[ppug] Re: Lay Systems
- From: p lake <plaker2003@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: ppug@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Wed, 25 Aug 2004 16:41:05 -0700 (PDT)
System laying is as hard as a place backing system with av div 1.15. Remember
you are usually just backing at 1/5...1/10 which most would not do.
If you want to do it not based on favs and form analysis then try finding a
system based on first four favs max div $10 that has 10% SR over several
hundred instances. So if you can find a 10%SR system max div $10 then shouldn't
get into too much trouble although interesting many find laying more stressful
than backing because you need such a high win(sic) rate and punters aren't
conditioned to high win rates and so don't have the discipline which is
essential for laying.
There are many strategies for working the betfair market that involve backing
and laying but the secret sauce is the market strategy rather than the picks.
p
Laurie McAnulty <mcanulty@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Hi Chris
More info needed here I think.....but on what you've put
You need to split your system into price ranges ( as suggested in emails
replying to you)
I feel anything over 16/1 TAB means you need a big bank behind you as
Betfair overs are so high. I reckon you need on LOT of 70% and the bank
to hold an adverse run. Watch those ones that are close to the TAB price
here, quite a few get up, clever lot these Betfair punters!! Personally
I ignore this price range as I don't want a killer result wiping me out,
small fish for me. Also you need a huge amount in Betfair to lay the
longer odds anyway eg say $10 on 3 50/1 shots means you have to have
$1500 in your account to just do the 3 bets, $20 on 4 20/1 shots is $800
tied up etc etc.
Range 10 to 16 is better but still large overlays to fight against. I go
out to 20/1 on Betfair price, have had some woeful results here with a
system that didn't live up to expectations.....wasn't based on laying
number 1 in a race, number was irrelevant, but this year in the races I
was laying the topweight was annihilating me OUCH
Under 10/1 is where to go BUT I still insist on 50% loss rate, your 21%
seems too skinny to me....without further info the bias to races 1-4
suggests 2 & 3 YO horses may be worth checking, early races are often
age restricted
Laurie
Stebbo wrote:
> Hi All,
>
> There seems to be a little bit of interest in this area, and it's
> something that I've always been keen on doing... Like most who've
> tried in this area, I've been able to develop some very *bad* systems
> which give quite nice losses, but when trying to lay them always find
> that they're donkeys and the backers want high odds.
>
> I've been playing with this idea for a little while, and have come up
> with the following figures over the past two years..
>
> Bets: 3634
> Race S/R: 9.9%
> POT: -31.6%
> LRO: 73
>
> Although the loss isn't all that high, I wouldn't mind getting most of
> that on that sort of turnover. The "system" hasn't been "tuned" in
> the sense of looking for the areas which find losers, but rather is
> something that I threw together out of "intuition"...
>
> Almost half the bets are in the $2 to $11 range, where the S/R is 14%
> and the POT is a "healthy" -21%. It's interesting that the POT on
> races 1 to 4 is almost 40% on a poor s/r... Could be an interesting
> idea to just lay the first few races each day and take any profit that
> arises.
>
> I'd be interested in people's comments on whether this is layable on
> Betfair.
>
> Cheers,
> Chris.
=====
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