[list_indonesia] [ppiindia] Waking up to China's threat
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- Date: Sun, 6 Mar 2005 23:12:05 +0100
** Mailing-List Indonesia Nasional Milis PPI-India www.ppi-india.da.ru **
Waking up to China's threat
By ALEXANDER K. YOUNG
Special to The Japan Times
NEW YORK -- On Feb. 19, Japan and the United States issued a joint statement
that maintaining peace and security in the Taiwan Strait is a common strategic
objective. This was nothing extraordinary except for the fact that Japan, for
the first time, joined the U.S. in voicing public concern about China's
military buildup in the area and about growing tension between China and
Taiwan.
After establishing diplomatic relations with China in 1972, Japan began
pursuing a policy of good will, emphasizing long historic and cultural ties. It
has provided tens of billions of dollars in government economic development aid
since 1979, contributing greatly to China's rapid economic growth. In doing so,
it has patiently endured ungrateful China's repeated calls on Japan to
apologize for past invasions, and to remember history, revise history
textbooks, deny tourist visas to former Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui and
demand that Japanese prime ministers stop visiting the Yasukuni Shrine.
Tokyo woke up to China's military threat in 1995 and 1996 when China test-fired
ballistic missiles over the Taiwan Strait. It has continued what some critics
have charged is "a spineless policy toward Beijing," expressing its concern
only in vague declarations and laws.
The 1996 joint Japan/U.S. security declaration listed North Korea, but not
China, as contributing to uncertainty in East Asia. The 1999 law for protecting
areas surrounding Japan (read: Taiwan) was situational in nature, avoiding a
geographic description of the law's coverage so as not to offend China.
China's challenges to Japan in 2004 included repeated intrusions of Chinese
ships into Japan's exclusive economic zone, natural gas drilling in waters
claimed by Japan, a nuclear submarine intrusion into Japanese territorial
waters in November, efforts to have a Japanese island south of Tokyo declared a
rock to deprive Japan of economic rights to thousands of square kilometers,
aggressive diplomatic offensive toward Southeast Asian countries to reduce
Japanese influence, and several anti-Japanese demonstrations (and near riots),
including that at the Asian cup soccer final in Beijing last summer.
Then there are the larger mid- and long-term strategic concerns that prodded
Japan into joining the U.S. in voicing concern about the Chinese threat. Among
them are China's rapid growth as a global economic power, its rise as a
regional political/military power able to form strategic partnerships
worldwide, the rapid shift in the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait to
China, the increase in the number of short- and middle-range ballistic missiles
targeting not only Taiwan but also Japan and U.S. forces in Japan, and China's
pursuit of a sea power strategy (in which the Chinese navy is moving further
east).
Also worrying Japanese and U.S. officials are China's ambitious national goals
and strategies such as rapid economic growth and military modernization in a
stable international and domestic environment under Communist Party
dictatorship. These strategies are aimed at (1) lifting China to superpower
status so that it can challenge the U.S. as well as perhaps contain Japan by
the mid-21st century and (2) establishing a hierarchical world order with China
at the top.
Changes inside Japan have contributed to the shift in Japanese policy toward
China. The expanded role of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's office in
foreign policymaking vs. the declining influence of the Foreign Ministry,
reputedly dominated by "China school officials" more interested in serving as
China's sycophants than in working for Japan's national interests, has been
important.
According to a December 2004 survey conducted by the Prime Minister's Office,
the percentage of Japanese polled who felt friendly toward China dropped by
10.3 points to 37.6, the lowest since the survey started in 1975. The
percentage of those who said they did not feel friendly toward China increased
dramatically to 58.2 from 48 in 2003. The portion who considered "current
Japanese-Chinese relations as good" plunged to 28.1 percent (from 46.9 percent
in 2003).
Predictably, China denounced the Feb. 19 joint statement as interference in its
internal affairs and as the wrong message to Taiwan's pro-independence
advocates. By contrast, Taiwan's more independence-inclined officials and
interest groups reacted with great delight, stepping up their call for a joint
Taiwan-Japan-U.S. defense against Chinese threats. In a larger sense, the Feb.
19 statement:
* Bids adieu to Japan's illusory foreign policies of the past 60 years which,
under the postwar Constitution, have defined "trust in peace-loving countries
as the basis of Japanese security" and prohibited the maintenance of armed
forces and other war potential. It signals a shift to a more realistic foreign
policy based on comprehensive national power and on a robust alliance with the
U.S.
* Suggests an expansion of the Cold War strategy in the U.S./Japan security
alliance to one that assumes that rogue states, terrorists and other nonstate
actors are intent on using weapons of mass destruction, and that North Korea,
which possesses nuclear weapons, and China figure as rising regional threats.
The U.S./Japan alliance is increasingly not just for defending Japan's homeland
and surrounding areas, but for defending international security from Northeast
Asia to the Middle East. The new Japan/U.S. resolve of Feb. 19 will:
* Create an Asian international power structure that pits the U.S./Japan
alliance against a Chinese-Russian strategic partnership. Still, Russia,
despite its excellent ties to China, is also fearful of a strengthening China
and will tilt toward the U.S./Japanese camp when its national interests
dictate.
* Seek to maintain the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait and enhance
Taiwan's security if pro-Chinese forces inside Taiwan do not sell out to China.
* Strengthen the resolve of the Southeast Asian countries to remain
independent, discourage them from joining the Chinese bandwagon and becoming
China's dependent states, and delay the emergence of a hierarchical Asian world
order headed by "Imperial" China.
Alexander K. Young is professor emeritus at State University of New York.
The Japan Times: March 4, 2005
(C) All rights reserved
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