[spotters-illianaskywarn] Fwd: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
- From: Keith Reedy <keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sat, 1 Sep 2012 21:05:10 -0400
Keith Reedy
keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
Begin forwarded message:
> From: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
> Date: September 1, 2012 8:26:29 PM EDT
> To: keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> Reply-To: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>
> You are subscribed to SPC Mesoscale Discussion for NOAA's National Weather
> Service.
>
>
> SPC MD 1856
> 09/01/2012 08:14 PM EDT
>
> MD 1856 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 602... FOR E CNTRL IL
>
>
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1856
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 0713 PM CDT SAT SEP 01 2012
>
> AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL IL
>
> CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 602...
>
> VALID 020013Z - 020115Z
>
> THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 602 CONTINUES.
>
> SUMMARY...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS
> POSSIBLE...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
> MARGINAL OVER REMAINING PART OF WW 602 AND POINTS EAST. HOWEVER...WW
> MAY BE EXPANDED FARTHER EAST INTO SRN IND AND WRN KY.
>
> DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE EVOLVED INTO PREDOMINANT LINEAR MODES WITH
> TRAILING STRATIFORM AREA FROM ECNTRL THROUGH SERN IL...BUT A COUPLE
> DISCRETE CELLS REMAIN. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE BACKED TO ESELY ACROSS
> ECNTRL IL...BUT SIZE OF HODOGRAPHS ARE LIMITED BY WEAK WIND SPEEDS.
> WITH STRONGER 0-3 KM FLOW AND GREATER INSTABILITY PERSISTING SOUTH
> OF REMAINING PARTS OF WW 602...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
> GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THIS AREA WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
> REMAINING PARTS OF WW 602 CAN BE CANCELLED AS NEEDED AS ONGOING
> CONVECTION SHIFTS FARTHER EAST.
>
> ..DIAL.. 09/02/2012
>
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
>
> ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...
>
> LAT...LON 39278801 39648805 40378846 40568787 40198744 39348751
> 39278801
>
> Read more
> SPC MD 1855
> 09/01/2012 08:00 PM EDT
>
> MD 1855 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 604... FOR MUCH OF UTAH...SRN
> ID...FAR SWRN WY...NWRN CO
>
>
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1855
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 0649 PM CDT SAT SEP 01 2012
>
> AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF UTAH...SRN ID...FAR SWRN WY...NWRN CO
>
> CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 604...
>
> VALID 012349Z - 020115Z
>
> THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 604
> CONTINUES.
>
> SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN AND AROUND WW
> 604 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS
> SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE.
>
> DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS DEPICT A DIMINISHING NUMBER OF
> TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA. THIS IS LIKELY A RESULT OF
> REDUCED LARGE-SCALE FORCING AS THE LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
> A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW OVERHEAD OR JUST E OF N-CNTRL UT. DESPITE
> THE REDUCED COVERAGE...THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
> ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND/HAIL. RECENT
> DEVELOPMENT ACROSS TOOELE CO APPEARS TO HAVE ORGANIZED INTO A
> RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE
> TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS W-CNTRL EWD INTO CNTRL UT.
>
> N OF THE WATCH AREA /SRN ID/...SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT QUITE AS
> STRONG BUT GIVEN THE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S AND MODEST INSTABILITY
> /MLCAPE AOA 500 J/KG/ A FEW STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE
> POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS THE ACTIVITY PROGRESSES EWD INTO A DRY
> LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
>
> E OF THE WATCH AREA /NWRN CO/...SHEAR PROFILE AND INSTABILITY ARE
> WEAKER BUT THE ONGOING ACTIVITY HAS SHOWN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
> STRONG WIND GUSTS. TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS AREA MAY INTENSIFY AS
> THE SHEAR PROFILE GRADUALLY INCREASES /DEPICTED WELL ON THE GJX VAD
> PROFILE/. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL LIKELY LIMIT
> TSTM COVERAGE AND THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
>
> ..MOSIER.. 09/01/2012
>
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
>
> ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...VEF...LKN...
>
> LAT...LON 38141406 42001404 42001106 41591104 41571006 41001004
> 41000998 39820996 39441001 39101015 38941018 38861017
> 38641008 38491003 38521179 38411183 38161183 38141406
>
> Read more
>
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