[opendtv] Re: Zenith/LG NOT announcing new STB's based upon 5'th gen chip
- From: "John Willkie" <JohnWillkie@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2005 09:19:08 -0800
Consumers - given a choice -- would never say that 8-VSB doesn't work. And,
the U.S., apparently, will be the only country (save perhaps Taiwan, which
ain't a country) that will ever permit 8-VSB and OFDM modulation to
co-exist.
John Willkie
----- Original Message -----
From: "Craig Birkmaier" <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, January 12, 2005 5:55 AM
Subject: [opendtv] Re: Zenith/LG NOT announcing new STB's based upon 5'th
gen chip
> At 2:28 PM -0500 1/11/05, Bob Miller wrote:
> >In The UK there was no analog turnoff and sales of receivers continue to
> >accelerate with a receiver going for $37.53 and $56.29 pre Christmas. I
> >think you had to buy $50 worth of merchandise to get the $37.53 price.
> >As Craig mentioned sales for the quarter exceeded 1.3 million up to
> >12/11/04. That would suggest 1.6 million for the quarter, 4 million for
> >the year and 5.5 million next year. 11.5 million the first three years
> >or in US terms 69 million. What if we had been at it for the last 5
> >years instead of the UK's 2? What if we had COFDM for the last 5 years?
> >How many USDTV's would there have been created if we could have had a
> >business plan that made sense?
>
> How many USDTVs would fare as well as On Digital did?
>
> While I admire your enthusiasm for a transmission system that works,
> this aspect of the "product" is only important to consumers when it
> DOES NOT work. Consumers could care less about the "technical
> infrastruture;" what they care about is the content and the value
> proposition.
>
> OnDigital DID NOT provide a compelling value proposition; it plodded
> along while BSkyB walked off with 80% or more of the subscription DTV
> market in the U.K.
>
> Freeview dramatically changed the value proposition (there is
> something appealing about "FREE"); as a result it has grown to become
> the 10 largest DTV deployment in the world.
>
> >
> >USDTV almost gives their 8-VSB receivers away now at $19.95. Their cost
> >is close to or just over $150 per. Our cost for COFDM HD receivers in
> >2001 was $140 in quantity. Our plan at the time called for giving away
> >the receiver. Actually the customer would pay for it with a one or two
> >year subscription.
>
> And how is USDTV doing?
>
> Last i checked they had 10,000 subscribers in three markets, where
> they can reach nearly 2,000,000 homes; that 0.5% market penetration.
> Sadly, this may be the largest deployment of ATSC receivers, but it
> is not exactly setting the world on fire.
>
> >
> >What if there had been 10 USDTV ventures over the last 5 years offering
> >free COFDM HD receivers? That is an even better deal than what is being
> >offered in the UK.
>
> You mean the On Digital deal that failed?
>
> >I suggest that by the end of 2005 our digital
> >transition would have been over a full year ahead of the 2006 deadline.
> >We would have 90 million receivers distributed by the end of 2005. The
> >only controversy left would be that many homes had 2 to 5 receivers and
> >that the 85% still had not been met. But of course the whole deadline
> >thing would be passe. Broadcasters would already have been turning off
> >their analog transmitters as fast as they could in many markets.
>
> Sorry Bob but I do not think you can justify this assertion based on
> the notion of using the broadcast spectrum to deliver a PAID
> multichannel service that competes with far more capable cable and
> DBS competitors. If on the other hand, U.S. broadcasters had been
> offering a reliable FREE multichannel service, I suspect that it
> would be doing as well as Freeview. I seriously doubt that this would
> have resulted in the sales of 90 million receivers; 20-30 million
> would be a more realistic estimate.
>
> >May sound crazy but so did the numbers being racked up in the UK every
> >quarter. I thought I was way out on a limb when I predicted 1 million
> >for the last quarter of 2004 in the UK and we are going to be 60% over
> >that. Next year could be as I predict, 5.5 million or maybe it will be
> >10 million in the UK. Why not? Every time I come up with a crazy number
> >the beat it.
>
> Its amazing what can happen when the value proposition improves...
>
> Regards
> Craig
>
>
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