[opendtv] Re: UK DTV: 250,000 STBs a month

  • From: Bob Miller <bob@xxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 00:53:19 -0400

Terry Harvey wrote:

>I applaud the uptake of DTV receivers in the UK.
>
>However, Bob, I do not think that the choice of modulation would have made 
>any impact on terrestrial DTV uptake in the US. US broadcasters are 
>indifferent to OTA broadcasting: they view it only as a means to secure 
>cable carriage.
>
>If US broadcasters really cared about the future of their industry, they 
>would have promoted digital OTA, pushed harder for better production 
>quality and extended services etc.(the often upconverted MPEG-NTSC 
>mutilation is dire),  To date the broadcasters have not done so and as a 
>result US terrestrial DTV continues to languish.
>
>Terry Harvey
>
>At 01:50 PM 10/21/2004 -0400, you wrote:
>  
>
>>dmenolan wrote:
>>
>>    
>>
>>>Today's paper edition of the UK broadcast magazine reports that Freeview
>>>STBs are now selling at the rate of 60,000+ a week with minimum STB price=
>>>s
>>>now at UK =A325. Freeview is expected to overtake Sky DBS provider by 12/=
>>>05
>>>
>>>Kind Regards,
>>>
>>>Dermot Nolan
>>>
>>>      
>>>
>>Was predicting a million would be sold in this fourth quarter. If the
>>third quarter came in at 650,000 as I think it will this will approach 6
>>million receivers sold in just over two years. That would be 36 million
>>in the US.
>>
>>Starting in 2001, with COFDM allowed,  the US would be over 50 million
>>receivers sold by now. With ventures like USDTV offering subscription
>>based services and free receivers that number would be far higher. We
>>could be approaching the magic 85% already.
>>
>>Broadcasters would be in line trying to turn off their analog
>>transmitters pre deadline. There would be no mandate just lines this
>>Christmas for the most sought after COFDM receivers, DTV sets, portable,
>>HD and mobile. And next Christmas we could look forward to HDTV on our
>>cell phones.
>>
>>http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/10-21-2004/0002290872&EDATE=
>>
>>    
>>
Well Terry I disagree and think that a similar uptake in 5th gen 
receivers will take place starting next year in the US. In fact I will 
predict that the US sale of OTA receivers will pass sales of UK 
receivers within 12 months of introduction and will pass UK sales in 
relative terms  (six times sales of UK) within 24 months of introduction.

IMO the lack of a decent OTA receiver was virtually the entire problem 
in the US transition and the introduction of a decent receiver will so 
completely change the dynamics that it will be obvious.

Bob Miller
 
 
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