[opendtv] Picture brightens for large-sized LCD panels, says iSuppli
- From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Thu, 12 Jul 2007 15:18:36 -0400
Looks like LCDs, widescreen LCDs specifically, are becoming the standard
for TVs and computer monitors. Makes sense to me. Once you're rid of the
constraints imposed by vacuums on glass bottle bottoms, going widescreen
doesn't cost anything extra.
I figured that as TVs went to widescreen, PCs would soon follow. It
looks like 16:9 will become the new display monitor standard.
The other trend is to larger TVs, as the prices of panels 40" and bigger
is coming down faster than the price of smaller panels. Which should
increase the demand for "better than SD" quality signals for TV.
It took a looong time. We seem to have really left behind the amazingly
long-lived ancient TV standards of grainy, low definition images, square
screens, and huge sets.
Bert
---------------------------------------------
July 10, 2007
Picture brightens for large-sized LCD panels, says iSuppli
Revenue to exceed $100 billion for first time in 2011
El Segundo, Calif., -- Citing rising demand, tightening supply and
increasing prices, iSuppli Corp. has raised its forecast for large-sized
LCD panel shipments for 2007 and the following years.
Global revenue for large-sized LCD panels, i.e. those with diagonal
dimensions of 10 inches or greater, will rise to $66 billion in 2007, up
22.2 percent from $54 billion in 2006. This represents a 6 percent
increase compared to iSuppli's previous forecast of $62 billion for
2007.
In 2007, worldwide shipments are forecast to reach 353.8 million units,
up 25.2 percent from 282.5 million units in 2006. iSuppli previously
predicted shipments of 350.1 million units for the year.
"Following weak pricing conditions in the fourth quarter of 2006 and in
the first quarter of 2007, the large-sized LCD panel market entered into
a robust recovery in the second quarter-and strong conditions are
persisting in the third quarter," said Sweta Dash, director, LCD and
projection research for iSuppli. "Demand is rising from all three major
markets for such panels: televisions, desktop monitors and notebook PCs.
Meanwhile, inventories remain under control. This combination of rising
demand and constrained supply is causing overall panel prices to
increase. Demand for ever-larger LCD-TVs has prompted iSuppli to raise
its revenue forecast by a larger margin than its unit forecast."
This strength should continue during the coming years. Dash predicted
the large-sized LCD panel market would expand to 597.6 million units by
2011, up 2 percent from iSuppli's previous forecast of 587.1 million
units. Revenue will reach $102 billion in 2011, up 6 percent from
iSuppli's previous forecast of $96 billion for the year. This will mark
the first year the global large-sized LCD panel market exceeds $100
billion in size.
"In the coming years, unit growth will be driven by increased adoption
of LCD-TVs among the world's consumers," she added "Revenue growth will
arise from consumers shifting to bigger LCD-TVs, especially to
40/42-inch, and even larger sizes."
Fat sales for flat TVs
LCD-TV sales are being driven up by a combination of factors, including
lower prices for finished sets, improvements in performance, global
shifts to Digital Television (DTV) and the arrival of the Summer
Olympics in 2008.
Although costs for some panels are increasing or stabilizing, end prices
for LCD-TVs are expected to continue to decline due to intense
competition at the retail level.
iSuppli has upgraded its forecast of global large-sized LCD-TV panel
shipments in 2007 to 77.5 million units, a 2 percent increase from 75.6
million units previously.
"By 2008, shipments of large-sized LCD-TV panels are expected to break
the 100 million threshold for the first time, reaching 101.2 million
units," Dash said. "In 2009, LCDs will become the world's dominant
television display technology, accounting for 52 percent of unit
shipments. By 2011, LCDs are expected to take a 65 percent unit share of
the worldwide television market."
iSuppli predicts LCD-TV panel shipments will rise to 180.45 million
units in 2011, up 5 percent from our previous forecast of 172.2 million
units.
Factors boosting the LCD-TV market include increased adoption among
consumers and expected capacity increases for 7.5-, eighth-, ninth and
10th-generation LCD fabs, which can produce very large-sized television
panels more cost-effectively than older facilities can.
This has caused prices for the 40-inch and larger LCD panels to decline,
even as prices stabilize for 37-inch and smaller products. Because of
this, the price gap has closed between 32-inch and 40/42-inch panels,
which will contribute to higher consumer adoption rates of 40-inch and
larger LCD TVs.
Monitors stay afloat
A strong recovery in the desktop PC monitor market in the second and
third quarters is expected to drive sales to 163.2 million units in
2007, up 14 percent from 142.8 million in 2006. Greater adoption of wide
panels and a shift to larger sizes will keep monitor shipment growth
strong through 2011, iSuppli predicts.
The wide format is gaining popularity in the 17- , 19- , 20- and 22-inch
markets. Specifically, wide-format shipments increased from 25 percent
of total monitors shipped in the fourth quarter of 2006 to 33 percent in
the first quarter of 2007. Wide format is expected to attain a 78
percent share by 2011 due to the faster price reductions and higher
adoption rates.
"Lower prices, greater consumer acceptance, increasing support from
operating systems, escalating adoption in the gaming market and
compatibility with wide-format notebooks all will help boost shipments
of wide monitors," Dash said. "Price reductions and increased adoption
of wide monitors will drive demand in the future. Monitor panel sales
will reach 223 million units in 2011, with LCD technology accounting for
98 percent of the worldwide monitor market by that time."
Notebooks drive notable LCD demand
The notebook PC LCD panel market is expected to reach 99.6 million units
in 2007 and 161.5 million units in 2011, driven by lower prices, the
rise of wireless capabilities in portable computers and the shift to
larger display sizes. Wide-format displays accounted for 87 percent of
notebook shipments in the first quarter. By 2011, more than 97 percent
of notebook panels will use the wide format.
Signs of growth
Another market for large-sized LCD panels, electronic retail signage, is
projected to grow from 523,000 units in 2006 to 1.1 million units in
2007, and to rise to 15.4 million units by 2011. Retail signage
comprises the display and management of information in various retail
and commercial environments. LCD technology has established itself as a
viable alternative to plasma in the electronic signage market.
Reductions in prices and increases in performance-especially for the
largest LCD panels-have resulted in greater adoption of LCD technology
in the electronic signage market.
iSuppli Corporation is the global leader in technology value chain
research and advisory services. iSuppli provides market intelligence
services for the EMS, OEM and supplier communities in addition to
servicing consumer electronics and media concerns. Services afforded by
iSuppli range from electronic component research to device-specific
application market forecasts, from teardown analysis to consumer
electronics and from display device and systems research to multimedia
content and services. More information is available at www.isuppli.com.
All material on this site Copyright 2006 CMP Media LLC. All rights
reserved
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