[ppug] Re: Lay Systems
- From: "RaceStats" <racestats@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: <ppug@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Wed, 25 Aug 2004 19:09:09 +1000
Stebbo,
What's the average win dividend or even closing price for losers?
As you say there are some huge overlays on the donkeys which make them a
betting proposition.
The best scenario would be to find a massive losing system on horses under 5/1.
For example today in the first at Victoria Park, Skandia was $1.70 on the tote,
but I got a massive $2.66 & $2.70 on Betfair, that's nearly 60% improvement and
it's really not that uncommon.
This is why I'm into laying favourites only, because the payout on others is so
destroying.
The only time I back them is when I see huge overs like this.
Regards,
Lindsay.
----- Original Message -----
From: Stebbo
To: ppug@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, August 25, 2004 6:26 PM
Subject: [ppug] Lay Systems
Hi All,
There seems to be a little bit of interest in this area, and it's something
that I've always been keen on doing... Like most who've tried in this area,
I've been able to develop some very *bad* systems which give quite nice losses,
but when trying to lay them always find that they're donkeys and the backers
want high odds.
I've been playing with this idea for a little while, and have come up with
the following figures over the past two years..
Bets: 3634
Race S/R: 9.9%
POT: -31.6%
LRO: 73
Although the loss isn't all that high, I wouldn't mind getting most of that
on that sort of turnover. The "system" hasn't been "tuned" in the sense of
looking for the areas which find losers, but rather is something that I threw
together out of "intuition"...
Almost half the bets are in the $2 to $11 range, where the S/R is 14% and the
POT is a "healthy" -21%. It's interesting that the POT on races 1 to 4 is
almost 40% on a poor s/r... Could be an interesting idea to just lay the first
few races each day and take any profit that arises.
I'd be interested in people's comments on whether this is layable on Betfair.
Cheers,
Chris.
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