http://mediarelations.cornell.edu/2016/06/14/possibility-of-alien-contact-could-be-1500-years-away/
"Deconstructing the Fermi Paradox and pairing it with the Mediocrity Principle
into a fresh equation, Cornell astronomers say extraterrestrials likely won’t
phone home – or Earth – for 1,500 years.
“We haven’t heard from aliens yet, as space is a big place – but that doesn’t
mean no one is out there,” said Cornell student Evan Solomonides ’19, who will
present “A Probabilistic Analysis of the Fermi Paradox” at the American
Astronomical Society’s meeting June 16 in San Diego. Yervant Terzian, Cornell’s
Tisch Distinguished University Professor of Astronomy, is the co-author of the
paper upon which this presentation is based.
“It’s possible to hear any time at all, but it becomes likely we will have
heard around 1,500 years from now,” said Solomonides. “Until then, it is
possible that we appear to be alone – even if we are not. But if we stop
listening or looking, we may miss the signals. So we should keep looking.”
The Fermi Paradox says billions of Earth-like planets exist in our galaxy, yet
no aliens have contacted or visited us. Thus the paradox: the cosmos teems with
possibility. The mediocrity principle – originated by 16th-century
mathematician Copernicus – says Earth’s physical attributes are not unique"
--Ahrvid
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