[opendtv] Re: Zenith/LG NOT announcing new STB's based upon 5'th gen chip
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2005 09:21:40 -0500
At 1:10 PM -0500 1/12/05, Bob Miller wrote:
>I think that OnDigital failed for specific business decisions. If they
>had been able to offer a combination of free and subscription based
>service like is now being offered in the UK they would have succeeded.
>They also suffered from even lower power levels than the average ONE kW
>being used in the UK now.
Yes, the decision to pay too much for an exclusive football league
was a contributing factor. But FREE was never part of the OnDigital
equation, and they were unable to compete effectively with the more
capable BSkyB platform for subscribers. The power levels had very
little to do with it.
When the business model was changed to Free TV things changed
dramatically, forcing B-SkyB to announce their own FREE tier. The
same would happen here in the U.S., IF broadcasters actually worked
together to develop a nationwide system with at least 30 channels in
the free and clear.
But that is not likely to happen here because the government has
given broadcasters the leverage to use the limited FTA service to
drive up the price of subscription services via retransmission
consent.
>Starting in January 2001 using higher US power levels, SFNs, a receiver
>that would by now cost as little as $60 (COFDM HD, SD receivers are
>being sold retail not bought wholesale for $40 in the UK) an offering
>like USDTV with a 50 SD channels subscription service and all the free
>HD and SD also being offered and PVR functionality we could have had 90
>million receivers distributed in the US by the end of 2005.
>
>In the UK in just the last quarter they have SOLD not given away 1.6
>million receivers. That would be 9.6 million receivers in the US in just
>that one quarter. In the US over the last 4 years we would have had
>another factor. Not only would multiple ventures have been distributing
>free receivers, there would also be a mobile and portable market that
>does not exist in the UK.
>
>More free channels, the mobile market, a subscription service with
>content not available free ( a plus in my book) and free receivers all
>add up to an even higher sales rate than is occurring in the UK not a
>lower one. 90 million is the number you get if you just follow the sales
>rate in the UK and apply it to the US.
>
>Something north of 90 million is probably more accurate for the US from
>January 2001 thru the end of 2005.. By now you could have 20 to 30
>million mobile devices alone. The average home might have more than one
>device by the end of 2005. We will never know but the numbers coming out
>of other countries will continue to astound. All those portable media
>players, a new one introduced each day, would have OTA receivers in them
>in 2005. Those 60% of SUVs that Chrysler sells with rear seat DVD
>players in the roof would all have OTA receivers built in and the number
>would rise from 60% to 85%. The car market alone would have 5 to 10
>million receivers in them by the end of 2005.
>
>No I think I have estimated a low number with 90 million.
Pure speculation, based on the unrealistic premise that the big media
conglomerates would be willing to support ANY of this.
Most people in the U.S. pay for TV...
Embrace and extend. Embrace and extend.
In the U.S. IPTV will be the bypass technology that will bring the
entrenched oligopolies down
Regards
Craig
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