and Charlie Kolar is a red zone weapon
without being particularly athletic. Keep an eye on Jalen Wydermyer too, he
came into the season as a possible first round pick but his stock has plummeted
after testing poorly and running a 5.02. Hard to believe he won’t get a chance
somewhere based on his on field play, but he might not be drafted.
Sleeper:- Isaiah Likely, Coastal Carolina - very athletic receiver and a great
route runner.
Tackle — Great year for tackles with starting depth well into day three of the
draft, especially on the right side. The top three have separated themselves
from the others for me Ikem Ekwonu needs some refinement but has elite
potential at the next level thanks to his run blocking, Evan Neal needs to work
on his balance and sustaining his blocks, but his size and athleticism mean he
should be a long time pro starter at right tackle if nothing else, and Charles
Cross needs to get stronger, but he’s already the best pure pass protector in
this group and is generally mean, nasty and physical. I have concerns about
Trevor Penning, in the tape I watched I saw him miss too many times, but the
size and athleticism are very attractive and he should in time do well - he’s
mean and nasty too, but he has to control that. Bernhard Raimann is still
developing but is a good pass protector, Tyler Smith is raw and talented and is
more of a down the line starter, but he’s an athletic pull and trap tackle and
Daniel Faalele might be too big to be anything more than a pure right tackle.
Sleeper:- Max Mitchell, Louisiana - Plays better than he tested, should be a
decent backup in the pros.
Guard — I love the top two here, Kenyon Green needs to cut down on his
penalties, but he’s an absolute destroyer who will take out anything in his way
in the running game and Zion Johnson is one of my favourite players in this
draft, he’s versatile and can play either guard or tackle and has reps at
center too, intelligent, strong and powerful in both the run and pass games, he
should have a nice 15 year career in the NFL. Other names to watch include
Darian Kinnard, who is already a dominant run blocker in need of refinement in
the passing game, and Luke Goedeke, who is inexperienced but should start as a
pure guard.
Sleeper:- Ed Ingram, LSU - some off the field questions and needs to clean up
some of his technique, but he’s very strong and powerful.
Center - Tyler Linderbaum is the latest first round pick out of Iowa to be
staring at a long NFL career, if anything he is slightly undersized, and he may
have issues at times in pass protection as a result, but as a technician who
gets out of his stance quickly and a powerful run blocker, he’s one of the best
center prospects in a while. Cam Jurgens might be more of a zone scheme center,
lacks power, but he has mobility and is tough. Dylan Parham is technically
sound and should start in time.
Sleeper:- Cole Strange, Chattanooga - Quick and technically solid.
Edge rushers - Aiden Hutchinson reminds me of TJ Watt did out of Wisconsin, a
high motor player who has average NFL measurables but needs a bit of
refinement. Of course, TJ was picked 30th overall and the light went on in a
major way and he became the best pass rusher in the league, Hutchinson has to
hope that with pro coaching he can make a similar impact, which is why many
have him going number one overall. Travon Walker is still a work in progress as
a pass rusher, but as a wrecking ball athlete and run defender he is already an
elite prospect, he has a great motor and is the kind of player who you just
turn loose and watch them go. Kayvon Thibodeaux is splitting opinion, his
attitude, inflated ego and questions about his motor are red flags to some, but
he plays most of the the time in the opponents backfield, so there are rewards
to this risk. Having studied him myself, I see nothing in his on field play to
suggest that he takes plays off, but I can’t speak of his attitude or
demeanour, one thing I noticed was that when he gets stonewalled, he needs to
dig deeper and fight through it, he disappeared for stretches. Jermaine Johnson
isn’t an elite athlete, but he is technically excellent, maybe his best spot is
as a 3-4 OLB, George Karlaftis is a solid 4-3 end in the Ryan Kerrigan mould,
more of a strength over speed guy, Arnold Ebiketie is a very interesting
prospect, a little raw, undersized and inconsistent, but he has great numbers
and a great motor too. Logan Hall might project inside at times, but he’s
powerful and aggressive. Boye Mafe hasn’t put it all together yet especially in
the run game, but when he does, watch out. Cam Thomas is the second coming of
Maxx Crosby. Finally, David Ojabo has had his draft prospects wrecked by his
pro day achilles injury, but I would have absolutely no hesitation drafting him
in round two, he dominated at times last year at Michigan, has a big upside and
is well worth stashing for a year as he rehabs, he reminds me of Leonard
Little.
Sleeper:- Josh Paschal, Kentucky - Might have the best motor in the draft, is
certainly one of the best character guys in this draft who was admired greatly
by everyone I spoke to, not particularly athletic, but he’s just polished and
versatile and always seems to make plays.
Defensive Linemen — Georgia dominates this group too, Devonte Wyatt is just an
aggressive, versatile, strong, quick and powerful interior lineman, needs to
work on his play diagnosis a little bit, but he can play anywhere and will do
well, his first step and penetration are rare but overall he is just solid all
around with very few holes. Jordan Davis is one of the freakiest athletes in
NFL combine history, there are real limitations to his game, he is at the
moment a two down player and is not a pass rusher, but he is incredible at
clogging the middle of the line taking out a double team and swimming down the
line to make a tackle. He is a dominant run defender and will be drafted with
that role in mind. Travis Jones is a similar player to Davis, needs some
technique refinement in terms of how he uses his hands, but he’s another run
stuffer who should do well. Perrion Winfrey and Demarvin Leal lack consistency,
but they flash real star potential at times, they are both good at playing the
gaps to get into the backfield, there are also minor character concerns around
both and Phidarian Mathis is a big unit with some range about him too, not
athletic, but powerful. Matthew Butler is another guy who can play the double
team well too and Zach Carter and Eyioma Uwazurike are classic 3-4, 5 technique
ends in the Tuitt mould.
Sleeper: Otto Ogbonnia, UCLA - raw developmental type who plays with power.
Linebackers — I love Nakobe Dean, he’s undersized, but is whip smart and plays
like a heat seeking missile, I think he’s stronger and more powerful than he
looks, too. I’d have him on my defense in a heartbeat. Devin Lloyd plays fast
and needs to get stronger, but he’s a three down linebacker who can line up
anywhere and make an impact. Quay Walker is another Georgia product, who is
still developing and needs work in pass coverage, but he’s just a destroyer
against the run. Chad Muma is big and rangy, he’s not as athletic as those
already mentioned, but he diagnoses well and should become a 4-3 MLB starter in
time. Christian Harris flatters to deceive at times, he looks the part but gets
caught out of position too often. He’s versatile though and should be fine in
time. Leo Chanel is a thumper against the run who struggles in coverage. Keep
an eye on Damone Clark, who slotted in towards the middle of the draft before
it was discovered he needed neck surgery at the combine and will be on the
shelf in 2022, he is worth a late gamble or free agency signing. Troy Andersen
is a good guy in space.
Sleeper:- Darrian Beavers, Cincinnati - Big, solid tackling 3-4 ILB
Cornerbacks - Ahmad Gardner is from the school of sticky man to man corners who
can take one half of the field away. He’s really good, but I think he’s being
overhyped a little here, I’d like to have seen him go up against the best
receivers in the country before I would have been more comfortable in anointing
him as the best corner here. Derek Stingley has been banged up for two years
now, but his freshman campaign was spectacular. If healthy, he’s a perennial
Pro Bowler and I think he’ll be better than Gardner, too. Trent McDuffie is one
of the safest picks in this draft, he doesn’t have prototypical size, but he’s
got everything else the pros look for in a corner, his attention to detail and
technique are flawless, I was really impressed by him. Andrew Booth is a little
up and down, but is a good athlete who finds the ball very easily as a zone
corner. Kaiir Elam is a bigger corner and plays well in press coverage, his
athleticism doesn’t always translate to playmaking and he doesn’t play the run
well at all, but he has good intangibles. Kyler Gordon saw a lot of action
playing opposite McDuffie, but he’s tough and physical and is a further
starter. Roger McCreary can play the nickel or outside and has good ball skills
and Cam Taylor-Britt is more of an athlete this point but has the tools to work
with. Marcus Jones is the best pure slot corner in this group.
Sleeper:- Tariq Woolen, UTSA - very, very raw, but I’ve never seen a 6-4, 205
pound corner run 4.26 before.
Safety - My vote for best player in this draft goes to Kyle Hamilton, he is a
game changing player you have to account for on every play, his range, his
physical nature, his tackling and ball skills are tremendous. Someone is going
to build a defense around his unique skill set like the Steelers built their
defense around Troy’s skill set and be very, very happy. Another one of my
favourite players in this draft is Daxton Hill, he plays in the slot, deep or
box safety and has the mental capacity to handle all three at the next level.
Size is average, but he is tough and can do it all. I like the next two guys,
too, Lewis Cine lacks the great ball skills, but he is an absolute hammer
hitter and plays the run so well and is an improving talent whilst Jalen Pitre
lacks speed, but is a great box safety and blitzer and has enough to get by in
coverage for now, he reminds me a little of Tyrann Mathieu. Jaquan Brisker is a
relatively safe option as a strong safety, nothing special, just solid, needs
to get better in tackling but is alert and rangy in coverage, he’s a little
injury prone and is compared to another ex-PSU’er in Adrian Amos. Nick Cross is
a solid run defender but doesn’t play to his timed speed, Bryan Cook needs to
be better in coverage but is a good box tackler overall.
Sleeper:- JT Woods, Baylor - Gets caught out at times, but he does well against
both the run and the pass.
Specialists - We could actually see 5 specialists drafted, it begins with the
ridiculous Matt Araiza, who has the most powerful leg of any punter I’ve ever
seen and should go in round three. Jordan Stout and Jake Camarda should also be
drafted as punters, whilst Cade York, Gabe Brkic and Jonathan Garibay are
draftable kickers, all three of them have potential to stick around the league
for a while.
All-Dave team
(Players who would feature in an All-Dave team if I would put one together)
Dameon Pierce, RB Florida
David Bell, WR Purdue
Zion Johnson, G/T Boston College
Kenyon Green, G/T Texas A&M
David Ojabo, LB Michigan
Nakobe Dean, ILB Georgia
Dax Hill, S Michigan
Lewis Cine, S Georgia
Matt Araiza, P San Diego State
And this year’s name of the draft is Southern Utah ILB La’akea
Kaho’Ohanohano-Davis and I will buy his jersey in a heartbeat just to see them
squeeze all those letters onto the nameplate. Honourable mention must go to
Auburn, for their safety pairing of Smoke Monday and Bydarrius Knighten along
with their tackle Brodarious Hamm. Good effort by them this year.
Thoughts on the Steelers to follow…...
