Agreed, Marty, great stuff from Dave as always. Looking forward to his
Steelers write-up.
Streetr
On Wed, Apr 27, 2022 at 8:15 AM <moaks@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Top shelf stuff as always Dave. I don't follow the draft like I used to.
It used to be a niche thing with a handful of knowledgeable writers.
Buschbaum, Kiper, Ourlads, Bob McGinn. And our own David Reid of course!
These guys actually wrote about what they watched. Most of what is written
today is based off of what writers read about.
Thanks for this.
Marty
-----------------------------------------
From: "David Reid" " <("davidreidb46")>
To: "Steelers List"
Cc:
Sent: Wednesday April 27 2022 3:35:58AM
Subject: [steelers_pb] 2022 Draft Preview
Taking a deeper look at this than usual this year again, I’ve had a few
conversations with people in the game recently too which has influenced my
thinking on this.
It’s a strange draft with a lack of true superstar quality at the top,
there are some really good players at the top of this group, but a lot of
players in the first round will be good to above average pros and nothing
more than that - there seems to be a lot of players whose skill sets we
seem to see every year. There are very few “unicorns” with skill sets or
workout numbers that you only see once every few years. As a result, you
can throw every mock draft you’ve read over the last 4 months in the bin
because there is no consensus and 32 teams will have 32 wildly different
top tens. Round one is going to shock people who’s research has been via
mock drafts. Nobody knows anything. The strength of this draft is in the
middle rounds, and there are several positions with good depth into the 4th
round so teams with multiple picks from rounds two through four (Ravens,
Chiefs) have an opportunity to draft well here for depth with future
starting potential. And because of many players being granted an extra year
because of Covid disruption, there are a higher number of overaged seniors
this year and it’s a deeper class as a result of that, too.
I’ve actually had more time to look at the prospects this year, here’s
some thoughts….
Quarterback — No generational type QB’s this year, but as always, the
success of any rookie QB depends heavily on the scheme and philosophies of
the offense, the coaching and the surrounding cast to make a good fit and
to that end, there are some talented players here and you can bet that all
32 teams will have a different order on their board for these guys,
opinions are differing wildly on some of these players. Kenny Pickett is
fundamentally sound and intelligent, nothing flashy but has the instincts
you need. I think he’ll be a solid, above average NFL starter in the Matt
Hasselback / Derek Carr mould. Malik Willis is raw and developmental, he
has incredible athleticism and is a natural thrower with a rocket launcher
for an arm, but he needs to mature, he struggles with recognition at times
and his timing and accuracy are inconsistent, he needs a lot of work in
throwing from the pocket and stares down receivers too often. 80% of his
problems are with the mental processing with what he sees and I think you
need to cut the field in half with his reads initially. He’ll make plays
for you but people need to be patient with him. I like the Jalen Hurts
comparisons here as a starting point for his career. Desmond Ridder is
similar, the biggest knock on Ridder is accuracy, which is also one of the
toughest things to fix in the pros, he needs to work on his timing and be
more consistent with his pocket setup, but he’s a calm presence, a good,
mature student of the game and is more advanced than Willis in his poise
and command of the offense he ran. Matt Corral is intriguing, he was
hampered in my opinion by a short range screens and slants offense, he ran
a rigid RPO system and he ran it well, but he needs to be more exposed in
an offense that isn’t so pre-determined in it’s philosophy. He has a live
arm and reads the field well, but there are several fundamental things
about pro offenses he needs to master before he can start, some scouts say
there are Johnny Manziel similarities with Corral when you talk about his
off the field demeanour. Sam Howell’s issues are more technical, he needs
to develop more as a pocket passer and learn to read the field more, but is
a high character, tough kid with a good arm, I like the Baker Mayfield
comparisons here and someone also likened him to Joe Flacco or a more
talented Gardner Minshew. Carson Strong is a natural passer with medical
question marks around his knee injury and mechanical issues, his ceiling is
lower than the others, but he should have a good career as a backup and be
picked in the second half of the draft.
Sleeper:- Not really a sleeper as he is well known, but Bailey Zappe of
Western Kentucky is a solid, unathletic, unflashy player with a good feel
for playing the position and good intangibles. He should be a decade long
career backup.
Running Back — There doesn’t appear to be an all around back in this
year’s class, there are a few backs who do certain things very well, but
not enough to be picked in round one. The best three are Kenneth Walker who
is a powerful runner who is a poor blocker and receiver, Breece Hall who
has room for improvement as a receiver and blocker but is a really strong
zone runner and Isaiah Spiller, who has good patience and vision, but like
the others isn’t much of a breakaway threat. All three should become solid,
capable starters, but doubts exist whether they are pure three down backs
and they strike me as the kind of backs you can find in rounds 2-3 of the
draft every year. There are other toolsy backs as well, James Cook is a
threat as a slot receiver and his versatility is his best trait, I like
Dameon Pierce, a power back with attitude who runs with violence and Brian
Robinson and Kyren Williams are more like third down or complimentary
backs. Rachaad White is a terrific receiver, Pierre Strong has great speed
and is one of those guys that if you can block for him, he knows where to
go and Hassan Haskins is a solid workhorse. Like I said, this group is just
a bunch of guys with no one really standing out.
Sleeper:- Tyler Badie of Missouri is undersized, but has great assets
with balance and vision and catches the ball well, he could become a very
productive contributor in the right scheme.
Wide Receiver — This is another solid receiver class without having a top
ten overall talent, there’s an abundance of number two receivers or slot
guys here. Collectively, this group has a lot of slim, light, small
receivers and the bigger receivers in the class aren’t as fast. Garrett
Wilson is an excellent player in need of some technical improvements in his
route running, but I think he’s the most sure-fire top end receiver in this
group. Jameson Williams would have been the top receiver had he not torn
his ACL in the national championship game, I think he’s worth the risk
though, Drake London is a bigger, stronger receiver who dominates in
contested situations, and Chris Olave is dependable. Treylon Burks is
outstanding after the catch and can line up anywhere and Jahan Dotson is
the best route runner in this class and reminds me a little of Tyler
Lockett, but needs to get stronger. Skyy Moore is a good slot prospect and
Christian Watson has unicorn triangle numbers but needs to add polish, if
he can get more consistency, he could be very interesting to watch, he’s
very raw, but could become very productive in the right setup. I like John
Metchie’s reliability, not a deep threat and he too is coming off an ACL
injury, but he’s solid. Keep an eye on George Pickens who missed most of
last season with an ACL injury, but could be special - he is also one of
the nastiest blocking receivers I’ve ever seen and one who plays to the
echo of the whistle. There are many others, but expect to see these guys in
the top two rounds, other names I like are David Bell, Khalil Shakir, Bo
Melton and Tyquan Thornton, each can do their own thing well.
Sleeper:-Justyn Ross, Clemson - major medical question marks as he works
his way back from a severe neck injury and surgery, but pre-injury he was
looking like a generational talent.
Tight End — A down year, with the best ones to be found in the round 2/3
range. Trey McBride should be a decent pro, he does everything effectively
at a pro level without being an outstanding athlete and he’s a good blocker
too, he reminds me a little of Jason Witten. Greg Dulcich needs work as a
blocker, but he’s an excellent receiver and does well with the ball in his
hands. Jeremy Ruckert has upside and needs to continue to work on blocking,
Jelani Woods is a big, athletic target who can get deep and Charlie Kolar
is a red zone weapon without being particularly athletic. Keep an eye on
Jalen Wydermyer too, he came into the season as a possible first round pick
but his stock has plummeted after testing poorly and running a 5.02. Hard
to believe he won’t get a chance somewhere based on his on field play, but
he might not be drafted.
Sleeper:- Isaiah Likely, Coastal Carolina - very athletic receiver and a
great route runner.
Tackle — Great year for tackles with starting depth well into day three of
the draft, especially on the right side. The top three have separated
themselves from the others for me Ikem Ekwonu needs some refinement but has
elite potential at the next level thanks to his run blocking, Evan Neal
needs to work on his balance and sustaining his blocks, but his size and
athleticism mean he should be a long time pro starter at right tackle if
nothing else, and Charles Cross needs to get stronger, but he’s already the
best pure pass protector in this group and is generally mean, nasty and
physical. I have concerns about Trevor Penning, in the tape I watched I saw
him miss too many times, but the size and athleticism are very attractive
and he should in time do well - he’s mean and nasty too, but he has to
control that. Bernhard Raimann is still developing but is a good pass
protector, Tyler Smith is raw and talented and is more of a down the line
starter, but he’s an athletic pull and trap tackle and Daniel Faalele might
be too big to be anything more than a pure right tackle.
Sleeper:- Max Mitchell, Louisiana - Plays better than he tested, should be
a decent backup in the pros.
Guard — I love the top two here, Kenyon Green needs to cut down on his
penalties, but he’s an absolute destroyer who will take out anything in his
way in the running game and Zion Johnson is one of my favourite players in
this draft, he’s versatile and can play either guard or tackle and has reps
at center too, intelligent, strong and powerful in both the run and pass
games, he should have a nice 15 year career in the NFL. Other names to
watch include Darian Kinnard, who is already a dominant run blocker in need
of refinement in the passing game, and Luke Goedeke, who is inexperienced
but should start as a pure guard.
Sleeper:- Ed Ingram, LSU - some off the field questions and needs to clean
up some of his technique, but he’s very strong and powerful.
Center - Tyler Linderbaum is the latest first round pick out of Iowa to be
staring at a long NFL career, if anything he is slightly undersized, and he
may have issues at times in pass protection as a result, but as a
technician who gets out of his stance quickly and a powerful run blocker,
he’s one of the best center prospects in a while. Cam Jurgens might be more
of a zone scheme center, lacks power, but he has mobility and is tough.
Dylan Parham is technically sound and should start in time.
Sleeper:- Cole Strange, Chattanooga - Quick and technically solid.
Edge rushers - Aiden Hutchinson reminds me of TJ Watt did out of
Wisconsin, a high motor player who has average NFL measurables but needs a
bit of refinement. Of course, TJ was picked 30th overall and the light went
on in a major way and he became the best pass rusher in the league,
Hutchinson has to hope that with pro coaching he can make a similar impact,
which is why many have him going number one overall. Travon Walker is still
a work in progress as a pass rusher, but as a wrecking ball athlete and run
defender he is already an elite prospect, he has a great motor and is the
kind of player who you just turn loose and watch them go. Kayvon Thibodeaux
is splitting opinion, his attitude, inflated ego and questions about his
motor are red flags to some, but he plays most of the the time in the
opponents backfield, so there are rewards to this risk. Having studied him
myself, I see nothing in his on field play to suggest that he takes plays
off, but I can’t speak of his attitude or demeanour, one thing I noticed
was that when he gets stonewalled, he needs to dig deeper and fight through
it, he disappeared for stretches. Jermaine Johnson isn’t an elite athlete,
but he is technically excellent, maybe his best spot is as a 3-4 OLB,
George Karlaftis is a solid 4-3 end in the Ryan Kerrigan mould, more of a
strength over speed guy, Arnold Ebiketie is a very interesting prospect, a
little raw, undersized and inconsistent, but he has great numbers and a
great motor too. Logan Hall might project inside at times, but he’s
powerful and aggressive. Boye Mafe hasn’t put it all together yet
especially in the run game, but when he does, watch out. Cam Thomas is the
second coming of Maxx Crosby. Finally, David Ojabo has had his draft
prospects wrecked by his pro day achilles injury, but I would have
absolutely no hesitation drafting him in round two, he dominated at times
last year at Michigan, has a big upside and is well worth stashing for a
year as he rehabs, he reminds me of Leonard Little.
Sleeper:- Josh Paschal, Kentucky - Might have the best motor in the draft,
is certainly one of the best character guys in this draft who was admired
greatly by everyone I spoke to, not particularly athletic, but he’s just
polished and versatile and always seems to make plays.
Defensive Linemen — Georgia dominates this group too, Devonte Wyatt is
just an aggressive, versatile, strong, quick and powerful interior lineman,
needs to work on his play diagnosis a little bit, but he can play anywhere
and will do well, his first step and penetration are rare but overall he is
just solid all around with very few holes. Jordan Davis is one of the
freakiest athletes in NFL combine history, there are real limitations to
his game, he is at the moment a two down player and is not a pass rusher,
but he is incredible at clogging the middle of the line taking out a double
team and swimming down the line to make a tackle. He is a dominant run
defender and will be drafted with that role in mind. Travis Jones is a
similar player to Davis, needs some technique refinement in terms of how he
uses his hands, but he’s another run stuffer who should do well. Perrion
Winfrey and Demarvin Leal lack consistency, but they flash real star
potential at times, they are both good at playing the gaps to get into the
backfield, there are also minor character concerns around both and
Phidarian Mathis is a big unit with some range about him too, not athletic,
but powerful. Matthew Butler is another guy who can play the double team
well too and Zach Carter and Eyioma Uwazurike are classic 3-4, 5 technique
ends in the Tuitt mould.
Sleeper: Otto Ogbonnia, UCLA - raw developmental type who plays with power.
Linebackers — I love Nakobe Dean, he’s undersized, but is whip smart and
plays like a heat seeking missile, I think he’s stronger and more powerful
than he looks, too. I’d have him on my defense in a heartbeat. Devin Lloyd
plays fast and needs to get stronger, but he’s a three down linebacker who
can line up anywhere and make an impact. Quay Walker is another Georgia
product, who is still developing and needs work in pass coverage, but he’s
just a destroyer against the run. Chad Muma is big and rangy, he’s not as
athletic as those already mentioned, but he diagnoses well and should
become a 4-3 MLB starter in time. Christian Harris flatters to deceive at
times, he looks the part but gets caught out of position too often. He’s
versatile though and should be fine in time. Leo Chanel is a thumper
against the run who struggles in coverage. Keep an eye on Damone Clark, who
slotted in towards the middle of the draft before it was discovered he
needed neck surgery at the combine and will be on the shelf in 2022, he is
worth a late gamble or free agency signing. Troy Andersen is a good guy in
space.
Sleeper:- Darrian Beavers, Cincinnati - Big, solid tackling 3-4 ILB
Cornerbacks - Ahmad Gardner is from the school of sticky man to man
corners who can take one half of the field away. He’s really good, but I
think he’s being overhyped a little here, I’d like to have seen him go up
against the best receivers in the country before I would have been more
comfortable in anointing him as the best corner here. Derek Stingley has
been banged up for two years now, but his freshman campaign was
spectacular. If healthy, he’s a perennial Pro Bowler and I think he’ll be
better than Gardner, too. Trent McDuffie is one of the safest picks in this
draft, he doesn’t have prototypical size, but he’s got everything else the
pros look for in a corner, his attention to detail and technique are
flawless, I was really impressed by him. Andrew Booth is a little up and
down, but is a good athlete who finds the ball very easily as a zone
corner. Kaiir Elam is a bigger corner and plays well in press coverage, his
athleticism doesn’t always translate to playmaking and he doesn’t play the
run well at all, but he has good intangibles. Kyler Gordon saw a lot of
action playing opposite McDuffie, but he’s tough and physical and is a
further starter. Roger McCreary can play the nickel or outside and has good
ball skills and Cam Taylor-Britt is more of an athlete this point but has
the tools to work with. Marcus Jones is the best pure slot corner in this
group.
Sleeper:- Tariq Woolen, UTSA - very, very raw, but I’ve never seen a 6-4,
205 pound corner run 4.26 before.
Safety - My vote for best player in this draft goes to Kyle Hamilton, he
is a game changing player you have to account for on every play, his range,
his physical nature, his tackling and ball skills are tremendous. Someone
is going to build a defense around his unique skill set like the Steelers
built their defense around Troy’s skill set and be very, very happy.
Another one of my favourite players in this draft is Daxton Hill, he plays
in the slot, deep or box safety and has the mental capacity to handle all
three at the next level. Size is average, but he is tough and can do it
all. I like the next two guys, too, Lewis Cine lacks the great ball skills,
but he is an absolute hammer hitter and plays the run so well and is an
improving talent whilst Jalen Pitre lacks speed, but is a great box safety
and blitzer and has enough to get by in coverage for now, he reminds me a
little of Tyrann Mathieu. Jaquan Brisker is a relatively safe option as a
strong safety, nothing special, just solid, needs to get better in tackling
but is alert and rangy in coverage, he’s a little injury prone and is
compared to another ex-PSU’er in Adrian Amos. Nick Cross is a solid run
defender but doesn’t play to his timed speed, Bryan Cook needs to be better
in coverage but is a good box tackler overall.
Sleeper:- JT Woods, Baylor - Gets caught out at times, but he does well
against both the run and the pass.
Specialists - We could actually see 5 specialists drafted, it begins with
the ridiculous Matt Araiza, who has the most powerful leg of any punter
I’ve ever seen and should go in round three. Jordan Stout and Jake Camarda
should also be drafted as punters, whilst Cade York, Gabe Brkic and
Jonathan Garibay are draftable kickers, all three of them have potential to
stick around the league for a while.
All-Dave team
(Players who would feature in an All-Dave team if I would put one together)
Dameon Pierce, RB Florida
David Bell, WR Purdue
Zion Johnson, G/T Boston College
Kenyon Green, G/T Texas A&M
David Ojabo, LB Michigan
Nakobe Dean, ILB Georgia
Dax Hill, S Michigan
Lewis Cine, S Georgia
Matt Araiza, P San Diego State
And this year’s name of the draft is Southern Utah ILB La’akea
Kaho’Ohanohano-Davis and I will buy his jersey in a heartbeat just to see
them squeeze all those letters onto the nameplate. Honourable mention must
go to Auburn, for their safety pairing of Smoke Monday and Bydarrius
Knighten along with their tackle Brodarious Hamm. Good effort by them this
year.
Thoughts on the Steelers to follow…...
