[opendtv] Re: Analysis: Why the TV Market Has Been a Bust
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Mon, 20 Feb 2012 18:43:41 -0500
At 4:02 PM -0600 2/20/12, Manfredi, Albert E wrote:
You mean, as opposed to keep the prices so high that HDTV was going
to remain a niche product?
Your being absurd here Bert.
Yes the prices were high in the early years for several reasons:
1. Analog HD projection was relatively easy but far from cheap, and very bulky.
2. LCD was not viable in larger screen sizes until ~2005; as with any
new display technology the prices fell rapidly as the technology
matured and large scale manufacturing began.
3. Plasma was also expensive to manufacture in the early years and
capacity was limited.
The market really took off when it became possible to buy a 40 - 50
inch HDTV for less than $2000. What's more, everyone was making
decent profits.
Now you can buy a 40" TV for less than $300 and a 55" TV for less than $700.
Yes, lower cost manufacturers helped the big guys race to the bottom,
but the real problem was that there was NO INNOVATION. 3D was a bust
and the whole Internet thing was viewed as a threat rather than an
opportunity.
The reason our standard of living has been going up, steadily, over
the years, is because we've had a constant, gradual increase in
PRODUCTIVITY. Meaning, how much bang you get for the buck. It's been
increasing at something around 2 or 2 1/2 percent per year,
averaged, ever since WWII. There's no reason to believe that
standard household items, like radios and TVs, kitchen appliances,
and now even PCs, cell phones, and tablets, wouldn't or shouldn't
continue that trend.
Any company that can't achieve these productivity improvements is
simply left in the cold.
And too, what made HDTV work was that the FCC mandated it to fit in the
same 6 MHz channel as analog TV.
Your opinion.
Fact, Craig. These are age-old debates we've had on here. MUSE and
HD-MAC failed, because they were not meant to be the new "standard
for the masses." They were a niche product, very few available
channels, unable to replace for-the-masses analog TV.
Wrong argument.
HDTV DID NOT succeed because of broadcasters...
ANYWHERE.
It was driven first here in the U.S. by DVD; later the networks got
on board. The BIGGEST driver was sports; ESPN jumped quickly, and is
now disrupting the broadcast sports markets because they have the
money to pay for ever escalating rights fees.
Remember how DTV development in Europe staunchly opposed HDTV?
Because of their previous HD experience? Well, what they missed was
that making HDTV spectrum-compatible was going to change that
equation dramatically. And it did.
NOPE.
Europe gave everyone NEAR HDTV quality on affordable TVs using the
same technology as DVD.
HDTV is firmly established in Europe today - it is only the
broadcasters who are late to the party.
What Made HDTV work was a vastly superior picture on vastly superior
(and larger) NON-CRT displays.
Not true. If they continued to cost in the 10s of Kbucks, and if
they continued to provide only a half dozen channels, HDTV would
have continued to fail. Spectrum compatibility, and manufacturing
efficiencies which brought prices down to the same ballpark as
fuzzy-old-square-screen analog TV, is what made the difference.
They never cost 10s of Kbucks.
People did not need a ton of channels because they had near HD
movies. When Hollywood produce broadcast content came along it
helped, but was not a big factor since half the broadcast audience
was already gone. When HD sports started to be available things
really took off.
Then there is the orthogonal argument. How fast can the industry
screw all of the consumers into having to buy new equipment?
It took broadcasters only the amount of time it took to get the FCC
to mandate the ATSC standard. Now everyone has an outdated ATSC tuner
that hardly anyone uses, that won't work with ATSC 2.0 unless you add
a STB.
Regards
Craig
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