[cryptome] Re: Day11:HI: Confirmed New Cases of Coronavirus in UK
- From: MarkR <cryptome@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: cryptome@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Tue, 31 Mar 2020 15:52:50 +0100
On 30/03/2020 12:55, MarkR wrote:
Looking at the stats, it could be that the rate of both identified
infections[1] and deaths is slowing down. It's only been two days of a
lower rates so the trend might not hold up, but good news if it does.
I have to say that it seems to good (or too soon, to be precise) to be
true but we'll see.
If the trend does continue (fingers crossed) it would fit with the
(possibly strengthening) research evidence suggesting that the
majority of the British people have already been infected, possibly
weeks or even months ago.
As I say, though, it still seems a tad too good to be true this soon.
We'll see.
Footnote:-
1: It is worth remembering that the only identified infections in the
UK are in people who have presented at hospital with symptoms serious
enough to need hospital treatment. This is an inevitably small
proportion of those who have any symptoms at all which is in turn a
very small proportion (it would seem) of the people who have been
infected.
Well, it looks like the death rate is no longer trending down. It's way
up. I cannot describe how disappointing this is, although as above I was
cautious about the oddly reducing rate in the last few days. I thought
it was too good to be true.
According to
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/coronavirus-uk-death-toll-rises-to-1808-after-393-die-in-record-daily-surge/ar-BB11XXbw
(aggregated from The Independent) there were 383 deaths in one day. It
is not clear whether or not this includes the earlier 'missing' deaths
that have recently been reported being added in one day. Sadly I suspect
it is genuinely new deaths.
It's an absolutely shocking increase on previous days.
By the way, this website, 'COVID-19: track coronavirus cases'
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-track-coronavirus-cases,
has links to download Excel spreadsheets containing the official death
stats. The final download link at
https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/documents/Historic%20COVID-19%20Dashboard%20Data.xlsx
is informative.
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