Keith Reedy keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx Begin forwarded message: > From: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> > Subject: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update > Date: May 4, 2012 9:06:32 PM EDT > To: keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx > Reply-To: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> > > You are subscribed to SPC Mesoscale Discussion for NOAA's National Weather > Service. > > > SPC MD 703 > 05/04/2012 08:58 PM EDT > > MD 0703 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SRN IL...SWRN > IND...NWRN KY AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL MO > > > MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0703 > NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK > 0757 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2012 > > AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...SWRN IND...NWRN KY AND PARTS OF EAST > CENTRAL MO > > CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE > > VALID 050057Z - 050200Z > > PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT > > SUMMARY...PARTS OF SRN IL...INTO SWRN IND...NWRN KY AND POSSIBLY > EAST CENTRAL MO MAY NEED A WW ISSUANCE THIS EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST > NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR OVER SRN IL INTO SWRN IND/NWRN KY > AND NWWD TO POTENTIALLY EAST CENTRAL MO. IF THESE TRENDS ARE > CONFIRMED BY RADAR TRENDS...THEN A WW WOULD LIKELY BE NEEDED. > > DISCUSSION...A STORM WITH A ROBUST UPDRAFT FORMED OVER WAYNE COUNTY > IL WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL STORMS NWD TO EFFINGHAM COUNTY IL. > THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPED WITHIN AN INCREASING WAA REGIME IN THE NOSE > OF A STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH > VALLEY...AND INVOF A SE-NW ORIENTED BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM FAR > SWRN IND THROUGH WAYNE COUNTY IL TO WEST CENTRAL IL. A RESIDUAL > MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7.5-8 C > PER KM/ COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KT PER A 40-50 > KT NWLY MIDLEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM SRN IL TO WRN/SRN KY IS > SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND > GUSTS. ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE WAA AND WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION > OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLEVEL JET SUGGEST NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL > BE POSSIBLE AS THE LLJ IS MAINTAINED INTO THE SRN IL REGION THROUGH > THE EVENING. > > MOST OF THE 15Z SREF MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC > MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY INVOF THE CURRENT STORMS > AND BOTH SEWD AND NWWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING > INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO TRACK > SEWD. > > ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 05/05/2012 > > ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... > > ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... > > LAT...LON 39048760 38518653 37658698 37498789 38479030 39339079 > 39938992 39048760 > > Read more > > > > > To change your subscriptions or preferences log in to your Subscriber > Preferences Page with your e-mail address. > > Delete profile > > For questions or problems with the subscription service, please contact > support@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx > > This service is provided by NOAA's National Weather Service. > > > > GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending to keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx on behalf > of the National Weather Service · 1325 East West Highway · Silver Spring, MD > 20910