[opendtv] Re: FCC Chairman Pai to the NAB
- From: Craig Birkmaier <brewmastercraig@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Sat, 29 Apr 2017 23:31:01 -0400
On Apr 29, 2017, at 8:08 PM, Manfredi, Albert E
<albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Short term means that retrans consent only applies for people who depend on a
local broadcast station, to get their network TV-owned content on an MVPD.
No Bert. The FCC required cable companies to carry all local stations many
decades ago.
You are correct that the payments are only made by MVPDs - the preferred method
of delivery for every broadcaster, especially those who just agreed to move to
Low VHF channels.
This number of people is eroding daily.
Not significantly.
As the economy improves and lower cost VMVPD bundles become available it is
likely we will see an increase in MVPD subscribers.
So, if you think retrans consent is the answer to anything, it is only
because the MVPDs count on luddites to keep paying more, to compensate for
the cord cutters.
The MVPDs have little choice but to raise rates, as both retrans consent and
other subscriber fees keep increasing. And the cable MVPDs are opening up many
new businesses to compensate for any cord cutter losses. Cox is moving big time
into business ISP services and home automation/security.
The erosion is continuous, Craig. You seem to think these things are binary.
I think that the issue is way overblown. We are in the midst of a sea change in
the way people consume content. But the usual suspects are going to come out on
top no matter what happens.
I strongly suspect that there will be massive "cord cutting" by the
end of the year as the new VMVPD services offer meaningful bundles at
half the cost of the legacy MVPDs.
Who knows. (But you keep using "VMVPD" to convince yourself you haven't been
off base for a very long time.) This is an ongoing phenomenon. It has been
evolving for quite some time, starting ca. 2006.
NOPE. There are only a few cities that have a VMVPD service that is comparable
to legacy MVPD services. But this is about to change, which is why I predict a
major shift from MVPD to VMVPD bundles.
What started in 2006 was the availability of some limited video streaming
services. The real growth has occurred since 2010, largely because most home
Internet services were not fast enough to replace the dedicated video bundles.
I don't know that there will be any sudden changes, rather a steady change
caused by more and more options made available to people. OTT sites in
general have been providing these options. Many millions of households, by
now, have been making changes, WITHOUT waiting for an exact online replica of
what they had in the olden days. Some shave the cord, some cut the cord, by
replacing bundles with OTT options. Those who are too inflexible simply pay
more, and remain loyal to the old model. The MVPDs are milking these for all
they are worth, at least for the time being.
And some rely only on an antenna. Actually many millions...
What are they to do Bert? Live linear TV is dying. Right?
;-)
Hardly irrelevant. Recording an event, for whatever reason, shows that the
live signal is far from mandatory. Internet services would have no trouble
offering content with just a 5 minute delay, if that's what it takes. Or a
one minute delay, just to get this point across. And they will find people
who would love this type of flexibility. Your idea that live is necessary
just doesn't hold water.
Internet service is about to offer 50 or more live linear channels and VOD
access to most of the content these channels carry. For the most part this is
true today with legacy MVPD services thanks to TV Everywhere.
And to compensate the content owners, this type of service would make it
impossible to skip ads. So they actually have an incentive to innovate this
way.
Hulu already offers a premium service WITHOUT ads Bert.
Netflix has no ads. HBO has no Ads. CuriosityStream has no ads. CRTV has no ads.
Obviously many homes will subscribe to more than one service, since this is
ALREADY true.
No doubt there will be some VMVPD services that will not allow ad skipping in
return for a lower price. But there will also be services like Dish Hopper that
will skip the ads for a little more each month.
What you continue to ignore is the reality that live linear TV still
draws millions of viewers.
An eroding number of people, who have been set up this way for decades, and
are just too lazy to make the change.
No. They are too lazy to program their DVRs and search for VOD programs that
would demand their attention. Millions of people just turn on the TV for
background noise.
So it happens bit by bit. Trends are all that matters. Live distribution was
the only game in town, and is no more. The live signal can be sent by
satellite to edge servers, and consumed with any amount of delay, or no
delay, by the users. Once you have your home setup up to date, between live
and on demand, there is no sudden step difference. It's a continuum.
As I said, there is a sea change going on Bert. But there are also some very
powerful media companies with the ability to strongly impact both the rate of
change and the ultimate shape of TV in the future.
All of this exists already. The key is to move your thinking beyond the
restrictions of early 20th Century technology. (The title of this thread was
Chairman Pai's address to the NAB. This is where the broadcasters should be
playing these days. This is what the Chairman should have mentioned.)
Why should the broadcasters be playing in Las Vegas Bert?
What exactly is the NAB doing for broadcasters these days Bert?
Does the industry still have the power to get the politicians to MANDATE a new
TV standard?
The reality is that it does not matter. The stations will still be paid for
their signals by the VMVPDs, just as they are by the legacy MVPDs. And those
fees are projected to reach $20 billion annually by the end of this decade.
Regards
Craig
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