[opendtv] Re: Zenith/LG NOT announcing new STB's based upon 5'th gen chip
- From: Bob Miller <bob@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Tue, 11 Jan 2005 14:28:28 -0500
Manfredi, Albert E wrote:
>Craig Birkmaier wrote:
>
>
>
>>>A simple answer is: because the marketplace works.
>>>If they don't offer the good stuff, you can bet
>>>someone else will.
>>>
>>>
>>What?
>>
>>FIRST, this is not the workings of a "marketplace."
>>This is an attempt by government to set industrial
>>policy and to force consumers to purchase something
>>they do not want or need.
>>
>>
>
>It's both, Craig. Just as it was in Berlin.
>
>I don't subscribe to the school of thought that every
>law is a reason to don my fatigues, pick up my AK-47,
>and go on the lookout for "black helicopters." The
>FCC has a mandate to manage the public spectrum, and
>the marketplace responds accordingly. Just as it did
>in Berlin. Go to the mabb site and see if there was
>any public demand for DTT in Berlin, *before* they
>started shutting off the PAL service.
>
>That's why manufacturers will sell products that work.
>
>
>
I think that less than 5% of Berliners were using OTA before DTT was
started. At nine months and the analog cutoff 13% of Berliners had an
OTA receiver. The demand for receivers because of the turnoff of analog
would not have been more than 5% if it was the threat of turnoff that
drove sales. Yes just before and after turnoff sales were affected but
demand was driven by the product, 30 channels of free OTA STV.
In The UK there was no analog turnoff and sales of receivers continue to
accelerate with a receiver going for $37.53 and $56.29 pre Christmas. I
think you had to buy $50 worth of merchandise to get the $37.53 price.
As Craig mentioned sales for the quarter exceeded 1.3 million up to
12/11/04. That would suggest 1.6 million for the quarter, 4 million for
the year and 5.5 million next year. 11.5 million the first three years
or in US terms 69 million. What if we had been at it for the last 5
years instead of the UK's 2? What if we had COFDM for the last 5 years?
How many USDTV's would there have been created if we could have had a
business plan that made sense?
USDTV almost gives their 8-VSB receivers away now at $19.95. Their cost
is close to or just over $150 per. Our cost for COFDM HD receivers in
2001 was $140 in quantity. Our plan at the time called for giving away
the receiver. Actually the customer would pay for it with a one or two
year subscription.
What if there had been 10 USDTV ventures over the last 5 years offering
free COFDM HD receivers? That is an even better deal than what is being
offered in the UK. I suggest that by the end of 2005 our digital
transition would have been over a full year ahead of the 2006 deadline.
We would have 90 million receivers distributed by the end of 2005. The
only controversy left would be that many homes had 2 to 5 receivers and
that the 85% still had not been met. But of course the whole deadline
thing would be passe. Broadcasters would already have been turning off
their analog transmitters as fast as they could in many markets.
May sound crazy but so did the numbers being racked up in the UK every
quarter. I thought I was way out on a limb when I predicted 1 million
for the last quarter of 2004 in the UK and we are going to be 60% over
that. Next year could be as I predict, 5.5 million or maybe it will be
10 million in the UK. Why not? Every time I come up with a crazy number
the beat it.
>>Second. How do OTA ATSC broadcasts qualify as "the
>>good stuff?" If this is "the good stuff," why do 85%
>>of U.S. homes pay extra for the "other" stuff?
>>
>>
>
>This is getting pretty tiresome.
>
>Some, or even many, of that 85 percent use or can use
>OTA as well as their umbillicals. DBS and cable
>customers. In any event, most of the components of the
>ATSC receiver, and the majority of the royalty costs,
>are shared with the cable receiver. And of course,
>combined DBS and ATSC receivers have existed for eons
>now.
>
>The plug and play concept depended on the cable
>agreement, to make it beneficial to the majority.
>As the STMicroelectronics and LG offerings prove
>conclusively, a cost effective solution that
>incorporates *two-way* cable interfaces, along with
>a good ATSC interface, is feasible.
>
>
>
>>>As it's critical to the success of anyone selling
>>>OTA TV equipment. DBS systems are HD challenged.
>>>If they can't depend on the OTA path today, it's
>>>at least in part due to inadequate receivers.
>>>
>>>
>>Exactly! And this is one of the major reasons that
>>there are very few people trying to sell OTA TV
>>equipment of the ATSC variety.
>>
>>
>
>As usual, you miss the point. DBS services *want* to
>be able to use OTA for the local HD content. If that
>option is made available, they will use it. What's
>the big deal? They already have to install a dish
>antenna. What's an extra UHF yagi going to cost
>them? (Or a simple loop antenna.)
>
>It might come as a surprise to you, but I have no
>vested interest in helping OTA service to fail and
>force people to become pregnant with subscription
>services. I don't skip around gleefully every time
>some trade journal hack writes an article about
>the supposed decline in broadcast viewership. They
>are always discredited by more balanced articles
>anyway.
>
>Similarly, the fact that 55 percent of vehicles
>sold last year were SUVs only makes me more opposed
>to those monstrosities, not the other way around.
>I just can't understand why you keep throwing
>around this 85 percent figure, as if it were some
>sort of proof of great taste, or blue blood, or
>anything other than the strictly average desire of
>the strictly average working stiff. Who then
>predictably complains about the fact that the
>rates keep going up. Wow. What a surprise.
>
>Bert
>
>
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