[opendtv] Re: "we'll forever be stuck with by going ATSC"
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2005 09:42:15 -0500
At 3:14 PM -0500 1/12/05, Manfredi, Albert E wrote:
>Craig Birkmaier wrote:
>
>> The only incentive today to buy an ATSC receiver is
>> IF you own an HDTV and do not have access to HD
>> programming from any source other than local
>> broadcasters.
>
>Right. And when the FCC finally decides to shut off
>OTA NTSC, as part of an RF spectrum redistribution
>plan that it is in their charter to implement, then
>there will be other incentives to buy a ATSC
>receivers. All other OTA users will have to make the
>switch.
Wow...We're making progress!
According to the NAB, 90% of U.S. homes have access to five or more
HDTV broadcast stations. So please explain why only a few percent of
the consumers buying HD capable displays are buying integrated
receivers or ATSC STBs, given the FACT that they can get FREE HDTV?
By the way, buying an integrated receiver is not a guarantee that the
ATSC tuner will be used. There is an very high probability that only
the cable tuner will be used, just as the vast majority of HD capable
DBS receivers with integrated ATSC tuners are NOT connected to an
off-air antenna.
The FCC has NO control over the date at which NTSC will be turned
off. Congress pulls the strings here, and there is NO sign that there
is sufficient support in Congress to set a date certain to end the
NTSC service. It's easy to pass a sense of Congress resolution, but
actually passing a law to turn off NTSC is now the third rail in
Congress. Who would have thunk that Social Securtiy reform is likely
to happen before NTSC is retired...
>
>You seem to think these NTSC OTA users will all opt
>for cable and DBS. I think that if some do, there
>will be an equal number of cable or DBS users who
>will jump ship and go DTT. This seems very
>predicable to me, especially since it looks like
>the state of the art ATSC receivers are getting
>better reception than NTSC was providing. Those
>who went to cable just because they were getting
>ghosty NTSC OTA images might re-evaluate their
>situation.
What's the point. There is no threat to NTSC, thus no reason for
these laggards to do ANYTHING. But even the FCC is saying that this
audience will continue to decline. They project less than 10% of U.S.
homes will use the OTA service by the end of this decade.
>
>So at this point, the distribution of ATSC users
>will not be predominantly HDTV.
DUH.
>
>And all of this assumes that "all else remains
>the same." Broadcasters can also change the value
>proposition, perhaps, to attract other customers.
>You repeatedly have argued that they won't. So
>be it. That 15 percent OTA seems to be staying.
No it is projected to continue it's slow decline.
>I think Mark Schubin reported that of the 36" and
>bigger sets for sale, just about 50 percent have
>built-in tuners, as prescribed. I think it was 43
>percent last time he mentioned this. Close enough.
So what? Consumers are still buying the HD products without
integrated tuners by a huge margin. When the NTSC tuner disappears
in these model (i.e. they become monitors) we will get a true
indication of consumer intent. And remember, most of the sets with
integrated tuners will be connected to cable.
>
>All for the best, as it turns out, since it looks
>like the good receivers are only going to be
>reaching store shelves sometime in the near future.
Moist consumers do not have a clue as to which receivers are good and
which are not. It doesn't matter since most consumers do not intend
to use them.
>
>As to your philosophy of "HDTV experience," perhaps
>we can differentiate between "HDTV hardware" and
>"HDTV experience." I'm talking about hardware, and
>hardware that will make use of better than SD level
>inputs is on the increase.
Looks like we made some progress here too.
These smallish displays are great for EDTV and legacy SDTV. In a more
perfect world, we would be hearing that most cable networks are
upgrading that SDTV channels to EDTV. But the current trend is to
create niche HD channels to supplement the SDTV service that is
paying the bills.
Regards
Craig
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