[opendtv] Six years on
- From: dmenolan <dmenolan@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: Open DTV list <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>, Nat Ostroff <nostroff@xxxxxxxxxx>, Frank Eory <frank.eory@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Fri, 15 Oct 2004 06:32:45 -0400
I read with interest the current spirited debate between Barry, John, Fra=
nk
and Nat on the 8VSB/COFDM issue. Six years on from the initial launch of
digital tv in the UK and the US a lot has happened. But Frank's telling
comments about the comparative economics of COFDM and 8VSB have, as I hav=
e
always said, been proved correct in spades. =
The system which worked first, had most flexibility, was widely adopted,
would enjoy huge R+D spend, and would clean up. COFDM is now a commodity
technology. Outside the US, Canada, S Korea and Mexico DVB-T has cleaned
up. =
And the problems with impulse noise have been fixed: the Philips impulse
noise killer chip is in the Philips and new Hauppauge STB which retail fo=
r
=A380.
It is clear that LG will be able to offer good indoor reception with the
fifth generation 8VSB receiver maybe for $300. COFDM indoor reception is
under $75. =
But the main issue is the US is a cable/satellite society: therefore a
commercially differentiated DTV proposition should with the US power leve=
ls
have leveraged portable and mobile reception. Compare Germany and The
Netherlands. =
A commercial trick has been missed and others such as Qualcom and Crown
Castle and their cellular backers will inherit the earth probably with a
DVB-H solution in the US. And as Nat said the OTA broadcasters will take =
a
thorough hammering. Probably not what NAB and MSTV had in mind, but then
foresight has not been their forte.
Equally it is very clear to me that there are now successful business
models for terrestrial digital systems: the experience in the UK with
Freeview and DAB proves it.
* Make the system work technically
*Make the content free
*Introduce new services not available in analogue, not just a pretty
pictures simulcast.
*Make the adapters very low cost.
*Market the system all the time on air
Freeview has quadrupled the number of UK DTV viewers in TWO years to the
point where it will catch DBS in a couple of years and now the vendors ha=
ve
confidence to embed the COFDM tuner in a very wide range of LCDs and
plasmas. CRT based IDTVs are toast. This is now virtous circle economics
and I notice that a lot of the adapters on sale are designed for
international markets. Further scale economies. I understand that Dixons
has now set the purchasing price of the adapters from the vendors at =A32=
0,
talk about aggressive!
Worldwide the number of DVB-T receivers in use is probably between ten an=
d
fifteen times the installed ATSC base. And this gap will widen. And in th=
e
ten months that ISDB-T has been on air in Japan twice as many ISDB-T COFD=
M
receivers have been sold as have ATSC receivers since 1998: another telli=
ng
testimony to the power of COFDM.
And there are other developments too:
*Commercialisation of diversity COFDM reception which gives 6-9dB gain an=
d
has been demonstrated to provide excellent mobile reception in SUVs aroun=
d
the world. Soon in STBs, portable TVs, SUVs and laptops. This has also no=
w
been demonstrated in ISDB-T as well with identical performance gains.
* The launch of a 7day Freeview EPG service, complete with regional
insertions, will stimulate a free PVR market. Many PVRs are now on sale f=
or
around =A3200. By itself this development will probably undermine the cur=
rent
economics of commercial television as subscription based PVRs will remain=
niche products when there is a free alternative.
* An optimised standard for handheld mobile, DVB-H, which is really an
optimised spinoff of DVB-T *AND* ISDB-T. This has savvy broadcasters and
cellular operators salivating and explains the rash of worldwide field
trails including the USA. And I can see viable business models for mobile=
television: I have no doubt that Qualcom, Crown and others will show some=
gold old fashioned American ingenuity in that arena from which others wil=
l
learn.
As to local and regional DTT broadcasting: in the UK they have had that
since 1998 and the current EPG service is fully regionalised as the
commercial broadcasters have local ads, local news, local sports, etc. Of=
course there are differences betwen PSIP and DVB-SI , but they could have=
been overcome.
Did the US make the right choice in staying the course with 8VSB?
The entirely predictable choice was made as we now see with some quite
predictable and some unforeseen consequences.
The next six years will be even more 'interesting':
Will NTSC really be switched off? Will ATSC gain any real market share?
Will OTA broadcasting survive? Will the looming mobile COFDM competitors
inherit the earth?
Kind Regards,
Dermot Nolan
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