Good theory, but it takes too long and leaves a long trail of data. Seems
SpaceX is still grasping at all the straws because they have no (or very
little) anomalous data. SpaceX recently asked the general public for videos
to help them identify (triangulate) a noise 4 seconds before the explosion.
To me it sounded like the squeak, bang, rattle of a dump truck dumping
dirt. Or, they have plenty of data and are just being quite.
https://youtu.be/_BgJEXQkjNQ?t=1m16s
Also, SpaceX has been working hard to get NASA comfortable with loading
fuel with Astronauts onboard.
http://www.floridatoday.com/story/tech/science/space/2016/
07/29/nasa-orders-second-spacex-crew-mission-iss/87672158/
`McAlister also said that NASA continues to assess SpaceX's new method for
fueling upgraded Falcon 9 rockets just a half-hour before launch. That
timeline would put astronauts on top of the rocket while fuel is loaded
.... “We are getting more comfortable with it, but we are not yet ready to
say we’re good,” McAlister said of SpaceX's procedure. “We’re still working
through that.”`
So, I can imagine NASA has been expressing concerns and SpaceX has been
addressing them, maybe even making changes in the fuel loading procedures
to get NASA "comfortable"
If the GHe COPV tank let go it would send a cloud of carbon/resin dust into
the lox, the dust would be the fuel. At 6000psi the COPV tank is going to
have thick wall and lots of thermal mass.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UdVnO10J3U
On Sat, Sep 10, 2016 at 3:48 AM, George William Herbert <
george.herbert@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Ok, I have a theory.
They were loading RP-1, Supercooled LOX, and GHe.
LOX tank was chilled but the Kero tank was not. Aluminum gets stronger at
cryo temps.
Partway through loading a GHe tank lets go. The flight kaboom some time
back had a full LOX tank so little space for the GHe to go, blew the LOX
tank. This time, half-full LOX tank is enough expansion space (just) to
avoid blowing the tank immediately. But the warmer tank bottom or feed
line down weren't as well chilled and are therefore weaker, and rupture.
*ping*. And pressure drops in LOX tank.
So the LOX and GHE drop into the RP-1 tank. They don't have time to mix
much to detonable mixture. Mixture of ongoing GHE venting and LOX boiling
from the RP-1 raises combines tanks pressure again and the warmest barrel
sections, the RP-1 tank outer walls, rupture. Possibly, a small volume
reached explosive mixed conditions and turbulence or static or impact
detonates a small explosion in a bigger mass of still mixing materials.
Some of what's ejected out is LOX - white fluffy non burnie cloud that
evaporates in the heat. Some is RP-1 and just burns. Some is mixing
RP-1/LOX and burns REALLY WELL.
When the RP-1 hoop section lets go you have say 100 PSI times pi/4 times
144 squared or say 1.6 million pounds downwards force on the lower RP-1
tank dome and the Vacuum Merlin, held up by the interstage. The Interstage
structure fails due to gross overload, Merlin and tank dome are forced down
into Stage 1 LOX tank and destroying the first stage.
Sent from my iPhone
