[opendtv] Re: Multichannel News: FCC Needs to See the Light (of Innovation)
- From: Craig Birkmaier <brewmastercraig@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Mon, 10 Oct 2016 08:28:16 -0400
On Oct 9, 2016, at 8:38 PM, Manfredi, Albert E <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
Craig Birkmaier wrote:
1. The FCC does nothing. In this case it is primarily up to the
content owners to decide how quickly they want to kill the MVPDs
It's up to the consumer, Craig. Technology has gone beyond the old
restrictions, and consumers have figured it out. Content owners are finding
that they have to accommodate the consumer.
No Bert, the consumer is at the mercy of the monopolists.
The content owners would be fools to ignore new technologies that allow them to
grow their business. But this does not mean they are providing consumers with
alternatives to their walled gardens. If anything is changing, it is the
ADDITION of more walled gardens focused on library content.
2. The FCC moves forward with this NPRM, perhaps with a bit more
clarity on how they will regulate licensing.
The concept is dead. The majority of commissioners have understood.
You may have to eat those words soon.
EVEN IF, for some odd reason, they decide to go ahead with it, no one will
care. Subscribers themselves are making sure of that, over time.
You mean like nobody cared about the ATSC standard?
The transition to HDTV displays was driven first by DVDs, then HD upgrades to
the MVPD services. I had been watching HD programming for years before the
stations in Gainesville turned on their DTV transmitters.
Even if they do take up the NPRM again, it will be wasted work. People will
not decide to stop using their Internet appliances, just because the FCC may
perhaps take up this STB NPRM again. People will not suddenly go back to by
appointment viewing, especially not with old equipment. You can expect the
opposite to be the trend, because it has already been the trend.
What don't you get about what is happening in the real world Bert.? Are you so
ignorant because you refuse to pay for TV?
People still watch more live TV than appointment TV. Not that that matters, as
both will live happily together as far as the eye can see. People have lived
with multiple devices connected to their TVs for decades:
- VCRs
- Satellite dishes (not DBS - I'm talking about the big dishes people used in
the '80s)
- Game consoles
- DVD players
- Digital Video Recorders (you even bought one of these)
- MVPD STBs
- and now connected TVs or external connected devices
You are correct that people will not stop using their Internet appliances. They
won't stop using (V)MVPD services either.
Cord cutting and shaving is substantial and relentless, but even that isn't
the point. People are getting away from the old way of watching. You yourself
posted an article that shows how by appointment viewing has been considerably
under 50% for some time now, rather than close to 50% as it was just prior.
Yes I posted those articles. but they do not say appointment viewing is under
50%.
And we have seen that PVR use is flat, not increasing. So this says
something, Craig. It says that people are ignoring the STB more and more,
taking up streaming more and more, and watching programs on their big screen
that are NOT TV programs per se.
Streaming is replacing the DVR in many cases. DVRs. Require forethought and
planning. If "used" content is available on demand, one should expect the
technology to access it will evolve...
Remember the old saw about the blinking "12:00s" on the VCR? Programming a VCR
for time shifting was painful. DVRs largely solved this problem, but you still
had to plan ahead. It got to the point that Apps were being written to program
your DVR via the Internet.
Accessing content on demand is an obvious improvement, but it is not a game
changer.
Speaking of games, my wife loves her Alms Mater FSU, but can't stand the drama
of watching the football games live, with me. I used to record them on the DVR
if the game was available live, or watch the live linear replays the next day.
We dumped our DVR, and the next day replays are disappearing. Why?
Because I can go to Watch ESPN and access the replays on demand, as we did for
the last two Sundays. I can do this because I am a MVPD subscriber with access
to TV Everywhere.
DBS systems, both of them, are clearly migrating to the Internet. I don't
even understand what you mean by "at best." Their satellite broadcast, just
like the cabled MVPD MPEG-2 TS broadcast, is being used less and less.
Sorry, their subscriber numbers have actually increased, at the expense of the
wired MVPDs. And the stats for, the recent articles about the 4+ hours per day
of live TV being consumed apply equally to DBS, cable FTTH, and FOTA.
And DSL easily scales to "decent VMVP service." We already went over this
many times, Craig.
Sorry, but decent us not good enough. The ESPN replay was only 30 fps, clearly
inferior to the live version I watched Saturday night. DSL is NOT going to
survive long term.
Wrong again. The MAJORITY of TV viewing is still live as the recent
articles we have been discussing confirms.
And Craig pulls this stunt AGAIN. He really does not learn, eh?
http://www.broadcastingcable.com/news/next-tv/28-tv-viewing-done-streaming/142380
Thanks for making my case Bert!
28% is not the majority Bert. But it is growing...
Quote from this article, Craig, which you posted. What percentage of TV is
consumed live? Don't just read vague words, meant to reassure luddites, that
may superficially sound like your prejudices. Quote the actual number. How
much is viewed live? Hint: it used to be 47%, and it already fell quite a bit
more, even though this article too is dated by now. How far below 47% was it,
when this article was written? And remember too: "live" does not have to mean
"not streamed." "Live" does NOT mandate any old STB idea that you and the FCC
hold onto dearly.
Here's a quote:
The study found that 41% of TV viewers are what GfK MRI calls "Digital
Enthusiasts" who have a traditional pay-TV subscription plus three streaming
TV services.
People are using multiple sources for atV content Bert. As they have been doing
since the early '80s.
The local broadcasters compete with the local MVPD sales reps.
The point is, local ad insertions are common in the broadcasts from the local
stations, more so than on cable-only channels.
Really. Are you speaking from experience?
Obviously NOT.
The networks in the MVPD bundles offer more local ad avails than the broadcast
networks. Local commercial insertion is a huge business for the MVPDs.
But none of this is a problem, as I already explained. You are obsessing over
non-problem. You do not need old-school techniques to insert local ads. The
Internet is very capable of this too.
You need local access, as small businesses cannot afford to buy national and
regional ads. And you need inventory to sell.
So you pay for CBS All Access Bert?
Earth to Craig: you really don't need to PAY for all the TV you watch.
Correct. There are some free services that are useful. But most of what we
watch is not available for free, and the trend is to move more content behind
the PAY walls.
You keep claiming that all these new services like CBS All Access are changing
the world, but they are not part of YOUR WORLD.
You claimed that the TV nets won't go direct to consumer, and you are
factually wrong.
I never made such a claim. I said that the networks behind the pay walls will
remain behind the pay walls because that is how they generate multiple revenue
streams.
They did so with OTA forever, at least from their O&O stations, and they have
been doing so for a good 10 years online as well! And yes, CBS has added a by
subscription option too.
TV Broadcasting has ALWAYS been about maximizing audience reach. They are the
only service available to EVERYONE, be in FOTA, Basic Cable or a big bundle.
The fact that CBS is trying to sell subscriptions is an interesting, but
meaningless experiment - that's not where this train is going.
Regards
Craig
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