[opendtv] Re: Zenith/LG NOT announcing new STB's based upon 5'th gen chip
- From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "OpenDTV (E-mail)" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 11 Jan 2005 18:01:55 -0500
Bob Miller wrote:
> I think that less than 5% of Berliners were using
> OTA before DTT was started. At nine months and the
> analog cutoff 13% of Berliners had an OTA receiver.
> The demand for receivers because of the turnoff of
> analog would not have been more than 5% if it was
> the threat of turnoff that drove sales. Yes just
> before and after turnoff sales were affected but
> demand was driven by the product, 30 channels of
> free OTA STV.
Just before each phase of the analog turnoff, which
occurred in two phases, sales saw a spike.
The number of OTA users, according to their report,
was 8.9 percent before DTT started. And they gained
more users after, as some folk with cable and DBS
augmented with DTT receivers.
I doubt you can make the case that DTT stole cable
or DBS users. They at least supplemented these. The
numbers in the mabb report (probably dated now)
are:
60 percent of DVB-T STB sales went to OTA-only users
26 percent went to cable users
14 percent went to DBS users
And in the US, where cable and DBS households are
already being supplemented by NTSC OTA, or ATSC,
this should also be the case. Especially as ATSC
receivers improve. And even more especially as
more and more millions of people buy ED or HD
capable monitors, which show up the poor quality
of NTSC OTA programs and SD DBS images all too
clearly.
In Berlin, analog users had 12 channels to choose
from before the transition. To those 8.9 percent
of viewers still OTA, 12 channels was probably
enough. It took analog shutoff to make them switch,
and with the switch came a demographic shift too
(to the "under 50s" group).
It's all about momentum. The combination of
good, affordable receivers and analog shutoff is
what created this momentum in Berlin. If these
good receivers would finally reach the press
hypesters and the store shelves, we'll see the
same effect here.
The UK experience is different. There is a culture
there of free TV that doesn't exist either here or
in Germany. That's why the Berlin example is more
applicable to our situation, IMO.
Bert
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