[ppug] Re: Lay Systems
- From: "Daniel Nettle" <dannettle@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: <ppug@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Wed, 25 Aug 2004 18:24:22 +0800
On the lower prices it probably would equate to that. But anything over around
the 6/1 mark you can expect to lay at 15-30% over the TAB odds. Sometimes you
get lucky on the 10/1's and can lay at around the same price. But generally,
the lower the odds, the lower the percentage you have to offer over the TAB
prices.
I reckon there's two ways to build a profitable laying system.
Method 1: focus on horses likely to be overbet by the general public, ie.
placed last start, barrier 1-8, last start 7 days ago.
Mehtod 2: Find a horse that has little chance of winning but for some reason
is a low price. This is mainly what I've tried to do using price's ratings,eg.
rated 6+ max sp 6.0
This is the area I'm weak on because I have very little knowledge of reading a
horse's form and assessing it's chances.
Dan
----- Original Message -----
From: Stebbo
To: ppug@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, August 25, 2004 6:04 PM
Subject: [ppug] Re: Lay Systems
At 07:59 PM 25/08/2004, Daniel Nettle wrote:
Hi Chris
I ssume when you say POT, you mean a profit if laying? 1000% in 2 yrs is a
very nice return but I don't think you'll get anywhere near that after you fine
tune it. How does the system run if you restrict the sp to 5/1 and under? I
don't think -21% would be enough for the $2 to $11 range, you'd probably just
break even laying those or you might make a small profit but probably wouldn't
be worth the effort.
Hi Daniel,
sorry, I should have made myself a bit clearer... The "POT" I was referring
to was the POT if you were backing the selections... Therefore, you need to
take an immediate 5% if you were laying them on betfair, and then a few more %
for better prices.... Without having tried it seriously, I'd reckon that a
-31% POT on the "back" side might equate to about a 15% Profit if you were
laying them... ??????
Cheers,
Chris.
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