[opendtv] Re: Analysis: Why the TV Market Has Been a Bust
- From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Mon, 20 Feb 2012 16:02:35 -0600
Craig Birkmaier wrote:
> IF it is true that Korean and Chinese TV manufacturers are going strong
> - which I doubt - it is because they can operate on even thinner margins
> than the Japanese.
Why would you think that the TV industry is different from any other? Chinese
and Korean factories are churning out all sorts of products we use every day,
because they can produce them at lower cost.
And just like Japan used to be able to do this, but can no more, same will no
doubt happen to China and Korea. As their wages and standard of living go up.
Then India. And so on. Who knows, maybe eventually Africa will become the
continent where the bulk of low cost manufacturing takes place.
> 1. That once again the CE industry managed turn what was supposed to be
> their salvation into a cheap commodity.
You mean, as opposed to keep the prices so high that HDTV was going to remain a
niche product?
The reason our standard of living has been going up, steadily, over the years,
is because we've had a constant, gradual increase in PRODUCTIVITY. Meaning, how
much bang you get for the buck. It's been increasing at something around 2 or 2
1/2 percent per year, averaged, ever since WWII. There's no reason to believe
that standard household items, like radios and TVs, kitchen appliances, and now
even PCs, cell phones, and tablets, wouldn't or shouldn't continue that trend.
Any company that can't achieve these productivity improvements is simply left
in the cold.
>> And too, what made HDTV work was that the FCC mandated it to fit in the
>> same 6 MHz channel as analog TV.
>
> Your opinion.
Fact, Craig. These are age-old debates we've had on here. MUSE and HD-MAC
failed, because they were not meant to be the new "standard for the masses."
They were a niche product, very few available channels, unable to replace
for-the-masses analog TV.
Remember how DTV development in Europe staunchly opposed HDTV? Because of their
previous HD experience? Well, what they missed was that making HDTV
spectrum-compatible was going to change that equation dramatically. And it did.
> What Made HDTV work was a vastly superior picture on vastly superior
> (and larger) NON-CRT displays.
Not true. If they continued to cost in the 10s of Kbucks, and if they continued
to provide only a half dozen channels, HDTV would have continued to fail.
Spectrum compatibility, and manufacturing efficiencies which brought prices
down to the same ballpark as fuzzy-old-square-screen analog TV, is what made
the difference.
> Fitting HDTV into a 6 MHz channel was a "Feat" in its day. This feat has
> long been surpassed, yet broadcasters are stuck with it while competitors
> are moving on to improved compression techniques. Could this be why the
> ATSC want to create yet another new standard?
No matter what the compression technique, fitting into standard OTA and cable
channels means that HDTV can provide large volumes of content over existing
infrastructure. This was key.
Then there is the orthogonal argument. How fast can the industry screw all of
the consumers into having to buy new equipment?
As I already pointed out, changing compression algorithms is not free for
consumers. It's not just a matter of software. E.g., when H.264 came around,
our 2.8 GHz single-core PC was unable to keep up.
But people have been trained to toss out PCs after a few years, and certainly
people wouldn't be caught dead with a fashion accessory like an iPhone or iPad
that is more than a couple of years old, so it's not a big problem. But TVs
don't fit this model.
STBs can be used, of course, but people all over the world don't like to have
to use STBs. That's why OTA TVs are integrated TVs all over the world, Craig.
STBs are always a transitional product, unless forced on consumers by an MVPD.
As far as I'm concerned, ATSC could comfortably wait until H.265 codecs become
standardized and available, and then jump to something dramatically new and
different. And mobility would be a prime concern, especially because ISP nets
are getting to be up to the task of delivering TV content to fixed TVs of the
masses.
Bert
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