[rollei_list] Re: OT: Slide Film and E6
- From: "Richard Knoppow" <dickburk@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: <rollei_list@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Mon, 24 Dec 2007 14:27:06 -0800
----- Original Message -----
From: "Eric Goldstein" <egoldste@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <rollei_list@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, December 24, 2007 7:52 AM
Subject: [rollei_list] Re: OT: Slide Film and E6
Last projections I saw about a year ago was that
traditional film was
roughly a billion dollar global market which is expected
to decline at
about 30% per annum. The decline will of course level out
at some
point; when and at what point requires a crystal ball to
project. But
this will make traditional film a viable market for
private companies
for a very long time to come...
Eric Goldstein
--
I wonder how long this was predicted to continue. The
decline in film sales was quite rapid but I suspect the
leveling out point may already have been reached. Since all
these predictions are for a situation which is nearly unique
it seems to me that the usual statistical predictions are of
limited value. While the comparisons to the transition in
electronics from tubes to transistors, or from steam to
deisel-electric locomotives is tempting the current
situation is not quite analagous. The first took more than
twenty years and tubes are still being made. The second was
very rapid for IMO three factors: it was overdue by twenty
years, the economic advantages of D-E locomotives could not
be fully relalized if steam was still being supported, and
one part of the impetus for changing over was the increasing
public demand for cleaning up the polution caused by
(especially coal burning) steam power. While the change was
not instant the bulk of steam was gone within about five
years and all in about ten.
---
Richard Knoppow
Los Angeles, CA, USA
dickburk@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
---
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