On 8/14/06, Lawrence Helm <lawrencehelm@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Kagan has taught at West Point, is considered a distinguished military historian
Agreed. So we should take his views seriously. That does not mean, however, that we take them at face value.
Further, not having read the book, I rely on Bill Kristol's description of it,
"an integrated study of Napoleon's political diplomatic and military strategy, an educated history of the Napoleonic Era and educated diplomatic political and military history."
I note the absence in this description of any mention of population, a critical factor when military/intelligence analysts move from speculation about a potential enemy's intentions to the far more hard-nosed business of assessing capabilities.
For the sake of argument, let us assume that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad shares not only Napoleon's megalomania but also his military genius. What does he have to work with?
Googling leads me to two useful sources.
For the population of Europe in 1810: http://www.napoleon-series.org/research/abstract/population/population/world/c_world2.html
For the the population of the world in 2006-7:http://www.geohive.com/earth/pop_top50.aspx
From the first, I obtain the following statistics:
France 38,000,000 Russia 31,400,000 Austria 19,000,000 Great Britain 12,000,000 Spain 10,000,000 Ottoman Empire: Europe 8,000,000 Italy 6,400,000 Naples 6,000,000 Saxony 5,600,000 Prussia 5,000,000 Poland 4,500,000 Bavaria 3,231,573 Denmark 2,400,000 Portugal 2,000,000 Sweden 2,000,000 Switzerland 2,000,000 Westphalia 1,900,000 Holland 1,880,000
These show that, at the time of the Napoleonic Wars, France had the largest national population in Europe, a population larger than the combined populations of Austria, Great Britain and Prussia.
From the second source, I obtain the following statistics:
China 1,313,973,713 India 1,095,351,995 United States of America 298,444,215 Indonesia 245,452,739 Brazil 188,078,227 Pakistan 165,803,560 Bangladesh 147,365,352 Russia 142,893,540 Nigeria 131,859,731 Japan 127,463,611 Mexico 107,449,525 Philippines 89,468,677 Vietnam 84,402,966 Germany 82,422,299 Egypt 78,887,007 Ethiopia 74,777,981 Turkey 70,413,958 Iran 68,688,433
Where France was No. 1 in population in 1810, Iran ranks No. 18 in population in 2006. In 1810, Great Britain faced in France, an enemy with a population more than three times its own. In 2006, the United States faces in Iran an enemy with a population less than a third of its own.
To this we may add, of course, that in 1810, France and its European enemies were on a par when it came to military technology. Musket, bayonet and muzzle-loading cannon were pretty much all that anyone could muster. If we consider industrial base, defense spending, and advanced military technology, the imbalance between the US and Iran is far more lopsided than population alone would suggest.
This does not imply that Iran poses no danger. In an era of asymmetrical warfare and weapons of mass destruction, even a small nation with forces that see dying for their cause as glorious can do grievous harm to a larger and better equipped antagonist. It does, however, suggest that leaping to the conclusion that if Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a Napoleon wannabe, he poses the same level of threat to us that Napoleon posed to his enemies, the argument has become far-fetched, as arguments based solely on speculations about intentions often tend to be when capabilities are considered.
-- John McCreery The Word Works, Ltd., Yokohama, JAPAN
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