Top shelf stuff as always Dave. I don't follow the draft like I used
to. It used to be a niche thing with a handful of knowledgeable
writers. Buschbaum, Kiper, Ourlads, Bob McGinn. And our own David Reid
of course! These guys actually wrote about what they watched. Most of
what is written today is based off of what writers read about.
Thanks for this.
Marty
-----------------------------------------From: "David Reid" "
To: "Steelers List"
Cc:
Sent: Wednesday April 27 2022 3:35:58AM
Subject: [steelers_pb] 2022 Draft Preview
Taking a deeper look at this than usual this year again, I’ve had a
few conversations with people in the game recently too which has
influenced my thinking on this.
It’s a strange draft with a lack of true superstar quality at the
top, there are some really good players at the top of this group, but
a lot of players in the first round will be good to above average pros
and nothing more than that - there seems to be a lot of players whose
skill sets we seem to see every year. There are very few
“unicorns” with skill sets or workout numbers that you only see
once every few years. As a result, you can throw every mock draft
you’ve read over the last 4 months in the bin because there is no
consensus and 32 teams will have 32 wildly different top tens. Round
one is going to shock people who’s research has been via mock
drafts. Nobody knows anything. The strength of this draft is in the
middle rounds, and there are several positions with good depth into
the 4th round so teams with multiple picks from rounds two through
four (Ravens, Chiefs) have an opportunity to draft well here for depth
with future starting potential. And because of many players being
granted an extra year because of Covid disruption, there are a higher
number of overaged seniors this year and it’s a deeper class as a
result of that, too.
I’ve actually had more time to look at the prospects this year,
here’s some thoughts….
Quarterback — No generational type QB’s this year, but as always,
the success of any rookie QB depends heavily on the scheme and
philosophies of the offense, the coaching and the surrounding cast to
make a good fit and to that end, there are some talented players here
and you can bet that all 32 teams will have a different order on their
board for these guys, opinions are differing wildly on some of these
players. Kenny Pickett is fundamentally sound and intelligent, nothing
flashy but has the instincts you need. I think he’ll be a solid,
above average NFL starter in the Matt Hasselback / Derek Carr mould.
Malik Willis is raw and developmental, he has incredible athleticism
and is a natural thrower with a rocket launcher for an arm, but he
needs to mature, he struggles with recognition at times and his timing
and accuracy are inconsistent, he needs a lot of work in throwing from
the pocket and stares down receivers too often. 80% of his problems
are with the mental processing with what he sees and I think you need
to cut the field in half with his reads initially. He’ll make plays
for you but people need to be patient with him. I like the Jalen Hurts
comparisons here as a starting point for his career. Desmond Ridder is
similar, the biggest knock on Ridder is accuracy, which is also one of
the toughest things to fix in the pros, he needs to work on his timing
and be more consistent with his pocket setup, but he’s a calm
presence, a good, mature student of the game and is more advanced than
Willis in his poise and command of the offense he ran. Matt Corral is
intriguing, he was hampered in my opinion by a short range screens and
slants offense, he ran a rigid RPO system and he ran it well, but he
needs to be more exposed in an offense that isn’t so pre-determined
in it’s philosophy. He has a live arm and reads the field well, but
there are several fundamental things about pro offenses he needs to
master before he can start, some scouts say there are Johnny Manziel
similarities with Corral when you talk about his off the field
demeanour. Sam Howell’s issues are more technical, he needs to
develop more as a pocket passer and learn to read the field more, but
is a high character, tough kid with a good arm, I like the Baker
Mayfield comparisons here and someone also likened him to Joe Flacco
or a more talented Gardner Minshew. Carson Strong is a natural passer
with medical question marks around his knee injury and mechanical
issues, his ceiling is lower than the others, but he should have a
good career as a backup and be picked in the second half of the draft.
Sleeper:- Not really a sleeper as he is well known, but Bailey Zappe
of Western Kentucky is a solid, unathletic, unflashy player with a
good feel for playing the position and good intangibles. He should be
a decade long career backup.
Running Back — There doesn’t appear to be an all around back in
this year’s class, there are a few backs who do certain things very
well, but not enough to be picked in round one. The best three are
Kenneth Walker who is a powerful runner who is a poor blocker and
receiver, Breece Hall who has room for improvement as a receiver and
blocker but is a really strong zone runner and Isaiah Spiller, who has
good patience and vision, but like the others isn’t much of a
breakaway threat. All three should become solid, capable starters, but
doubts exist whether they are pure three down backs and they strike me
as the kind of backs you can find in rounds 2-3 of the draft every
year. There are other toolsy backs as well, James Cook is a threat as
a slot receiver and his versatility is his best trait, I like Dameon
Pierce, a power back with attitude who runs with violence and Brian
Robinson and Kyren Williams are more like third down or complimentary
backs. Rachaad White is a terrific receiver, Pierre Strong has great
speed and is one of those guys that if you can block for him, he knows
where to go and Hassan Haskins is a solid workhorse. Like I said, this
group is just a bunch of guys with no one really standing out.
Sleeper:- Tyler Badie of Missouri is undersized, but has great assets
with balance and vision and catches the ball well, he could become a
very productive contributor in the right scheme.
Wide Receiver — This is another solid receiver class without having
a top ten overall talent, there’s an abundance of number two
receivers or slot guys here. Collectively, this group has a lot of
slim, light, small receivers and the bigger receivers in the class
aren’t as fast. Garrett Wilson is an excellent player in need of
some technical improvements in his route running, but I think he’s
the most sure-fire top end receiver in this group. Jameson Williams
would have been the top receiver had he not torn his ACL in the
national championship game, I think he’s worth the risk though,
Drake London is a bigger, stronger receiver who dominates in contested
situations, and Chris Olave is dependable. Treylon Burks is
outstanding after the catch and can line up anywhere and Jahan Dotson
is the best route runner in this class and reminds me a little of
Tyler Lockett, but needs to get stronger. Skyy Moore is a good slot
prospect and Christian Watson has unicorn triangle numbers but needs
to add polish, if he can get more consistency, he could be very
interesting to watch, he’s very raw, but could become very
productive in the right setup. I like John Metchie’s reliability,
not a deep threat and he too is coming off an ACL injury, but he’s
solid. Keep an eye on George Pickens who missed most of last season
with an ACL injury, but could be special - he is also one of the
nastiest blocking receivers I’ve ever seen and one who plays to the
echo of the whistle. There are many others, but expect to see these
guys in the top two rounds, other names I like are David Bell, Khalil
Shakir, Bo Melton and Tyquan Thornton, each can do their own thing
well.
Sleeper:-Justyn Ross, Clemson - major medical question marks as he
works his way back from a severe neck injury and surgery, but
pre-injury he was looking like a generational talent.
Tight End — A down year, with the best ones to be found in the
round 2/3 range. Trey McBride should be a decent pro, he does
everything effectively at a pro level without being an outstanding
athlete and he’s a good blocker too, he reminds me a little of Jason
Witten. Greg Dulcich needs work as a blocker, but he’s an excellent
receiver and does well with the ball in his hands. Jeremy Ruckert has
upside and needs to continue to work on blocking, Jelani Woods is a
big, athletic target who can get deep and Charlie Kolar is a red zone
weapon without being particularly athletic. Keep an eye on Jalen
Wydermyer too, he came into the season as a possible first round pick
but his stock has plummeted after testing poorly and running a 5.02.
Hard to believe he won’t get a chance somewhere based on his on
field play, but he might not be drafted.
Sleeper:- Isaiah Likely, Coastal Carolina - very athletic receiver
and a great route runner.
Tackle — Great year for tackles with starting depth well into day
three of the draft, especially on the right side. The top three have
separated themselves from the others for me Ikem Ekwonu needs some
refinement but has elite potential at the next level thanks to his run
blocking, Evan Neal needs to work on his balance and sustaining his
blocks, but his size and athleticism mean he should be a long time pro
starter at right tackle if nothing else, and Charles Cross needs to
get stronger, but he’s already the best pure pass protector in this
group and is generally mean, nasty and physical. I have concerns about
Trevor Penning, in the tape I watched I saw him miss too many times,
but the size and athleticism are very attractive and he should in time
do well - he’s mean and nasty too, but he has to control that.
Bernhard Raimann is still developing but is a good pass protector,
Tyler Smith is raw and talented and is more of a down the line
starter, but he’s an athletic pull and trap tackle and Daniel
Faalele might be too big to be anything more than a pure right tackle.
Sleeper:- Max Mitchell, Louisiana - Plays better than he tested,
should be a decent backup in the pros.
Guard — I love the top two here, Kenyon Green needs to cut down on
his penalties, but he’s an absolute destroyer who will take out
anything in his way in the running game and Zion Johnson is one of my
favourite players in this draft, he’s versatile and can play either
guard or tackle and has reps at center too, intelligent, strong and
powerful in both the run and pass games, he should have a nice 15 year
career in the NFL. Other names to watch include Darian Kinnard, who is
already a dominant run blocker in need of refinement in the passing
game, and Luke Goedeke, who is inexperienced but should start as a
pure guard.
Sleeper:- Ed Ingram, LSU - some off the field questions and needs to
clean up some of his technique, but he’s very strong and powerful.
Center - Tyler Linderbaum is the latest first round pick out of Iowa
to be staring at a long NFL career, if anything he is slightly
undersized, and he may have issues at times in pass protection as a
result, but as a technician who gets out of his stance quickly and a
powerful run blocker, he’s one of the best center prospects in a
while. Cam Jurgens might be more of a zone scheme center, lacks power,
but he has mobility and is tough. Dylan Parham is technically sound
and should start in time.
Sleeper:- Cole Strange, Chattanooga - Quick and technically solid.
Edge rushers - Aiden Hutchinson reminds me of TJ Watt did out of
Wisconsin, a high motor player who has average NFL measurables but
needs a bit of refinement. Of course, TJ was picked 30th overall and
the light went on in a major way and he became the best pass rusher in
the league, Hutchinson has to hope that with pro coaching he can make
a similar impact, which is why many have him going number one overall.
Travon Walker is still a work in progress as a pass rusher, but as a
wrecking ball athlete and run defender he is already an elite
prospect, he has a great motor and is the kind of player who you just
turn loose and watch them go. Kayvon Thibodeaux is splitting opinion,
his attitude, inflated ego and questions about his motor are red flags
to some, but he plays most of the the time in the opponents backfield,
so there are rewards to this risk. Having studied him myself, I see
nothing in his on field play to suggest that he takes plays off, but I
can’t speak of his attitude or demeanour, one thing I noticed was
that when he gets stonewalled, he needs to dig deeper and fight
through it, he disappeared for stretches. Jermaine Johnson isn’t an
elite athlete, but he is technically excellent, maybe his best spot is
as a 3-4 OLB, George Karlaftis is a solid 4-3 end in the Ryan Kerrigan
mould, more of a strength over speed guy, Arnold Ebiketie is a very
interesting prospect, a little raw, undersized and inconsistent, but
he has great numbers and a great motor too. Logan Hall might project
inside at times, but he’s powerful and aggressive. Boye Mafe
hasn’t put it all together yet especially in the run game, but when
he does, watch out. Cam Thomas is the second coming of Maxx Crosby.
Finally, David Ojabo has had his draft prospects wrecked by his pro
day achilles injury, but I would have absolutely no hesitation
drafting him in round two, he dominated at times last year at
Michigan, has a big upside and is well worth stashing for a year as he
rehabs, he reminds me of Leonard Little.
Sleeper:- Josh Paschal, Kentucky - Might have the best motor in the
draft, is certainly one of the best character guys in this draft who
was admired greatly by everyone I spoke to, not particularly athletic,
but he’s just polished and versatile and always seems to make plays.
Defensive Linemen — Georgia dominates this group too, Devonte Wyatt
is just an aggressive, versatile, strong, quick and powerful interior
lineman, needs to work on his play diagnosis a little bit, but he can
play anywhere and will do well, his first step and penetration are
rare but overall he is just solid all around with very few holes.
Jordan Davis is one of the freakiest athletes in NFL combine history,
there are real limitations to his game, he is at the moment a two down
player and is not a pass rusher, but he is incredible at clogging the
middle of the line taking out a double team and swimming down the line
to make a tackle. He is a dominant run defender and will be drafted
with that role in mind. Travis Jones is a similar player to Davis,
needs some technique refinement in terms of how he uses his hands, but
he’s another run stuffer who should do well. Perrion Winfrey and
Demarvin Leal lack consistency, but they flash real star potential at
times, they are both good at playing the gaps to get into the
backfield, there are also minor character concerns around both and
Phidarian Mathis is a big unit with some range about him too, not
athletic, but powerful. Matthew Butler is another guy who can play the
double team well too and Zach Carter and Eyioma Uwazurike are classic
3-4, 5 technique ends in the Tuitt mould.
Sleeper: Otto Ogbonnia, UCLA - raw developmental type who plays with
power.
Linebackers — I love Nakobe Dean, he’s undersized, but is whip
smart and plays like a heat seeking missile, I think he’s stronger
and more powerful than he looks, too. I’d have him on my defense in
a heartbeat. Devin Lloyd plays fast and needs to get stronger, but
he’s a three down linebacker who can line up anywhere and make an
impact. Quay Walker is another Georgia product, who is still
developing and needs work in pass coverage, but he’s just a
destroyer against the run. Chad Muma is big and rangy, he’s not as
athletic as those already mentioned, but he diagnoses well and should
become a 4-3 MLB starter in time. Christian Harris flatters to deceive
at times, he looks the part but gets caught out of position too often.
He’s versatile though and should be fine in time. Leo Chanel is a
thumper against the run who struggles in coverage. Keep an eye on
Damone Clark, who slotted in towards the middle of the draft before it
was discovered he needed neck surgery at the combine and will be on
the shelf in 2022, he is worth a late gamble or free agency signing.
Troy Andersen is a good guy in space.
Sleeper:- Darrian Beavers, Cincinnati - Big, solid tackling 3-4 ILB
Cornerbacks - Ahmad Gardner is from the school of sticky man to man
corners who can take one half of the field away. He’s really good,
but I think he’s being overhyped a little here, I’d like to have
seen him go up against the best receivers in the country before I
would have been more comfortable in anointing him as the best corner
here. Derek Stingley has been banged up for two years now, but his
freshman campaign was spectacular. If healthy, he’s a perennial Pro
Bowler and I think he’ll be better than Gardner, too. Trent McDuffie
is one of the safest picks in this draft, he doesn’t have
prototypical size, but he’s got everything else the pros look for in
a corner, his attention to detail and technique are flawless, I was
really impressed by him. Andrew Booth is a little up and down, but is
a good athlete who finds the ball very easily as a zone corner. Kaiir
Elam is a bigger corner and plays well in press coverage, his
athleticism doesn’t always translate to playmaking and he doesn’t
play the run well at all, but he has good intangibles. Kyler Gordon
saw a lot of action playing opposite McDuffie, but he’s tough and
physical and is a further starter. Roger McCreary can play the nickel
or outside and has good ball skills and Cam Taylor-Britt is more of an
athlete this point but has the tools to work with. Marcus Jones is the
best pure slot corner in this group.
Sleeper:- Tariq Woolen, UTSA - very, very raw, but I’ve never seen
a 6-4, 205 pound corner run 4.26 before.
Safety - My vote for best player in this draft goes to Kyle Hamilton,
he is a game changing player you have to account for on every play,
his range, his physical nature, his tackling and ball skills are
tremendous. Someone is going to build a defense around his unique
skill set like the Steelers built their defense around Troy’s skill
set and be very, very happy. Another one of my favourite players in
this draft is Daxton Hill, he plays in the slot, deep or box safety
and has the mental capacity to handle all three at the next level.
Size is average, but he is tough and can do it all. I like the next
two guys, too, Lewis Cine lacks the great ball skills, but he is an
absolute hammer hitter and plays the run so well and is an improving
talent whilst Jalen Pitre lacks speed, but is a great box safety and
blitzer and has enough to get by in coverage for now, he reminds me a
little of Tyrann Mathieu. Jaquan Brisker is a relatively safe option
as a strong safety, nothing special, just solid, needs to get better
in tackling but is alert and rangy in coverage, he’s a little injury
prone and is compared to another ex-PSU’er in Adrian Amos. Nick
Cross is a solid run defender but doesn’t play to his timed speed,
Bryan Cook needs to be better in coverage but is a good box tackler
overall.
Sleeper:- JT Woods, Baylor - Gets caught out at times, but he does
well against both the run and the pass.
Specialists - We could actually see 5 specialists drafted, it begins
with the ridiculous Matt Araiza, who has the most powerful leg of any
punter I’ve ever seen and should go in round three. Jordan Stout and
Jake Camarda should also be drafted as punters, whilst Cade York, Gabe
Brkic and Jonathan Garibay are draftable kickers, all three of them
have potential to stick around the league for a while.
All-Dave team
(Players who would feature in an All-Dave team if I would put one
together)
Dameon Pierce, RB Florida David Bell, WR Purdue Zion Johnson, G/T
Boston College Kenyon Green, G/T Texas A&M David Ojabo, LB Michigan
Nakobe Dean, ILB Georgia Dax Hill, S Michigan Lewis Cine, S Georgia
Matt Araiza, P San Diego State
And this year’s name of the draft is Southern Utah ILB La’akea
Kaho’Ohanohano-Davis and I will buy his jersey in a heartbeat just
to see them squeeze all those letters onto the nameplate. Honourable
mention must go to Auburn, for their safety pairing of Smoke Monday
and Bydarrius Knighten along with their tackle Brodarious Hamm. Good
effort by them this year.
Thoughts on the Steelers to follow…...
