[opendtv] Re: Shifting Online, Netflix Faces New Competition

At 4:00 PM -0500 9/27/10, Manfredi, Albert E wrote:

So let's try again.
The article you posted proves that the content in the cloud also has constraints. Just as the casual, plain jane PVR owner MAY forget to record a show he intended to record, this Internet cloud that you put so much faith in may not have that content either. So in fact, not all that different, in the end.
Again, this is about negotiations with the content owners, not the fundamental differences between content available from the cloud versus content available on programmed channels with schedules.
To put this in a slightly different light, consider this HIGHLY unlikely possibility:
What if Congress passed a law that says that content owners MUST license their programming at fair and non-discriminatory rates (similar to the waivers one signs when participating in ISO standards work). Every form of distribution would then be on an equal footing.
Ad you have noted, the cloud is essentially unlimited; in theory you could access EVERYTHING from the cloud on demand. But broadcasting is VERY FINITE. There are limits on the number of channels in any market and the number of programs that can be delivered via these channels. Yes, broadcasters could still attract an audience, but they could not deliver everything, and you would still need to program your PVR to time shift the content you want to watch. 




 I'd go a step further and say the war will be won by those content
 creators who are courageous enough to go directly to "the cloud" and
 bypass the studios.
And guess what, Craig. The minute any of these producers becomes noticed, the minute their content becomes desirable, they too will play games with transmission rights. It's not like the studio moguls are aliens from outer space. They are a product of their industry.
The Internet is winning because of disintemediation; the ability to cut out the middlemen.When producers decide to go direct to the consumer we will FINALLY have a real market for content; a market where the producer can charge as much as the market will bear.
So yes, highly popular programs will most likely make more money that less popular programs. But the only game they will have in their bag of tricks will be PRICE; exclusive distribution deals are meaningless in a world where you are dealing directly with the consumer.
Until then, we will still see negotiation for distribution deals as the primary way in which the normal operation of markets is subverted. 

Regards
Craig


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