[ppug] Re: Roger Biggs laying horses
- From: "Daniel Nettle" <dannettle@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: <ppug@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sat, 28 Aug 2004 17:56:36 +0800
Yes I did thanks. I replied to your email address but looks like it got
lost on the way, I 've resent my reply.
Dan
----- Original Message -----
From: "Laurie McAnulty" <mcanulty@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <ppug@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, August 28, 2004 3:25 PM
Subject: [ppug] Re: Roger Biggs laying horses
> Hi Daniel
> I sent that info to you direct Thursday, did you receive it?
>
> Laurie
>
> Laurie McAnulty wrote:
>
> > No trouble Daniel I'll have a go at that for you & report by Friday at
> > latest
> >
> > Laurie
> >
> > Daniel Nettle wrote:
> >
> >> Hi Laurie
> >>
> >> Yeah I reckon you probably need 50-60% lot too. But it's so hard to
> >> find, I
> >> usually get to about 40-45% and hit a dead end. I have about 2 1/2
> >> yrs of
> >> Saturday data but only about 4 solid months of midweek data. I've got
a
> >> feeling the gold might be hiding in the midweek.
> >> BTW if you have enough midweek data, could you test horses that have
won
> >> their last 3 races. My feeling is the horse would be a big underlay
> >> when the
> >> avg punter looks at the formline. Looks like a good base on the
> >> limited data
> >> I have.
> >>
> >> Dan
> >> ----- Original Message ----- From: "Laurie McAnulty"
> >> <mcanulty@xxxxxxxxxx>
> >> To: <ppug@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> Sent: Tuesday, August 24, 2004 8:45 PM
> >> Subject: [ppug] Re: Roger Biggs laying horses
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>> Hi Daniel
> >>>
> >>> Probably the reason the thread died is that it is so hard to work out
a
> >>> decent lay system. I think my ratio of backing to laying systems is 7
> >>> backing to every one laying system.
> >>>
> >>> Further betfair is so generous on the backing side that I reckon you
> >>> need 50-60% LOT.
> >>>
> >>> I'd suggest you need a swag of data ( coupla years). Agree on avoiding
> >>> the longshots as double the tab odds are very common.
> >>>
> >>> I limit my tests by using max TAB $16 in PP when I'm doing a test.
> >>>
> >>> Laurie
> >>>
> >>> Daniel Nettle wrote:
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>> Hi Stebbo
> >>>>
> >>>> Yeah that's what I actually meant, I should have clarified that a bit
> >>>> better. There's no liquidity on the outsiders anyway. When I'm
> >>>> attempting to build a potential laying system, I stick to odds of
10/1
> >>>> and under, preferably under 5/1. My thoughts are that it needs to
> >>>> have a LOT of at least 40% to be viable to overcome the betfair
> >>>> commision and the fact you have to offer better prices than the TAB's
> >>>> to get matched.
> >>>>
> >>>> But if you stick to the market leaders, you can generally lay at 10%
> >>>> over or less. Sometimes I can lay at lower prices than the TAB.
> >>>>
> >>>> I'd love to get a discussion going on this if anyone's interested. I
> >>>> noticed a few threads in the archives on laying but the discussions
> >>>> didn't last very long.
> >>>>
> >>>> Dan
> >>>>
> >>>> ----- Original Message -----
> >>>> From: Stebbo <mailto:ppug@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >>>> To: ppug@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:ppug@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >>>> Sent: Thursday, August 19, 2004 5:21 PM
> >>>> Subject: [ppug] Re: Roger Biggs
> >>>>
> >>>> At 05:30 PM 19/08/2004, Daniel Nettle wrote:
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>>> Thanks for the tips Robert. Yes I do have the add ons. I mainly
> >>>>> brought one of Peter's books because I thought it might help me
> >>>>> find favourites not likely to win. My main interest is in laying
> >>>>> horses to lose on the exchanges. I brought PPP for this purpose
> >>>>> as soon as Betfair started covering Australian racing. I thought
> >>>>> it would be really easy to find a losing system but that hasn't
> >>>>> been the case. I think it would probably be actually easier to
> >>>>> back horses for a profit but now I'm determined to find a good
> >>>>> laying system/method.
> >>>>>
> >>>>
> >>>> Hi Daniel,
> >>>>
> >>>> finding losing systems is quite easy.... Finding losing systems
> >>>> with selections that aren't paying too much is the hard part.....
> >>>> I looked into this ages ago myself... the problem was that most of
> >>>> the horses that are almost guaranteed to lose are at very long
> >>>> odds, and often much longer odds than the totes.... I'm not
> >>>> prepared to lay a donkey at 100-1 just in case it wins.... I'd be
> >>>> wiped out in one go.
> >>>>
> >>>> Cheers,
> >>>> Chris.
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>
> >>> =====
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> >>>
> >>
> >>
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