At 8:48 PM -0800 1/30/10, Kon Wilms wrote:
On Thu, Jan 28, 2010 at 5:48 AM, Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:If I had told Mike Tsinberg and the rest of the video and CE industry in 1992, that people would be editing HD video programs on their MacBook Pros by 2007, I would have been told I was crazy. Actually most of these folks did think I was crazy.Being a futurist is a simple occupation. You make outlandish claims -- if they are correct you are lauded for it, if they are not.. no-one will remember and you save face.
No, that is the stuff of palm readers and the like.What I did was extrapolate where we were headed based on existing technology and verifiable trends such as Moore's Law. And I was aided and abetted in this by working with companies that were exploiting these trends. It was not difficult or risky, other than predicting the exact time frame when the stuff I was writing about would happen.
The most difficult part of figuring all of this out was how "techno-politics" would accelerate or delay these trends.
The iPad looks to me like those remotes they sell online for grandma and grandpa.. with the oversize buttons http://www.dynamic-living.com/product/oversized-tv-remote/FROOGLE/ Except the literal substitution is massive icons. Sigh.
Limited vision.You are trying to draw a parallel between a purpose built piece of hardware versus a programmable device limited only by the visions of those who will exploit it.
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