[ppug] Re: Lay Systems
- From: "Daniel Nettle" <dannettle@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: <ppug@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Wed, 25 Aug 2004 17:59:26 +0800
Hi Chris
I ssume when you say POT, you mean a profit if laying? 1000% in 2 yrs is a
very nice return but I don't think you'll get anywhere near that after you fine
tune it. How does the system run if you restrict the sp to 5/1 and under? I
don't think -21% would be enough for the $2 to $11 range, you'd probably just
break even laying those or you might make a small profit but probably wouldn't
be worth the effort.
Dan
----- Original Message -----
From: Stebbo
To: ppug@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, August 25, 2004 4:26 PM
Subject: [ppug] Lay Systems
Hi All,
There seems to be a little bit of interest in this area, and it's something
that I've always been keen on doing... Like most who've tried in this area,
I've been able to develop some very *bad* systems which give quite nice losses,
but when trying to lay them always find that they're donkeys and the backers
want high odds.
I've been playing with this idea for a little while, and have come up with
the following figures over the past two years..
Bets: 3634
Race S/R: 9.9%
POT: -31.6%
LRO: 73
Although the loss isn't all that high, I wouldn't mind getting most of that
on that sort of turnover. The "system" hasn't been "tuned" in the sense of
looking for the areas which find losers, but rather is something that I threw
together out of "intuition"...
Almost half the bets are in the $2 to $11 range, where the S/R is 14% and the
POT is a "healthy" -21%. It's interesting that the POT on races 1 to 4 is
almost 40% on a poor s/r... Could be an interesting idea to just lay the first
few races each day and take any profit that arises.
I'd be interested in people's comments on whether this is layable on Betfair.
Cheers,
Chris.
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