[opendtv] Selling Out
- From: "Bob Miller" <robmxa@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Wed, 19 Dec 2007 19:33:47 -0500
Lin Broadcasting and Pappas are selling their stations or at least talking
about it.
Anyone know of other broadcasters abandoning ship?
Lin sold out their 31 700 MHz licenses for $32 million or about 10% of what
Aloha got for them from AT&T a few weeks later. Aloha had paid under $100
million for the other 250 licenses they already had. The original winning
net bids for Aloha's 281 licenses in Auctions 44 and 49 totaled around $50
million and were sold to AT&T for $2.5 billion. That is 50 times as much or
a 5000% increase. Auctions 73/76 are about to put a more accurate price on
this spectrum of at least 100 times the prices paid on average in Auctions
44/49.
But I will still stick with my prediction that post analog turnoff plus a
few years this spectrum will be worth 1000 times what its winning bids were
in Auctions 44/49. I suggested to Qualcomm before Auction 44 that Channel 55
was worth between 100 and 1000 times what it could be won for. As I told
Qualcomm before Auction 44, if we bid on channel 55 we would be the only
bidder and would win all six regions on first bid at a total cost of $25.5
million. Channel 55 will be worth at least $25 billion by 2012 IMO. Aloha
bought one region, the Pacific, in Auction 44 for minimum bid around $4.5
million. They probably sold it to Qualcomm for almost as much as they paid
for all other licenses they won in both Auction 44 and 49 or $50 million or
more.
Broadcasters like Lin and Pappas selling gold for $.10 on the dollar IMO.
And that is before AT&T could build out a broadcast network worth 50 times
the $2.5 billion they paid Aloha, again IMO. 50 times what they paid Aloha
after Aloha made 50 times what they won the licenses for. $50 million in
2003 gets $75 Billion in 2012 IMO.
Even if AT&T is conflicted about what to do with the spectrum they have
purchased, broadcast DTV, cellular or broadband Internet, since the cost of
building out a broadband network is large you will see them building at
least a moderate broadcast venture built possibly on HiWire. All inquiries
about selling 54/59 channel spectrum to AT&T are going to a new unit not the
normal cellular unit as in the past and inquiries to me about sale of
spectrum take for granted that AT&T will use the spectrum bought from Aloha
for broadcasting.
Broadcasters are going to look back in wonder at the business they are
abandoning IMO.
Bob Miller
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