[lit-ideas] Re: Mideast: Ripples of War
- From: "Andy Amago" <aamago@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Tue, 1 Aug 2006 08:11:47 -0400
I love your quoting all the nonsequiturs that I didn't write. I said Ricks
said that the worst case scenario would be a pan-Arabic leader who would unite
the Arab world. A worst case scenario is a bad thing Lawrence.
You want them to fight on our terms. So did the British want the American
colonists, also largely guerrillas, to fight on their terms. Give them a few,
more than a few, jet fighters and maybe they can. Until they, they will ignore
your advice and do the best they can with what they have.
I heard another interview this weekend, I don't remember his name and it's not
worth remembering, that the U.S. won every war it ever fought and that's why
we'll win Iraq. He began with the War of 1812 (which in fact we lost) and
spent literally about 15 minutes of the hour listing all the actors in WWII who
enlisted. When you're short on facts, you fill space somehow. He had a very
supportive audience, but one person did ask how he felt about our losing the
Vietnam War, so which he replied that the Vietnam War wasn't really a war. The
Cold War was a war and we won that. Anyone can spin anything. So tell me
again my nonsequiturs, Lawrence. I guess it's your equivalent of listing
actors who enlisted.
----- Original Message -----
From: Lawrence Helm
To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: 8/1/2006 12:45:33 AM
Subject: [lit-ideas] Re: Mideast: Ripples of War
Irene, it would be marvelous if a ?pan-Arabic leader like Saladan? emerged to
unite the Arabian masses. We have only been looking at the dark side of
Islamism, that it embraces seventh century social and political standards. The
good side is that their ability to fight is centered in the same century. They
can?t fight a modern Western army. Look at the evidence: What did Arabian
armies do against Israel? What did Iraqi armies do against the U.S.? They
bluster, they say they are winning, but they are slaughtered. It is pitiful.
They can?t fight a modern war. No, no, Irene, a Saladan arising in the present
day Middle East, unless he arises with a necklace of atomic weapons, would be a
disaster for your Militant Muslims.
What the Middle Eastern Militants are good at is blowing themselves up. They
should stick to what they know.
And now to forestall a series of non-sequiturs from Irene, I shall attempt to
anticipate so as not to have to reply to them:
If you want to advance the non-sequitur that what Hezbolah (not an army facing
a Western army) is doing, that was discussed after reading Bevin Alexander?s in
The Future of Warfare: Invading a nation will not be successful if the invaded
nation is willing to mount a guerilla offensive to wear down the invaders. The
purpose of the guerillas is not to defeat the invaders, they can?t, but they
can cost them money and make it too expensive for them to stay. Hezbollah is
capable of doing that in the midst of Lebanon. But they may not be able to
manage that in the regions they fully control.
And lest you go off onto another non-sequitur by saying that is what we (the
U.S.) have encountered just that in Iraq, that is not what we have encountered
(Bevin Alexander discusses the difference). Our present purpose is to train
the Iraqis so they can deal with their own insurgents. Guerilla offensives are
successful because they have the support of a civilian population that is
hostile toward the alien invaders, but if the Iraqis can be brought up to the
point where they can deal with this mixture of Sunni insurgents and Al-Quaeda
volunteers, then America can step aside. No one will be able to pretend what
is facing the Iraqi government is an insurgency.
And lest you go off onto another non-sequitur by saying that the Sunnis, if
they unified their opposition to the Iraqi government would be insurgents, if
that were to happen you would not have a mere insurgency but a civil war, which
is possible, but that is another subject.
Lawrence
From: lit-ideas-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:lit-ideas-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] On
Behalf Of Andy Amago
Sent: Monday, July 31, 2006 8:59 PM
To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [lit-ideas] Re: Mideast: Ripples of War
I heard an interview with Tom Ricks who wrote the book called Fiasco, The
American Military Adventure in Iraq. His worst case scenario is that a
pan-Arabic leader like Saladin might emerge to unite the messes that the U.S.
and its joined at the hip ally Israel created. That's worst case scenario,
Stan, but most likely higher than the 1% probabilities that we're defending
ourselves from in this War on Terror. Sleep tight, Stan.
----- Original Message -----
From: Stan Spiegel
To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx;Bonnie Spiegel;David Cowen;Margaret Spiegel
Sent: 7/31/2006 11:48:39 PM
Subject: [lit-ideas] Mideast: Ripples of War
Christopher Dickey and Rod Nordland's article in this week's Newsweek is a
frightening assessment of what's happening in the Middle East. Frightening for
Israel especially. I usually sleep like a log. Now I'm not sleeping very well.
- S.S.
Take a look at this:
"No one denies that Hizbullah started the fight, with its unprovoked incursion
into Israel, and no one doubts that Israel can win it, at least in conventional
terms. But that's not what matters as much as public perceptions, and the
impact those perceptions have from Tehran to Cairo. The conflagrations in Gaza,
Lebanon and Iraq risk converging, if not on the ground, then in that virtual
realityon satellite television and the Webwhere Al Qaeda and Hizbullah find
recruits for their global networks. Israel can bomb Lebanon's infrastructure
all it wants, but Hizbullah, which operates beyond the limits of a state,
ultimately has no infrastructure. Hizbullah's own rockets and missiles can miss
nearly all their targets, with comparatively little loss of life, but so long
as they keep firing, they shatter the myth of Israeli invincibility and win
friends and admirers in a radicalized Muslim world. "The Zionist enemy has not
been able to reach a military victo ry," said Hizbullah lead
er Hassan Nasrallah in a speech Friday on his organization's Al-Manar TV,
still broadcasting despite Israeli Air Force strikes that obliterated its
studios and transmission towers. "I'm not saying that. They said that. The
whole world is saying that."
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