[lit-ideas] Re: The Shape of Fear
- From: "Andy Amago" <aamago@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "lit-ideas" <lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Fri, 4 Nov 2005 20:30:20 -0500
> [Original Message]
> From: Robert Paul <robert.paul@xxxxxxxx>
> To: <lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: 11/4/2005 7:15:57 PM
> Subject: [lit-ideas] Re: The Shape of Fear
>
>
> All of these things could be true, i.e., the present avian flu could
> mutate into a human-to-human transmissible form, etc., and there
> nevertheless be no serious flu pandemic. That a viral strain is
> human-to-human transmissible does not eo ipso make it a virulent (highly
> pathogenic) strain. That is one consideration. Another is, that as a
> virus mutates towards (not purposively, but randomly) human/human
> transmissibility, its virulence must diminish if it is to spread widely
> and rapidly: a virus has to walk a fine line between killing an infected
> organism quickly (thus making it unlikely that the organism will infect
> other organisms) and just occupying a few cells here and there. The
> ideal virus is one that makes its host sick, yet leaves it mobile.
>
Far be it for me to compete with Scientific American. I would, however,
like to quote a line from that site (I don't know who said it), "Influenza,
on the other hand, is transmissible before and during the early phases of
illness." That seems to invalidate a virus' need to not kill its host,
since it will have found another before its first host dies. Human hosts
are also limitless. No matter how many humans it kills, there will always
be another.
For Judy, most of those links are pretty recent, since Bush's speech.
MSNBC has a link way down at the bottom of the page under Health. I didn't
see it at all on CNN. Some media might be reporting it, but none are
hyping it. I would bet that Joe Average never even heard of bird flu.
Andy
> We will all see what this one will do. What it won't do, I'll bet my
> hat, is give us a re-run of 1918.
>
> Robert Paul
> Reed College
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