Hi MarkR,
It's all a matter of opinion and speculation and individual points of
view at the moment.
In my view, it will get a lot worse before it gets better, both in terms
of the number of people who get it and the number that die from it...
I also think that the global financial situation as well as the economic
situations in the worlds' nation states will get a lot worse, a lot more
quickly and longer term than most people think, including the experts,
which may well produce upheavals in those countries which are more
vulnerable than others in terms of political, economic, social and
cultural stability. It's going to be a tough ole world for a few years...
ATB
Dougie.
On 31/03/2020 15:52, MarkR wrote:
On 30/03/2020 12:55, MarkR wrote:
Looking at the stats, it could be that the rate of both identified infections[1] and deaths is slowing down. It's only been two days of a lower rates so the trend might not hold up, but good news if it does.
I have to say that it seems to good (or too soon, to be precise) to be true but we'll see.
If the trend does continue (fingers crossed) it would fit with the (possibly strengthening) research evidence suggesting that the majority of the British people have already been infected, possibly weeks or even months ago.
As I say, though, it still seems a tad too good to be true this soon. We'll see.
Footnote:-
1: It is worth remembering that the only identified infections in the UK are in people who have presented at hospital with symptoms serious enough to need hospital treatment. This is an inevitably small proportion of those who have any symptoms at all which is in turn a very small proportion (it would seem) of the people who have been infected.
Well, it looks like the death rate is no longer trending down. It's way up. I cannot describe how disappointing this is, although as above I was cautious about the oddly reducing rate in the last few days. I thought it was too good to be true.
According to https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/coronavirus-uk-death-toll-rises-to-1808-after-393-die-in-record-daily-surge/ar-BB11XXbw (aggregated from The Independent) there were 383 deaths in one day. It is not clear whether or not this includes the earlier 'missing' deaths that have recently been reported being added in one day. Sadly I suspect it is genuinely new deaths.
It's an absolutely shocking increase on previous days.
By the way, this website, 'COVID-19: track coronavirus cases' https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-track-coronavirus-cases, has links to download Excel spreadsheets containing the official death stats. The final download link at https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/documents/Historic%20COVID-19%20Dashboard%20Data.xlsx is informative.
