Still not sure how I missed this, but finally had a chance to read
and....again, spot-on.
Thanks again, I dig the draft with you guys, it's really great fun.
Streetr
On Thu, Apr 28, 2022 at 6:13 PM David Kownacki <dkownacki@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
As it is in every year, thank you
David Kownacki
Sent from my iPad
On Apr 27, 2022, at 6:44 AM, David Reid <dmarc-noreply@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
For a draft with very few sure fire superstars, there is a lot of intrigue
around it and as I already said, there will be a number of surprises ahead
in the coming days. Again, the strength of this draft is in rounds two to
four where positions of depth can be filled abundantly. I think that more
teams will look to trade down for extra picks in the middle of the draft or
let the draft come to them instead of being aggressive and moving up in
round one.
The Steelers, picking 20th thanks to that late season playoff surge, are
in a position to take the best player available at a position of need in
that spot and should have plenty of options to choose from. Let’s talk
trades, thanks to previous trades and to the fact that they won’t get any
compensatory picks next season thanks to their free agency spree this year,
picks are at a premium for them and unless they seriously wanted to
mortgage their future, they should not trade up. Besides, unless something
unforeseen happens, I don’t think there is a player that is worth trading
up for, again, value and ratings are such that you can get a similar player
at pick 20 that you can get at pick 10. The intrigue comes from the
possibility of trading down again, for the same reason - you will get
similar players at pick 30 than you would at pick 20 and possibly you can
get extra picks in the round two to four sweet spot of the draft. When
looking at the draft order, one team I would explore trading back with is
Detroit. The Lions pick at 32 and 34 and pick 20 for Detroit should assure
them of a QB, should they want to pick one. If you can slide down 12 picks,
send pick 20 in round one and the second round pick at 52 for 32 and 34,
then that’s a trade I would make (and the Steelers may have to throw in
some loose change, such as a late pick next year to balance it out, but I’m
spitballing here). 32 and 34 still keep you in prime real estate for DB’s,
OL’s DL’s and WR’s if you have a similar grade on bunches of players at
those spots.
So let’s look at positions and players. In every draft, I look at certain
players who have no right to be on the board when the Steelers pick at 20
who the Steelers would jump at and bypass more critical needs to get them.
There is no way that these players should be there at 20, but if they do
then Kyle Hamilton, Jameson Williams or Derek Stingley will be a Steeler,
they are just too good to pass up. It won’t happen, but players sometimes
fall for no reason.
Then there are players who, reading between the lines, I think the
Steelers love, again not necessarily at a position of need, that I think
would make great Steelers and could / should be around at pick 20. Nakobe
Dean, Tyler Linderbaum, Jermaine Johnson come to mind here. These are
players like Ryan Shazier of DeCastro were when they picked him,
exceptional football players in their own right who you suspect Tomlin and
Colbert are salivating over, but not necessarily at a position of critical
need. These are more pie in the sky type selections than anything else, but
if they love them as I suspect they might, they might be a part of the
conversation at pick 20 if they are there. (Seriously, Nakobe Dean a
Steeler… I would sign up for that in a heartbeat)
Then we get real. Every mock draft in America has linked them in round one
to the position that maybe isn’t even a top three need for them at this
moment, and that is QB. I think they will pick one up, but whether that is
in round one or elsewhere is the question. Of the players that might be
there, I’m most comfortable with Pickett being that high floor / moderate
ceiling prospect that many people have labelled him as. I have doubts about
Willis in terms of his accuracy, his play from the pocket and his ability
to develop in an NFL system, he has an incredible arm, good mobility and I
think that he’s going to be a very exciting player, but can you really say
that he is that guy who can put a team on his back and take them all the
way to a Super Bowl? More importantly, can Matt Canada and Mike Sullivan be
trusted to turn this incredibly raw talent into a superstar? I think, if
the Steelers pass on both of these guys in round one, I won’t be
disappointed, but if they pick one, they have to commit to them 100% and
their development, play to their strengths, surround them with talent,
protect them and nurture them. Willis will not succeed if he is thrown into
the pros early in his career. Also, imagine this scenario, following the
disaster that was last season under Ben, say Canada fails to spark this
offense with a newer, more mobile QB and gets fired. Then what do you do?
You could have a QB in Willis or Pickett or Trubisky who once again will be
facing a new co-ordinator and a new scheme to work in which might not suit
their abilities. I think they will pick a QB at some point, but again,
there are bigger, more pressing needs here. And, I say this with one eye on
next year, which should be a better, deeper QB crop than this year.
Defensive depth is poor on this team and the age along the DL has been
another one of those ticking time bombs. Heyward is magnificent, but like
Alualu he’s getting up in years and can’t do it all by himself, Montravious
Adams was solid though. Then there’s the whole Tuitt question as well as to
what his future is and, if he does come back, how committed he will be. You
only have to remember what Dalvin Cook did to that front seven in the first
half of that game in Minnesota to see this as a major need - they were the
worst team in the league last year at yards allowed per rushing attempt.
And as poor as the Steelers were at ILB last year, I think that so much of
those problems stem from what was going on up front. If you want to salvage
Devin Bush, give him an opportunity to flow to the ball and make plays
again. The two names out there are Jordan Davis and Devonte Wyatt from
Georgia. Davis is very interesting to me, everyone is blown away by the
workout numbers, but he is a very limited player at this point, all he can
do is stuff the run and destroy a double team. Useful traits to have and he
is brilliant at it, but is that worthy of a top 15 pick? Are there enough
teams out there who see the limitations and will pass on him, or will
someone fall in love with the athleticism and potential and pick him? I
think it could genuinely go either way and I think if he falls to 20, he
should be the pick because he is that perfect fit that the Steelers crave,
he can play in the rotation behind Alualu initially and maintain that two
down profile he’s got at the moment, but they can also work on some other
things and make him a three down player if need be. Wyatt is similar, but I
wonder if off the field concerns make him fall? The third name to watch is
Travis Jones, who could sneak into round one and who could make sense if
they trade back a few spots as well, I like Jones at the end of round one.
Later names to watch in rounds two to four are Phidarian Mathis, Perrion
Winfrey and Matthew Butler, all of whom they can work with. Again, they
need help here, they can’t go into the season one play away from Mondeaux
and Loudermilk being starters on this team, because they are not NFL
calibre starters.
You can never have enough DB’s, with all the different packages the team
has now there are so many roles to fill, if not as starters but also for
depth. At safety, the recent signing of Terrell Edmunds does not and should
not preclude them from looking at a safety in round one, safety seems to be
another one of those positions where the traditional strong safety / free
safety model is becoming even more blurred, with players regularly playing
both, along with slot corner and in some cases box safeties who double as
inside linebackers. Whichever way you cut it, the Steelers can pick a
player who can help them out in multiple ways at the position. As I’ve
already said, I love this group of safeties, I’m really high on Lewis Cine
and Dax Hill and they would be perfect for this team, their versatility is
such a great asset and Jalen Pitre and Jaquan Brisker in round two would be
excellent pickups too - these are all really disruptive, versatile players
and playmakers. Bryan Cook, Nick Cross and JT Woods would also be solid
pickups too later on in day two or early on day three when they would
represent great value. Corner is a lower priority, but there are players
who measure up to what they look for at pick 20 and they would be solid
value, too. Trent McDuffie would be very hard to pass up if he gets that
far, Andrew Booth or Kaiir Elam if they trade back in round one should get
consideration too. I think we are more likely to see one from round three
onwards Coby Bryant, Zyon McCollum (a really intriguing player from Sam
Houston State) would be on their radar.
Then we come to receiver, another position that will be addressed early. I
expect a run on receivers before the Steelers pick in round one, to a
degree it depends on what they are looking for in terms of size, speed and
role as to who and when they choose to pick, but anyone from those top 6
names (Wilson, Williams, London, Olave, Burks, Dotson) would fit and do
well with Burks and Dotson being the most likely to be there at pick 20.
The Steelers have had success in the early to middle rounds, but don’t
forget, they also pulled the trigger on Claypool with their first pick and
you can go back to Santonio Holmes as well for a first round pick, so it’s
not out of the question, especially if they are enamoured with one. Dotson
especially fits their mould of a great, precise route runner with good
hands. The fun begins if they slide back and pick earlier in round two as
that’s when you get into George Pickens territory, a roll of the dice, but
a player who really could wind up being the best receiver in this draft,
Skyy Moore, Christian Watson also come into play. The smart money says they
will look towards round 2/3 at a receiver, putting them in range for Alec
Pierce, Wan’Dale Robinson, Khalil Shakir, Bo Melton and Justyn Ross
(assuming the medicals on Ross are clear) again, depending on the size /
speed and position they are looking to fill.
It’s hard to see them straying from these three areas early - offensive
line will be addressed, even though Zion Johnson would be a terrific pickup
in round one for them I think the need for that is lessened before round
3/4, guys like Daniel Faalele, Abraham Lucas, Nicholas Petit-Frere, Rasheed
Walker at tackle, Ed Ingram at guard would be names to watch in that range.
Other positions that I would look at towards the end of the draft include
more depth at TE and RB. The only thing they don’t need is help for special
teams, but depth across the board continues to be a concern.
So, here’s my board for the Steelers at 20 based on my own scouting, how I
value these players based on need for the Steelers, how they fit what the
Steelers do, value and realistically who might be there.
- If a player isn’t listed here, it’s because I believe that either a)
there is zero chance they will be around at pick 20 and of the top 3 names
on my board I would put the chances of them lasting to pick 20 at no more
10% and that’s assuming lots of wild things go down and they just somehow
slip through the net or b) they would be a reach of varying degrees at pick
20 and although they might be a good fit, they should be more suited to a
selection after a trade down.
- As usual, to play along, cross the names off as they are drafted and
the highest remaining player would be my first round pick.
1. Kyle Hamilton
2. Derek Stingley Jr
3. Jameson Williams
4. Jordan Davis
5. Chris Olave
6. Dax Hill
7. Trent McDuffie
8. Lewis Cine
9. Devonte Wyatt
10. Jahan Dotson
11. Drake London
12. Kenny Pickett
13. Treylon Burks
14. Zion Johnson
15. Nakobe Dean
16. Malik Willis
17. Travis Jones
18. Andrew Booth
19. Devin Lloyd
20. Tyler Linderbaum
Like I said, buckle up, because this will be a wild, wild ride. If it is
QB in round one, I’ll reserve judgement to see just what they do in the
rest of the draft to fill the more pressing needs, but to have this draft
class and not come out of it by filling these critical needs along the DL,
WR and DB corps with quality players would be very questionable and lead
itself to more issues when the paper thin depth in those areas is pressed
into action. They enter a new era, the post-Ben era and they need to put
together a team on both sides of the ball which encourages competition for
playing time, players that fit a scheme, a system and a culture, where
players are pushing each other instead of being handed roles due to lack of
alternatives. That, to me, would make for a successful draft for the
Steelers.
I’ll be here all weekend and will update things if I hear anything, let’s
go!
