[LRflex] Re: Fictitious scenario based on the latest news
- From: David Young <telyt@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: leicareflex@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Fri, 04 May 2007 16:06:57 -0700
Douglas Sharpe postulated:
>I also read that ACM has recently sold off some of its interests and
>has an extra 320 million to play with, this is apparently what they
>are intending to use to complete the squeeze-out at Leica.
I think ACM realize that turning Leica around will not be a cheap or
easy task. But they have the deep pockets and commitment to do
it. That, of course, does not mean that they will succeed, but it
won't be for lack of trying. My great concern is that the
established culture, within Leica, will prevent them successfully
making the changes that are required.
>Allow me to take a look into my still somewhat misty crystal ball:
>There does now seem to be an enormous amount of good business sense
>pushing Leica into the present (what the future will bring is yet to
>be seen), and ACM/Kaufmann/Socrates didn't get rich by just messing
>about, which unfortunately also tells us that if Leica doesn't begin
>to make some kind of ROI then it will no longer be a long drawn out
>dying by inches when it comes to the crunch.
Agreed. If it comes to the crunch... Leica will be there one day -
and not the next.
>What I do however get an inkling of is that when Weller does the
>precision engineering, Via Optic the coating, plastics, sensors and
>basic optics then the bits left over for Leica camera are assembly,
>R&D and marketing. The only thing missing is a precision glass and
>lens manufacturing division, although that could easily be tacked on
>to Via Optic, many asphericals these days are cast or moulded (even
>at Leica) and most companies also produce decent lenses in new forms
>of plastics.
I know that Leica outsource their glass ... mostly from Schott, I
believe. I understand that they mould their aspherics on
site. Certainly, they do all their lens grinding on site. We
watched it being done, last fall. Leica is, at this stage, primarily
a lens maker ... moulding, grinding, polishing and assembling in
Solms, with metal parts from Uwe Weller or similar outfits.
The problem with Leica being a design/assembly house, and outsourcing
many parts, is that the profits from those parts go to other
firms. Owning big chunks of those suppliers gives ACM a profit at
every stage. Having them grouped together is expensive, at the
start, but cheaper in the long run. For instance, when a design
change is needed, say, in the way the lens mount is fastened to the
body, instead of faxing drawings back and forth, and spending long
hours on the phone (long distance), the designer simply picks up his
drawings and walks down a block or two, to Uwe Weller & Co. Done,
like dinner, in an hour! We won't even talk of the savings in shipping costs!
It is for this reason that Metz flash guns are the ones that work
with Leica ... or for that matter, are made for Leica. In Solms, the
Metz plant is just 200 meters away from Leica's!
>But assembly is too expensive a business to be done in Germany (I'd
>put my money on Hungary, Bulgaria or the Czech Republic for that end
>of the business, even Portugal is no longer a centre of cheap
>labour). What's left over is then precisely what could make Leica
>rich - R&D and consultancy for other manufacturers.
As for the assembly, you might well be right. Another plant, in the
cheaper parts of the EU would be ideal. They'd simply close the
Portugal plant, and ship out the machinery. However, I believe that
such low cost assembly would be limited to sub-assemblies. Final
assembly would still be done in Wetzlar, because if 1/2 the final
value (including the value of the bits made by Weller, Via Optic, et
al) or more is added in Germany, the product can be legally labeled
"Made in Germany", and that's a cachet they need as much as they need
Wetzlar on the product!
Right now, Portugal is making sub-assemblies in most cases, so that
the M8 can be "made in Germany". I cannot see the Bulgarians doing more.
>I also see a marketing concept for the whole park, with re-branding
>of various products under the (still) renowned name of Leica/Leitz.
>If this should be the case, we may even yet get to see AF Leica
>lenses for other marques (Zeiss do it, so why not Leica).
Moreover, the M8 has been (by Leica standards) a runaway success. My
sources tell me they can make money on or shortly after 5000
cameras.... and the intial shipment was 2,500 units. Production
capabilites are limited, at Leica, and as of now, just about
everything Leica is back ordered. A nice problem, if you have it!
I raised the idea, in Solms, about Leica glass in N or C mount. It
was pointed out to me, that even if it worked, and they got a small
share of the N&C market, they'd not have the manufacturing ability to
fill the demand! Zeiss is in that market, but the lenses are built
by Cosina. I'm not sure that Leitz are willing to go that route.
>I also predict that the binoculars and sports optics will be the
>next piece of the Leica cake to be either outsourced, sold off or to
>become a new company - that too would be excellent business sense.
Not sure I agree with you on this.... in the "old days" .... pre M8,
that is, it was the sports optics (binoculars & spotting scopes)
which kept Leica afloat. Sales are good, and the division is very
profitable. I cannot see them giving that one up.
Anyone else care to gaze into their crystal ball???
Cheers!
---
David Young,
Logan Lake, CANADA
Wildlife Photographs: http://www.telyt.com/
Personal Web-pages: http://www3.telus.net/~telyt
Stock Photography at: http://tinyurl.com/2amll4
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