For a draft with very few sure fire superstars, there is a lot of intrigue
around it and as I already said, there will be a number of surprises ahead in
the coming days. Again, the strength of this draft is in rounds two to four
where positions of depth can be filled abundantly. I think that more teams will
look to trade down for extra picks in the middle of the draft or let the draft
come to them instead of being aggressive and moving up in round one.
The Steelers, picking 20th thanks to that late season playoff surge, are in a
position to take the best player available at a position of need in that spot
and should have plenty of options to choose from. Let’s talk trades, thanks to
previous trades and to the fact that they won’t get any compensatory picks next
season thanks to their free agency spree this year, picks are at a premium for
them and unless they seriously wanted to mortgage their future, they should not
trade up. Besides, unless something unforeseen happens, I don’t think there is
a player that is worth trading up for, again, value and ratings are such that
you can get a similar player at pick 20 that you can get at pick 10. The
intrigue comes from the possibility of trading down again, for the same reason
- you will get similar players at pick 30 than you would at pick 20 and
possibly you can get extra picks in the round two to four sweet spot of the
draft. When looking at the draft order, one team I would explore trading back
with is Detroit. The Lions pick at 32 and 34 and pick 20 for Detroit should
assure them of a QB, should they want to pick one. If you can slide down 12
picks, send pick 20 in round one and the second round pick at 52 for 32 and 34,
then that’s a trade I would make (and the Steelers may have to throw in some
loose change, such as a late pick next year to balance it out, but I’m
spitballing here). 32 and 34 still keep you in prime real estate for DB’s, OL’s
DL’s and WR’s if you have a similar grade on bunches of players at those spots.
So let’s look at positions and players. In every draft, I look at certain
players who have no right to be on the board when the Steelers pick at 20 who
the Steelers would jump at and bypass more critical needs to get them. There is
no way that these players should be there at 20, but if they do then Kyle
Hamilton, Jameson Williams or Derek Stingley will be a Steeler, they are just
too good to pass up. It won’t happen, but players sometimes fall for no reason.
Then there are players who, reading between the lines, I think the Steelers
love, again not necessarily at a position of need, that I think would make
great Steelers and could / should be around at pick 20. Nakobe Dean, Tyler
Linderbaum, Jermaine Johnson come to mind here. These are players like Ryan
Shazier of DeCastro were when they picked him, exceptional football players in
their own right who you suspect Tomlin and Colbert are salivating over, but not
necessarily at a position of critical need. These are more pie in the sky type
selections than anything else, but if they love them as I suspect they might,
they might be a part of the conversation at pick 20 if they are there.
(Seriously, Nakobe Dean a Steeler… I would sign up for that in a heartbeat)
Then we get real. Every mock draft in America has linked them in round one to
the position that maybe isn’t even a top three need for them at this moment,
and that is QB. I think they will pick one up, but whether that is in round one
or elsewhere is the question. Of the players that might be there, I’m most
comfortable with Pickett being that high floor / moderate ceiling prospect that
many people have labelled him as. I have doubts about Willis in terms of his
accuracy, his play from the pocket and his ability to develop in an NFL system,
he has an incredible arm, good mobility and I think that he’s going to be a
very exciting player, but can you really say that he is that guy who can put a
team on his back and take them all the way to a Super Bowl? More importantly,
can Matt Canada and Mike Sullivan be trusted to turn this incredibly raw talent
into a superstar? I think, if the Steelers pass on both of these guys in round
one, I won’t be disappointed, but if they pick one, they have to commit to them
100% and their development, play to their strengths, surround them with talent,
protect them and nurture them. Willis will not succeed if he is thrown into the
pros early in his career. Also, imagine this scenario, following the disaster
that was last season under Ben, say Canada fails to spark this offense with a
newer, more mobile QB and gets fired. Then what do you do? You could have a QB
in Willis or Pickett or Trubisky who once again will be facing a new
co-ordinator and a new scheme to work in which might not suit their abilities.
I think they will pick a QB at some point, but again, there are bigger, more
pressing needs here. And, I say this with one eye on next year, which should be
a better, deeper QB crop than this year.
Defensive depth is poor on this team and the age along the DL has been another
one of those ticking time bombs. Heyward is magnificent, but like Alualu he’s
getting up in years and can’t do it all by himself, Montravious Adams was solid
though. Then there’s the whole Tuitt question as well as to what his future is
and, if he does come back, how committed he will be. You only have to remember
what Dalvin Cook did to that front seven in the first half of that game in
Minnesota to see this as a major need - they were the worst team in the league
last year at yards allowed per rushing attempt. And as poor as the Steelers
were at ILB last year, I think that so much of those problems stem from what
was going on up front. If you want to salvage Devin Bush, give him an
opportunity to flow to the ball and make plays again. The two names out there
are Jordan Davis and Devonte Wyatt from Georgia. Davis is very interesting to
me, everyone is blown away by the workout numbers, but he is a very limited
player at this point, all he can do is stuff the run and destroy a double team.
Useful traits to have and he is brilliant at it, but is that worthy of a top 15
pick? Are there enough teams out there who see the limitations and will pass on
him, or will someone fall in love with the athleticism and potential and pick
him? I think it could genuinely go either way and I think if he falls to 20, he
should be the pick because he is that perfect fit that the Steelers crave, he
can play in the rotation behind Alualu initially and maintain that two down
profile he’s got at the moment, but they can also work on some other things and
make him a three down player if need be. Wyatt is similar, but I wonder if off
the field concerns make him fall? The third name to watch is Travis Jones, who
could sneak into round one and who could make sense if they trade back a few
spots as well, I like Jones at the end of round one. Later names to watch in
rounds two to four are Phidarian Mathis, Perrion Winfrey and Matthew Butler,
all of whom they can work with. Again, they need help here, they can’t go into
the season one play away from Mondeaux and Loudermilk being starters on this
team, because they are not NFL calibre starters.
You can never have enough DB’s, with all the different packages the team has
now there are so many roles to fill, if not as starters but also for depth. At
safety, the recent signing of Terrell Edmunds does not and should not preclude
them from looking at a safety in round one, safety seems to be another one of
those positions where the traditional strong safety / free safety model is
becoming even more blurred, with players regularly playing both, along with
slot corner and in some cases box safeties who double as inside linebackers.
Whichever way you cut it, the Steelers can pick a player who can help them out
in multiple ways at the position. As I’ve already said, I love this group of
safeties, I’m really high on Lewis Cine and Dax Hill and they would be perfect
for this team, their versatility is such a great asset and Jalen Pitre and
Jaquan Brisker in round two would be excellent pickups too - these are all
really disruptive, versatile players and playmakers. Bryan Cook, Nick Cross and
JT Woods would also be solid pickups too later on in day two or early on day
three when they would represent great value. Corner is a lower priority, but
there are players who measure up to what they look for at pick 20 and they
would be solid value, too. Trent McDuffie would be very hard to pass up if he
gets that far, Andrew Booth or Kaiir Elam if they trade back in round one
should get consideration too. I think we are more likely to see one from round
three onwards Coby Bryant, Zyon McCollum (a really intriguing player from Sam
Houston State) would be on their radar.
Then we come to receiver, another position that will be addressed early. I
expect a run on receivers before the Steelers pick in round one, to a degree it
depends on what they are looking for in terms of size, speed and role as to who
and when they choose to pick, but anyone from those top 6 names (Wilson,
Williams, London, Olave, Burks, Dotson) would fit and do well with Burks and
Dotson being the most likely to be there at pick 20. The Steelers have had
success in the early to middle rounds, but don’t forget, they also pulled the
trigger on Claypool with their first pick and you can go back to Santonio
Holmes as well for a first round pick, so it’s not out of the question,
especially if they are enamoured with one. Dotson especially fits their mould
of a great, precise route runner with good hands. The fun begins if they slide
back and pick earlier in round two as that’s when you get into George Pickens
territory, a roll of the dice, but a player who really could wind up being the
best receiver in this draft, Skyy Moore, Christian Watson also come into play.
The smart money says they will look towards round 2/3 at a receiver, putting
them in range for Alec Pierce, Wan’Dale Robinson, Khalil Shakir, Bo Melton and
Justyn Ross (assuming the medicals on Ross are clear) again, depending on the
size / speed and position they are looking to fill.
It’s hard to see them straying from these three areas early - offensive line
will be addressed, even though Zion Johnson would be a terrific pickup in round
one for them I think the need for that is lessened before round 3/4, guys like
Daniel Faalele, Abraham Lucas, Nicholas Petit-Frere, Rasheed Walker at tackle,
Ed Ingram at guard would be names to watch in that range.
Other positions that I would look at towards the end of the draft include more
depth at TE and RB. The only thing they don’t need is help for special teams,
but depth across the board continues to be a concern.
So, here’s my board for the Steelers at 20 based on my own scouting, how I
value these players based on need for the Steelers, how they fit what the
Steelers do, value and realistically who might be there.
If a player isn’t listed here, it’s because I believe that either a) there is
zero chance they will be around at pick 20 and of the top 3 names on my board I
would put the chances of them lasting to pick 20 at no more 10% and that’s
assuming lots of wild things go down and they just somehow slip through the net
or b) they would be a reach of varying degrees at pick 20 and although they
might be a good fit, they should be more suited to a selection after a trade
down.
As usual, to play along, cross the names off as they are drafted and the
highest remaining player would be my first round pick.
Kyle Hamilton
Derek Stingley Jr
Jameson Williams
Jordan Davis
Chris Olave
Dax Hill
Trent McDuffie
Lewis Cine
Devonte Wyatt
Jahan Dotson
Drake London
Kenny Pickett
Treylon Burks
Zion Johnson
Nakobe Dean
Malik Willis
Travis Jones
Andrew Booth
Devin Lloyd
Tyler Linderbaum
Like I said, buckle up, because this will be a wild, wild ride. If it is QB in
round one, I’ll reserve judgement to see just what they do in the rest of the
draft to fill the more pressing needs, but to have this draft class and not
come out of it by filling these critical needs along the DL, WR and DB corps
with quality players would be very questionable and lead itself to more issues
when the paper thin depth in those areas is pressed into action. They enter a
new era, the post-Ben era and they need to put together a team on both sides of
the ball which encourages competition for playing time, players that fit a
scheme, a system and a culture, where players are pushing each other instead of
being handed roles due to lack of alternatives. That, to me, would make for a
successful draft for the Steelers.
I’ll be here all weekend and will update things if I hear anything, let’s go!
