[opendtv] Re: Shifting Online, Netflix Faces New Competition

  • From: "John Shutt" <shuttj@xxxxxxxxx>
  • To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Tue, 28 Sep 2010 09:38:00 -0400

Craig,
I think you vastly underestimate the current and near term projected state of 'high speed' internet in flyover country, both in capacity and availability.
I think you vastly underestimate the difficulties, both technical and political, in implementing protocols that are required before mass communications such as OTA or MPVD can be replaced - namely multicast.
I think you vastly underestimate the technical savvy of the majority of the audience for these mass communication programs.
I think you nailed the fact that for a select few, on demand programming from subscription services such as Apple Store and Netflix are going to be the wave of the future, and those adopters will abandon OTA viewing. However, I doubt that Apple Store and Netflix will completely displace OTA. I think one complements the other, and just as DVDs are a revenue enhancement for theatrical feature film releases, Apple Store and Netflix will be a revenue enhancement for OTA programming.
It reminds me of the (probably fictional) New York socialite who was bewildered at how Ronald Reagan could have possibly gotten elected President when "nobody I know even voted for the man." 

John
----- Original Message ----- From: "Craig Birkmaier" <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
That being said, the broadcast networks will survive as long as OTA broadcasting survives. The reason is that they are a small part of big content oligopolies that can afford to use them like the loss leader sales that retailers use to bring people into the stores. 

Regards
Craig





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