[spotters-illianaskywarn] Fwd: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
- From: Keith Reedy <keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Fri, 4 May 2012 20:32:32 -0400
Keith Reedy
keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
Begin forwarded message:
> From: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
> Date: May 4, 2012 8:04:03 PM EDT
> To: keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> Reply-To: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>
> You are subscribed to SPC Mesoscale Discussion for NOAA's National Weather
> Service.
>
>
> SPC MD 701
> 05/04/2012 07:53 PM EDT
>
> MD 0701 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR OH...CENTRAL
> IND...ERN KY AND PARTS OF WRN WV
>
>
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0701
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 0652 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2012
>
> AREAS AFFECTED...OH...CENTRAL IND...ERN KY AND PARTS OF WRN WV
>
> CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
>
> VALID 042352Z - 050045Z
>
> PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
>
> SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SRN
> OH...CENTRAL IND...AND NERN KY...WITH THE OH/KY ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY
> CONSOLIDATING INTO A CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING SWD INTO ERN KY/WV.
> WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THE ONSET OF COOLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
> DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING SUGGESTS THE OVERALL SEVERE
> WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. MEANWHILE... TSTMS OVER
> CENTRAL IND SHOULD ALSO HAVE A SHORT LIFESPAN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
> STABILIZES.
>
> DISCUSSION...EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH REGIONAL
> RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ALONG SEVERAL
> BOUNDARIES. ONE WAS LOCATED GENERALLY E-W ACROSS NRN OH /30 S YNG-20
> S MFD-40 E FWA THEN INTO FAR NERN IND AND FAR SWRN LOWER MI. THE
> SECOND BOUNDARY WAS ORIENTED N-S FROM NWRN OH INTO NERN KY. ALL OF
> THE 15Z SREF MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
> SUGGESTED THE OH/KY ACTIVITY SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A SWD MOVING
> CLUSTER OF STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
> ACROSS MUCH OF OH AND GRADUAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WITH THE
> LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING...THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
> EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND CURRENTLY DOES NOT WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A
> WW.
>
> MEANWHILE ACROSS CENTRAL IND...AN APPARENT MCV PER SATELLITE IMAGERY
> WITH SOME SURFACE REFLECTION WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL IND
> THIS EVENING. ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE MAY AID ADDITIONAL SUSTAINED
> UPDRAFTS...BUT WEAKENING INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
> SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO BE SHORT-LIVED AND LARGELY
> SUB-SEVERE.
>
> ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 05/04/2012
>
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
>
> ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...
>
> LAT...LON 37488459 38298413 38378423 38838459 39268511 39508614
> 39658683 39908685 40218674 40438543 40608453 41228452
> 40628336 40528210 40818102 40118081 39348092 38418116
> 37938182 37678219 37488459
>
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