[lit-ideas] Re: Is Bush unopposed?

  • From: John McCreery <mccreery@xxxxxxx>
  • To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Tue, 7 Sep 2004 10:29:56 +0900

On 2004/09/07, at 5:25, Eric Yost wrote:

> I admit that I just don't get it. Could someone here illuminate the Dem
> party's lay-down-and-die-ism? Kerry knew who he was dealing with, and 
> he
> knew they weren't clean, kid-gloves types. (Didn't he?)
> in labor,
> Carol
> (In labor? Hmmm. Must be a lucky guy out there somewhere...)
> My understanding was that Kerry just didn't have the money to blow in
> August. Now that the creeps have had there shindig on 32nd Street, the
> DEMs can blow their coffers on TV ads.

While not being an altogether happy camper myself, I urge folks here 
and on other lists not to panic. If you check www.race2004.net, one of 
the better and more neutral of the electoral vote forecast sites you 
will find that the numbers today are

Bush: 157 Strong: 142 Weak: 15
Kerry: 211 Strong: 135 Weak: 76

Undecided: 170

The latest analysis from Princeton statistician Sam Wang, who uses data 
from RealClearPolitics, is
>  Today's median (expected) outcome:  Kerry 274 EV, Bush 264 EV   (map)
> Kerry 95% confidence band:  242-305 EV (Electoral College win 
> likelihood 57%)

As predicted, the race is tight, but Bush is far from having seized any 
overwhelming advantage.

What Eric says is true. The Kerry campaign was largely lying low during 
August, letting the DNC and 527s carry the weight. Why? Because both 
campaigns are limited to the $75 million they get from the Government, 
as of the day the nomination is accepted.  Kerry is widely known as a 
strong finisher who often seems weak in mid-campaign. He has, arguably, 
been pursuing an old Boston strategy, "Don't fire until you see the 
whites of their eyes."

But the more important point is this: All evidence points to a genuine 
conspiracy on the part of a few right-leaning polling organizations and 
selected right-leaning media to create an illusory bump for Bush 
(which, when you poll with samples containing 58% Republicans to start 
with and use polling techniques, calling home phones at certain times 
of day, isn't hard to do).

We can't keep them from doing that. What we can do is refuse to panic, 
dig in our heels and work our buns off. Going into Chicken Little mode 
is, for sure, the way to wind up fried chicken.

John McCreery

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