[ppug] Re: Lay Systems
- From: "RaceStats" <racestats@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: <ppug@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Wed, 25 Aug 2004 21:40:53 +1000
Stebbo,
Perhaps give this a shot, look at IAS fixed odds and then look at Betfair, if
you're happy about the overs you can get then have a go.
The other thing is don't just throw a price out and hope it gets met, unless
you're within a few cents, you'll miss out.
If you find that you can't get good prices on Betfair, watch the market move on
the tab, as soon as it starts firming on the TAB, jump on the price at Betfair,
although you've got to be quick to do it this way.
I don't want to come across as a know it all, because I'm still learning as
well, just trying to help with what works for me.
I've missed very good prices often, but as long as I see where I went wrong, I
can be confident that I can at least raise the strike rate of getting better
prices.
Often I'll split my bets into segments if I'm worried about the fluctuations
going against me.
E.G. $20 @ $3.50 $20 @ $3.60 $20 @ $3.75, if all three get matched, then I
usually am happy at the overlay.
Don't worry at the horse blowing out too far, often these plunges on other
horses go askew rather than actually win.
I have to live with the fact that I'll rarely get the best price, but at least
I can go close.
Regards,
Lindsay.
----- Original Message -----
From: Stebbo
To: ppug@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, August 25, 2004 9:10 PM
Subject: [ppug] Re: Lay Systems
At 07:09 PM 25/08/2004, RaceStats wrote:
Stebbo,
What's the average win dividend or even closing price for losers?
As you say there are some huge overlays on the donkeys which make them a
betting proposition.
The best scenario would be to find a massive losing system on horses under
5/1.
For example today in the first at Victoria Park, Skandia was $1.70 on the
tote, but I got a massive $2.66 & $2.70 on Betfair, that's nearly 60%
improvement and it's really not that uncommon.
This is why I'm into laying favourites only, because the payout on others
is so destroying.
The only time I back them is when I see huge overs like this.
G'Day Lindsay,
it seems that every time I try to get good prices on Betfair I normally
always dip out... Perhaps that might be part of my plan... Offer poor odds and
hope some mug takes them.... I'm going to give it a try for a little while in
the next few weeks to see how it goes.
Cheers,
Chris.
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