U.S. Satisfaction at 11% in Early January
by Frank Newport <https://www.gallup.com/people/item.aspx?a=100186>
Story Highlights
- 11% of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the
U.S.
- Satisfaction is down from 16% last month but similar to 13% last summer
- Donald Trump's four-year average satisfaction at 30%
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Before the Jan. 20 inauguration of Joe Biden as the
nation's 46th president, 11% of Americans said they are satisfied with the
way things are going in the U.S. This is down from 16% in December and
marginally lower than readings of 13% and 14% in July, August and September
last year, while remaining a few percentage points above the all-time low
of 7% recorded in 2008.
Line graph. Americans' satisfaction with the direction of the U.S. has
fallen to 11%, down from 16% last month.
The COVID-19 pandemic gripping the nation is clearly a factor in the very
low satisfaction reading -- as are the tensions caused by President Donald
Trump's failure to recognize the election results and the Jan. 6 invasion
of the U.S. Capitol, and the fact that the January reading came at a time
of transition in the transfer of power.
Last year began much more positively, with U.S. satisfaction readings above
40%
<https://news.gallup.com/poll/283958/satisfaction-surpasses-first-time-2005.aspx>
in each of the first three months of 2020, including a 45% satisfaction
measure in February, the highest since the George W. Bush administration.
But, with the bourgeoning recognition of the impact of the coronavirus last
spring, Americans' satisfaction with the direction of the U.S. began to
fall -- and has been at 20% or lower each month since May, with the
exception of a 28% reading in October and 21% reading in November.
Other factors likely behind the current 11% satisfaction reading include
worry about the nation's governance. Gallup's Jan. 4-15 survey was, for the
most part, in the field after the Jan. 6 insurrection and invasion of the
U.S. Capitol -- and in that same survey, Americans named the way the nation
is being governed
<https://news.gallup.com/poll/328754/americans-concern-grows-government-national-discord.aspx>
as the country's top problem.
Additionally, January is a transition month between administrations.
Satisfaction among those identifying with the party of the outgoing
president typically drops before satisfaction among those identifying with
the party of the incoming president begins to rise, thus keeping the
overall average satisfaction level low. Exemplifying this phenomenon, the
Jan. 4-15 data broken out by party show that Republican satisfaction with
the way things are going in the country has collapsed -- down to 14% --
while Democratic satisfaction remains extremely low at 5%.
Line graph. Republicans' satisfaction with the direction of the U.S. is
tied with independents' at 14%. Democrats' satisfaction is at 5%.
The same pattern is evident in previous presidential transition years. As
Trump prepared to take office in January 2017, just 22% of Republicans were
satisfied, a reading that jumped to 55% by February of that year. And in
January 2009, as Barack Obama was about to enter the White House, only 9%
of Democrats were satisfied, a figure that rose to 22% in February and to
50% by May of that year. The same pattern occurred in early 2001 and 1993.
It can be anticipated that satisfaction will increase in February and the
months following as President Biden settles into the White House (and as
Democrats take control of both houses of Congress), and as rank-and-file
Democrats' satisfaction begins to reflect more positive views of the way
things are going.
*Americans Are Intensely Dissatisfied*
Gallup occasionally follows the satisfaction question with a probe asking
Americans if they are "very" satisfied/dissatisfied or "just somewhat"
satisfied/dissatisfied. This probe has been included in surveys only on a
sporadic basis, so the results do not provide a comprehensive indication of
the strength of satisfaction over the years. But it is noteworthy that the
level of strong dissatisfaction in the current survey is extremely high,
with 66% of Americans saying they are very dissatisfied, higher than any
other measure in Gallup's trend. Meanwhile, 22% are somewhat dissatisfied.
This 3-to-1 ratio of strong to mild dissatisfaction is the highest such
ratio Gallup has measured. Previously, the highest ratio was 2-to-1 in
October 2011, when 57% of Americans were very dissatisfied and 28% were
somewhat dissatisfied.
On the other side of the ledger, Americans consistently are more likely to
say they are somewhat satisfied rather than very satisfied. Across the 27
times that Gallup has included the "very/somewhat" probe, there has never
been an instance where the very satisfied percentage outweighed the
somewhat satisfied percentage. Currently, 3% of Americans are very
satisfied while 8% are somewhat satisfied.
Republicans and Democrats at this point differ little in the intensity of
their satisfaction levels; Democrats are only modestly more likely to say
they are very dissatisfied than are Republicans.
Intensity of Satisfaction, by Party
Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied
% % % %
U.S. adults 3 8 22 66
Republicans 4 9 19 66
Independents 2 11 23 62
Democrats 1 4 22 73
Gallup, Jan. 4-15, 2021
*Trump's Term Average as High as Any Since George W. Bush's First Term*
The average satisfaction rating during Trump's term in office -- from
February 2017 through January of this year -- is 30%. That is below the
average satisfaction reading of 36% since Gallup began asking the question
in 1979. And, as noted, the 11% reading in the final days of Trump's
administration goes on record as one of the lowest in Gallup's trend. The
only lower readings came in October 2008 (7% and 9% in two separate
surveys) and in December 2008 (10%). The current 11% reading is tied with
the same result in November 2008 and in August and September 2011.
But average satisfaction during Trump's overall term turns out to be at
least marginally higher than the averages for each of Obama's two terms
(23% and 26%, respectively) and George W. Bush's second term (28%). This is
the case even though Trump's job approval rating was lower than Obama's in
both of his terms
<https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx>
(although higher than the 37% average approval for Bush during his second
term).
Satisfaction was significantly higher in Bush's first term (49%),
reflecting the rally effect seen across a number of measures after 9/11.
Gallup did not measure satisfaction on a routine, monthly basis before
2001, but the measures that were taken show high levels of satisfaction in
Bill Clinton's second term during the dot-com boom. In fact, the single
highest reading in Gallup's history was 71% in February 1999, reflecting
not only the booming economy but also the paradoxical positivity that came
after Clinton's impeachment trial. Satisfaction also reached the 50% to 60%
level at several points during George H.W. Bush's single term in office,
and in Ronald Reagan's second term.
*Summing It Up: What Does Satisfaction Tell Us?*
This measure of satisfaction with the way things are going in the nation
<https://news.gallup.com/poll/1669/General-Mood-Country.aspx> is important,
under the assumption that an optimal goal for any society is to maximize
citizens' social and political wellbeing. With that in mind, it is clear
that American society is not doing so well, as it has been 17 years since
more than half of Americans reported being satisfied with the state of the
nation.
The economy is clearly a major factor driving Americans' dissatisfaction;
many of the highest levels of satisfaction Gallup has measured came in
robust economic times, including in particular during parts of the 1980s
and the latter years of the 1990s. Americans also have evinced high levels
of satisfaction when challenged internationally, after 9/11 and after the
successful foreign interventions in the Gulf War.
The 45% satisfaction reading in February of last year reflected Americans'
recognition that the economy was in good shape, and it is possible that
satisfaction levels could have gone higher. But then came the pandemic,
which affected not only Americans' health, job situations and lifestyles,
but also the national economy. Trump's disputatious denial of the November
election results and insurrectionists' invasion of the U.S. Capitol had a
further negative effect, and he left office amid nearly record-low levels
of satisfaction and with his lowest personal job approval rating.
An obvious milestone for the nation's leaders going forward would be
satisfaction levels at the 50% level or higher. The rigid partisanship that
has typified Americans' attitudes in recent years makes that objective
difficult to reach, since those whose party is not in power find it hard to
bring themselves to be positive about any aspect of the way things are
going. However, if the pandemic is brought under control and the economy
strengthens in the months ahead, higher levels of satisfaction will almost
certainly follow.
*View complete question responses and trends (PDF download).*
<https://news.gallup.com/file/poll/328787/210125Satisfaction.pdf>
