[spotters-illianaskywarn] Fwd: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
- From: Keith Reedy <wa9dro@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2010 12:53:13 -0400
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Begin forwarded message:
> From: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: June 27, 2010 11:12:09 AM EDT
> To: keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
>
> SPC MD 1144
> Sun, 27 Jun 2010 10:04:07 -0500
>
>
>
>
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1144
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 1002 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010
>
> AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN IL...WRN OH...CENTRAL/NRN
> INDIANA...SRN LOWER MI...SRN LM.
>
> CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
>
> VALID 271502Z - 271700Z
>
> POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR STG/DAMAGING GUSTS OVER DISCUSSION AREA
> AS PRE-STORM AIR MASS DESTABILIZES AND WINDS ALOFT INCREASE
> SOMEWHAT.
>
> SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT FROM SRN LM ESEWD ACROSS EXTREME
> SWRN LOWER MI ESEWD TO NEAR TOL...CLE...TO W-CENTRAL PA.
> BAROCLINICITY HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
> OVER LOWER MI. EXPECT FRONT TO DRIFT NWD...WHILE LOOSELY ORGANIZED
> AREAS OF TSTMS NOW OVER NRN IL MOVE EWD INTO INCREASINGLY BUOYANT
> AIR MASS WITH SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY 70S F. DIABATIC HEATING
> ALREADY HAS RENDERED NEARLY ZERO MLCINH ACROSS MUCH OF NERN IL AND
> NRN INDIANA...BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...AND CINH
> OVER NERN OH LIKEWISE SHOULD ERODE THROUGH MIDDAY. MLCAPE 2000-3000
> J/KG SHOULD BECOME COMMON AHEAD OF CONVECTION.
>
> AMBIENT FLOW IS NOT ESPECIALLY INTENSE ATTM...WITH WLC PROFILER AND
> IWX VWP SHOWING NO WIND AOA 40 KT BELOW 6 KM AGL.
> HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED GRADUALLY SINCE 8Z.
> TENDENCY SHOULD CONTINUE AS HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT TIGHTENS IN
> ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
> CHANNEL IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES MOVING FROM NERN PLAINS
> TOWARD UPPER MS VALLEY. SPEED SHEAR THEREFORE SHOULD INCREASE WHILE
> DIRECTIONAL SHEAR REMAINS MINIMAL...MEAN WIND CONTAINING SUBSTANTIAL
> EWD COMPONENT ACROSS ANY N-S ALIGNED CONVECTIVE BANDS. DEEP LAYER
> OF MOISTURE EVIDENT IN 12Z ILX RAOB -- WITH 925/850/700 MB MOIST
> AXES ALL ANALYZED ACROSS THIS AREA -- MAY SLOW COLD-POOL
> DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH WIND POTENTIAL LOCALLY WILL BE ENHANCED BY
> SUBCLOUD MIXED LAYER.
>
> ..EDWARDS.. 06/27/2010
>
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
>
> ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...
> LSX...
>
> LAT...LON 39308935 42338680 42178316 39258532 39308935
>
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>
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