Stebbo, What's the average win dividend or even closing price for losers? As you say there are some huge overlays on the donkeys which make them a betting proposition. The best scenario would be to find a massive losing system on horses under 5/1. For example today in the first at Victoria Park, Skandia was $1.70 on the tote, but I got a massive $2.66 & $2.70 on Betfair, that's nearly 60% improvement and it's really not that uncommon. This is why I'm into laying favourites only, because the payout on others is so destroying. The only time I back them is when I see huge overs like this. Regards, Lindsay. ----- Original Message ----- From: Stebbo To: ppug@xxxxxxxxxxxxx Sent: Wednesday, August 25, 2004 6:26 PM Subject: [ppug] Lay Systems Hi All, There seems to be a little bit of interest in this area, and it's something that I've always been keen on doing... Like most who've tried in this area, I've been able to develop some very *bad* systems which give quite nice losses, but when trying to lay them always find that they're donkeys and the backers want high odds. I've been playing with this idea for a little while, and have come up with the following figures over the past two years.. Bets: 3634 Race S/R: 9.9% POT: -31.6% LRO: 73 Although the loss isn't all that high, I wouldn't mind getting most of that on that sort of turnover. The "system" hasn't been "tuned" in the sense of looking for the areas which find losers, but rather is something that I threw together out of "intuition"... Almost half the bets are in the $2 to $11 range, where the S/R is 14% and the POT is a "healthy" -21%. It's interesting that the POT on races 1 to 4 is almost 40% on a poor s/r... Could be an interesting idea to just lay the first few races each day and take any profit that arises. I'd be interested in people's comments on whether this is layable on Betfair. Cheers, Chris. --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.744 / Virus Database: 496 - Release Date: 24/08/2004