[lit-ideas] Re: Hitchens Arguably on John Brown
- From: "Eric Yost" <mr.eric.yost@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: <lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 18 Oct 2011 16:42:58 -0400
The new science of complexity deals with systems that are networked,
robust, emergent, diverse, and independent. Outcomes of such systems are
not subject to linear equations or display Bell Curve distributions.
Rather they are subject to "power laws," which can result in sudden and
dramatic change. Examples include chess, economies, diplomacy, traffic
patterns, electrical distribution systems.and consciousness.
From: lit-ideas-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:lit-ideas-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of Andy
Sent: Tuesday, October 18, 2011 11:18 AM
To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [lit-ideas] Re: Hitchens Arguably on John Brown
On a Venn diagram coincidence and probability would partially overlap
with most of the circles not overlapping. Coincidences are by
definition unrelated, random events. I'm having a hard time reconciling
probability and random.
Andy
From: Donal McEvoy <donalmcevoyuk@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: "lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, October 18, 2011 9:57 AM
Subject: [lit-ideas] Re: Hitchens Arguably on John Brown
From: Andy <mimi.erva@xxxxxxxxx>
>I could be misunderstanding, but it seems to me that probability would
be different from coincidence.>
When I had written:-
>When we speak of a coincidence, even a 'pure coincidence' or a
'staggering coincidence', we are all either talking loosely or we are
straying into an area that requires understanding of probabilities and
indeed the various 'philosophies' of probability.>
This does not say that coincidence cannot be differentiated from
probability but rather that, if we are to rationally understand
"coincidence", we need to understand probabilities.
It is a coincidence that the gender of the next poster after this is the
same as mine (and it's a coincidence if it is not); but this coincidence
is hardly significant or striking given the probabilities involved. When
we point out a coincidence it is usually because we are assuming that
the probabilities involved are noteworthy: we might note that someone is
wearing the exact same rare t-shirt as us but not the coincidence that
they are also wearing a t-shirt or clothes at all. A person who utters
"What a coincidence!" when finding others in western society also
wearing footwear, or having two eyes, belongs in a discarded Monty
Python sketch.
Put another way, try developing a theory or account of 'coincidences'
[including what distinguishes a remarkable from an unremarkable
coincidence] that does not involve understanding probabilities.
Donal
Coincidentally avoiding his responsibilities elsewhere
Probably
England
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