Actually there are more topics / sub-topics.
There is the topic as to whether current self-driving cars have sufficient
safeguards built into them to handle traffic in :
a.) mixed driving conditions (automatic cars mingled with human-controlled)
They probably aren't yet -- or at least, the question is very open
b.) whether they are even safe yet if all traffic could be confined to
automatic cars. Given no-driver trains and cranes seem to work well, they
almost certainly are.
We don't know about 10 year old self-driving cars simply because:
- there don't appear to be any which have lasted that long in the wilds
of traffic
- we don't know what rules / laws / checks and balances will apply to
self-driving cars
It's entirely feasible for example, that self-driving cars may be safer
than others in the near future because external controls may be able to run
remote checks on their electronic and mechanical conditions via computer
controls, and unsafe cars might even be able to be stalled by remote or
local software if checks find problems. The various bits of technology
for that actually exist in cars today -- remote comms, location finding,
remote stalling, computer checks on mechanical operations etc. They
just aren't all tied together completely via communications just yet.
That would suggest that 10 year old cars in future will be much safer than
10 year old cars today, at least in some important respects.
The big problem is still the car's occupant(s). Ways of providing checks
on drivers and the controls available to them seem more likely to be
improved with developments working towards self-driving vehicles. They're
less and less likely to give rise to increased safety risks, except in
sofar as they may increase traffic and hence increase the absolute numbers
of accidents.
Meanwhile, a good NBN could have been our best traffic safety control.
.
On 8 July 2016 at 08:13, Christine Kent <cmkentau@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
There are two different topics here.
There is the topic of whether fully functional brand new self-driving cars
area good enough. They probably are.
Then there is the topic of whether 10 year old highly electronic including
self-driving cars, improperly maintained, are good enough. They probably
are not.
Christine
*From:* austechwriter-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:
austechwriter-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] *On Behalf Of *Peter Martin
*Sent:* Thursday, 7 July 2016 10:46 PM
*To:* austechwriter@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
*Subject:* atw: Re: OT I hate it when I am this right
Warren and others. Just a small point about what may be a very large
difference.
Consider the average reaction time of human driver in an emergency
setting. Compare with possible reaction times in computer-controlled cars.
Assuming you're travelling at 80 kph - 100 kph, the human driver's
reaction time (seeing a danger till starting to hit the brakes) represents
a travelled distance of between 20 and 30 metres, even assuming relatively
fast reaction times.
I think it's fair to say that with entirely feasible designs, that
distance for an automated vehicle can be closer to -- what, 1 to 5 metres,
conservatively?.
(Is that unreasonable, given computer-controls?)
Given the laws of physics as we know them, actual braking time differences
after the reaction period may well be similar.
All else being equal, I think in an emergency, I might rather be in the
car that started braking 15 to 20 metres earlier..
-Peter M
On 7 July 2016 at 14:00, Warren Lewington <wjlewington@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Yeah. I was in the automotive electrical trade when the electronics and
computer revolution hit. And didn’t it hit. Really hard. It made my start
in the technical writing career I’ve had possible though. So I never
complained about it.
What I do remember is the myriad problems auto electricians made money out
of over the years engineers and manufacturers took to learn how to design
and manufacture electrical and electronic connections and devices that
could genuinely cope with vehicle environments.
And reliability. Well, in motor racing, the fuel injection, ignition and
other electronic systems we were starting to use were woeful. But they
improved. So did everything in fact. Bosch, Delphi, Delco, Mitsubishi
Electric, Yazaki, Nippon Denso, and some others, all contributed to the
developments and push forwards that leaves us with cars today that are
unbelievably reliable compared to what we had available in the 1980s even.
To that extent, my trade is dead. Except in niche areas where my skills
are still in some sort of demand.
Autocars are coming. Sooner than we think. They’ll be, neither perfect nor
without failures. But they’ll be, for most drivers in cities: godsends. I’m
fed up with city driving. I HATE IT. Getting into my personal transport,
telling it where I want it to go, and letting it take me there while I read
a book, do some work, write a post to austechwriter? Sounds awesome to me.
But I’ll not separate myself from my Mazda MX5 – because I love driving
cars fast, in the right places, and I was good at it. And I sort of still
am.
Warren.
PS: Australia has the highest rate of people killed by motor vehicles per
one hundred thousand, after America. Our car death rate is higher than
America’s firearm death rate per one hundred thousand people.
*From:* austechwriter-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:
austechwriter-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] *On Behalf Of *LIVERANI Petra
*Sent:* Friday, July 01, 2016 4:10 PM
*To:* austechwriter@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
*Subject:* atw: Re: OT I hate it when I am this right
Very sad. More information on the crash. Ironically, it seems that the
driver, Joshua Brown, had posted a video in May saying how the autopilot
function had saved him from an accident.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-01/tesla-driver-killed-while-car-was-in-on-autopilot/7560126
It seems that although the autopilot function isn’t perfect (and this is
very much emphasised by the company) the Model S is still a very safe car.
Accidents have been reported in Model Ss where it is surmised the occupants
would normally have died but didn’t. The supposed saving of their lives,
however, was nothing to do with autopilot. The trouble is that even if
Tesla say that you should always have your hands on the steering wheel,
etc, it will be virtually impossible for drivers to maintain normal
concentration and in a lapsed moment when autopilot fails they could have
an accident. Unfortunately, in the improvement process lives will be lost
and I’d say it is more likely than not that it will never achieve 100%
safety … but that’s hardly unexpected. Presumably, autopilot will save more
lives than it loses.
Petra Liverani
Technical Writer / UX Designer
TMC Systems Development
Operational Systems
Infrastructure and Services
*Transport for NSWT* 02 8396 1617 | *F* 02 8396 7950 |* M *0401 023 961
25 Garden St, Eveleigh NSW 2015
Use public transport... plan your trip at transportnsw.info
<http://www.transportnsw.info/>
*From:* austechwriter-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [
mailto:austechwriter-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
<austechwriter-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>] *On Behalf Of *Christine Kent
*Sent:* Friday, 1 July 2016 3:43 PM
*To:* austechwriter@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
*Subject:* atw: OT I hate it when I am this right
http://www.breitbart.com/news/tesla-driver-killed-on-autopilot-mode-probe-opened/
--
Christine
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