[lit-ideas] Re: What's happening in Japan
- From: John McCreery <mccreery@xxxxxxx>
- To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Mon, 2 May 2005 15:42:11 +0900
On 2005/05/02, at 2:40, Eternitytime1@xxxxxxx wrote:
> SO, what is happening in Japan?
The aging society is the focus of considerable moral/political panic =20
in Japan, especially among the older of the aged conservative =20
politicians who still dominate the ruling party, the LDP. That said, =20
there is real cause, if not for panic, for serious concern.
According to the official Statistical Handbook of Japan (http://=20
www.stat.go.jp/english/data/handbook/c02cont.htm#cha2_2)
> In terms of age composition, Japan was characterized by a standard =20
> and broad-based population pyramid in the 1950s. However, the shape =20=
> of that pyramid began changing rapidly as the nation's birth rate =20
> and death rate declined. In 2003, population of the elderly (65 =20
> years and over) was 24.31 million citizens and constituted 19.0 =20
> percent of the total population, its largest scale on record in =20
> either number or percentage terms. The speed of aging of Japan's =20
> population is much faster compared with Western countries. Although =20=
> the population of the elderly in Japan accounted for only 7.1 =20
> percent of the total population in 1970, 24 years later in 1994, it =20=
> had almost doubled in scale, to 14.1 percent. The elderly =20
> population is expected to continue expanding rapidly in the years =20
> ahead, topping the 20 percent level by 2006. In other countries =20
> with aged population, the speed of aging has been much slower than =20
> that of Japan. For example, it took 85 years in Sweden, 61 years in =20=
> Italy and 115 years in France for the percentage of the elderly to =20
> increase from 7 percent to 14 percent of the population. These =20
> comparisons clearly highlight the rapid progress of demographic =20
> aging in Japan...
> Population growth in Japan has been patterned primarily on a =20
> natural rate of increase; international migration accounts for only =20=
> a marginal share. In 2003, the rate of natural growth measured 0.9 =20
> persons (per 1,000 population), and this was the lowest since the =20
> survey started in 1899.....
>
> The general decline in the birth rate is partly attributable to the =20=
> rise in the average age at which women bear their first child; the =20
> average age rose from 25.6 in 1970 to 28.3 years in 2002 and to =20
> 28.6 in 2003. The total fertility rate (the sum of the live birth =20
> rates by age for women aged 15 to 49; the hypothetical average =20
> number of children to be born to a woman over the course of her =20
> lifetime, assuming a consistent live birth rate by age in the =20
> future) was 2.16 in 1971. It has continued to decline and recorded =20
> 1.32 in 2002. This figure further declined to 1.29 in 2003, and =20
> dropped to the 1.2 range for the first time in the postwar period.
Why is this happening? The simple fact of the matter is that more and =20=
more young people are marrying latter or not at all and many who =20
marry do not have children. This is not, in fact, a new trend. =20
Marriage age began to rise and birthrates began to fall shortly after =20=
the end of the extremely brief (1947-1949) Japanese Baby Boom. Now, =20
however, it appears to be accelerating and with the Baby Boomers due =20
to start retiring in 2007, a year in which the Japanese population as =20=
a whole will already have begun to decline in absolute terms, the =20
sorts of aging-society concerns with which people in America are =20
familiar=81\paying for social security and healthcare for the elderly=81\=20=
here the problem is complicated by a declining and, it appears, =20
increasingly unmotivated labor force. Enjoying what are, after all, =20
pretty comfortable lives and seeing little chance for personal =20
advancement in a tight job market in which corporations are =20
restructuring and turning more and more to outsourcing and temp =20
staff, young people are, quite reasonably in my view, more concerned =20
with maintaining their current lifestyles than in seeking advancement =20=
or building for the future.
To the nation's aged political and business elite, survivors of the =20
"burning generations" whose passion and dedication fueled Japan's =20
post-WWII economic miracle, this situation is both frightening and =20
appalling. Unfortunately, they do what frightened people often do, =20
regress to the "solutions" of their youth=81\demanding a renewal of =20
discipline, a return to the postwar society in which men were men and =20=
women were women and women had more children and stayed home to =20
educate them while their husbands went off to work as dedicated =20
corporate warriors.
I could go on forever, but this should be enough to think about for =20
the moment. I am happy to try to answer further questions.
John McCreery
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