Hi MarkR,
The trouble is that until we get proper mass testing of a significant
part of the population, both for whether a person has the infection and
for those who have had the infection, and now have antibodies, we won't
really know who has had it, got it etc. With that in mind it makes it
very difficult to predict how much further the virus will spread amongst
the population, how quickly and by how much and for how long, that is
why the government is compelling people to stay at home, where
possible. There is also the question of re-infections of people who
have already had it. These are the scientific unknowns which are
affecting the computer and statistical modelling used by the experts. I
haven't seen any evidence which suggests or intimates that the majority
of UK people have already been infected...could you give me the source
please?
ATB
Dougie.
On 30/03/2020 12:55, MarkR wrote:
On 30/03/2020 12:03, douglasrankine wrote:
Monday 30th March 2020
see url: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/coronavirus-uk-how-many-confirmed-cases-are-in-your-area
see article for more information, graphs and statistics.
Confirmed UK cases
19,522
New cases
2,433
UK deaths
1,228
England
16,487
Scotland
1,384
Wales
1,241
NI
410
Looking at the stats, it could be that the rate of both identified infections[1] and deaths is slowing down. It's only been two days of a lower rates so the trend might not hold up, but good news if it does.
I have to say that it seems to good (or too soon, to be precise) to be true but we'll see.
If the trend does continue (fingers crossed) it would fit with the (possibly strengthening) research evidence suggesting that the majority of the British people have already been infected, possibly weeks or even months ago.
As I say, though, it still seems a tad too good to be true this soon. We'll see.
Footnote:-
1: It is worth remembering that the only identified infections in the UK are in people who have presented at hospital with symptoms serious enough to need hospital treatment. This is an inevitably small proportion of those who have any symptoms at all which is in turn a very small proportion (it would seem) of the people who have been infected.
