Strongly recommend a look at Albert-Lazlo Barabasi's Bursts
<http://www.amazon.com/Bursts-Hidden-Patterns-Everything-Crusades/dp/0452297184>.
Barabasi, a mathematician and network scientist, argues that what we were
taught in our youth, that individuals are hard to predict but that mass
behavior can be predicted using statistical laws, has the world backwards.
Mass behavior is like the weather, so complex and chaotic that any
prediction more than a day or two ahead is dicey. Individuals, however,
lead largely routine lives. The problem there is that previously collecting
data on billions of individuals was impossible, forcing pollsters,
marketers and policy makers to rely on statistical generalizations. Welcome
to the world of credit cars, Amazon, Alibaba, CCTV cameras with
sophisticated biometric and other pattern-recognition software, the NSA and
its counterparts. Only those who lead very eccentric lives are likely to be
unpredictable, and they will windup on terrorist-suspect lists.
Cheers,
John
On Mon, Apr 13, 2015 at 3:42 PM, Omar Kusturica <omarkusto@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
It may be interesting in the sense that it shows how difficult it is to
predict even mundane every-day events. One would think that, with all our
science, we would get a grasp on predicting whether it will rain tomorrow,
by now.
O.K.
On Mon, Apr 13, 2015 at 8:26 AM, Donal McEvoy <donalmcevoyuk@xxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
The weather is an interesting topic for philosophical speculation. It'sa
branch of conceptual analysis.>
If you believe either or both of these things, then, philosophically, you
are in the mire.
Dnl
Working on a conceptual analysis of how late the buses are running so as
to make it an interesting topic for philosophical speculation.
On Monday, 13 April 2015, 7:01, Omar Kusturica <omarkusto@xxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
The philosophy of weather is at least as developed in the Bay of Kotor as
in England. About April, the saying is "quattro Aprilante, quaranta
durante" (not sure if this is correct Italian, but this is the local
saying), meaning that, if it rains on April 4., it will last for 40 days.
But it didn't rain on April the fourth this year so it's difficult to make
a prediction, and we are left guessing about the weather like ordinary
mortals.
O.K.
On Sun, Apr 12, 2015 at 11:29 PM, Redacted sender Jlsperanza@xxxxxxx for
DMARC <dmarc-noreply@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
"It's just atwix the ricks
beside the barn where Farmer sticks inside
The chicks he only hatch'd today."
D. Ritchie writes:
"Spring has a certain certainty about it." and "wondering how far from
absolute certainty a certain certainty might be."
Indeed. I was recently reading the libretto to Rossini's libretto. At one
point, Otello says:
"sicuro son io del suo delitto"
which strikes me as Ayerian. For Freddie Ayer (Sir Freddie Ayer, if you
mustn't), to know is to be certain, to be sure. But surely Otello was
'sure'
(secure) and 'certain', AND wrong.
Omar K. comments on Spring:
"This particular spring has been kind of slow to show its hand; right now
it's looking like rain, but I don't believe it. We will see."
The above is a lesson in linguistic botany, in terms of the philosophy of
the weather. Note the reference to the Moore paradox, "It looks like rain,
but I don't believe it". Note the use of "look like" which is
Wittgensteinian, and the application to Strawson who in "Introduction to
Logical Theory"
discusses the logical form of "It's raining" "what is it?", Sir Peter
asks.
(That's Strawson). On top, Omar concludes with 'we will see', implicating
factiveness. In other words, we'll see it, 'before you know it'.
The weather is an interesting topic for philosophical speculation. It's a
branch of conceptual analysis.
Spring has a certain certainty about it.
Sampson once tested some of his students at Lancaster with allegedly
analytic propositions. One was:
i. Spring follows Winter.
76.4% of his students regarded it as 'analytic', 35.4% as "a priori".
When Popper learned about it, he said, "Surely Sampson should spend his
time in other than definitional matters". His implicature was that "Spring
follows Winter" cannot be falsified (or verified for that matter). That's
Anthony Popper.
Cheers,
Speranza
Sowin's pretty good
Reapin' ain't so bad
Scarin' off the crows
Suits a Farmer's lad
But if you axes me
The thing that suits a fellow
Is a little bit of straw to suck
To keep your fancies mellow
When you're leanin' on the gate beside
The pond that lies beside the side
Of Farmer's stacks of new mown hay
It's just atwix the ricks
Beside the barn where Farmer sticks inside
The chicks he only hatch'd today
Leanin', leanin'
I'm champion down our way, they say
At leanin' on the gate beside the pond that lies beside
The side of Farmer's stacks of new mown hay
That he's been gleanin'
While I've been leanin' -- all day.
------------------------------------------------------------------
To change your Lit-Ideas settings (subscribe/unsub, vacation on/off,
digest on/off), visit www.andreas.com/faq-lit-ideas.html
